January 03, 2007

Four games this week: Saturday Kansas City at Indianapolis - 4:30pm ET Dallas at Seattle - 8:00pm ET Sunday New York Jets at New England 1:00 pm ET New York Giants at Philadelphia 4:30 pm ET Here's how she works. You pick who you think will win, and by how much. You then get points based on the result: * picked the winner? You get 1 point. * picked the winner, and a spread within the Marginof Error? You get 2 points. * picked the winner, and you nailed the spread right on? You get 3 points. * didn't pick the winner, but nailed the spread right on? You get 1 point. What's the Margin of Error? It's a window around the spread that's defined as: spread - round(0.3 * spread) < margin of error=spread + round(0.3 * spread)

posted by apoch at 08:00 AM on January 03, 2007

Thanks for stepping up, apoch. Indy by 6 Seattle by 3 NE by 9 Philly by 3. Hmm, boring picks. Upsets come next round.

posted by danostuporstar at 08:47 AM on January 03, 2007

Kansas City by 3 Seattle by 2 New England by 7 Philadelphia by 2

posted by NoMich at 09:04 AM on January 03, 2007

Indy by 10 Seattle by 6 New York Jets by 3 Philadelphia by 14

posted by MrFrisby at 09:24 AM on January 03, 2007

Thanks, apoch. Indy by 3 Seattle by 13 NE by 14 Philly by 4

posted by tselson at 09:28 AM on January 03, 2007

Thanks, apoch! Indy by 3 Dallas by 3 NE by 14 Philly by 7 Go Pats yay!

posted by lil_brown_bat at 09:39 AM on January 03, 2007

Oh yeah, thanks for doing this apoch. You're a star!

posted by NoMich at 10:22 AM on January 03, 2007

indy by 4 seattle by 7 jets by 1 giants by 6

posted by goddam at 10:31 AM on January 03, 2007

mrfrisby also picked the jets.

posted by goddam at 10:54 AM on January 03, 2007

Upset City, baby. Kansas City by 8 Seattle by 4 J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets by 5 Gints by 3 Some more gratitude here, apoch.

posted by BullpenPro at 11:03 AM on January 03, 2007

Oops. Fixed and all picks double checked. Thanks. Next week grum.

posted by apoch at 11:21 AM on January 03, 2007

Chiefs by 12 Seattle by 23 NE by 2 Philadelphia by 8

posted by 86 at 11:43 AM on January 03, 2007

Kansas City by 7 Seattle by 6 New England by 14 Phladelphia by 3

posted by yzelda4045 at 12:10 PM on January 03, 2007

wow, you are the first person to pick either team from New York. I'm kinda on the fence re: Eagles/Giants. NYG have a very good chance and someone could pick up some ground in this pool with them. (Is it possible to change picks until, say, two hours before kickoff of first game?)

posted by danostuporstar at 12:22 PM on January 03, 2007

COLTS by 3 'BOYS by 1 PATS by 10 EAGLES by 7 Yeah, thanks for doing this, apoch ... nothin' like failing miserably in yet another pick 'em pool to start my new year ;)

posted by Spitztengle at 12:45 PM on January 03, 2007

Indy by 3 Pats by 11 Boys by 5 Giants by 5 NFL Playoff Picks brought to you by My Colon. Remember kids - My Colon, where all the football news, notes and picks come from.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 12:55 PM on January 03, 2007

Did willthrill72 pick? I want the opposite of his choices throughout the playoffs. :) Ah, I see that he and grum have indeed picked... but I agree with some of their choices! :o What to do, what to do...

Winner	Spread
Indy	by 10.5
Seattle	by 7.5
NE	by 10.5
Phi	by 7.5

Um... I assume there's no rule against non-integer spread picks? I chose numbers that, when using the apoch/Dr.JohnEvans formula would maximize the size of the spread around the number I was picking. I figure it's fair given that I'm giving up the possibility of that third point for nailing the pick dead on in return for marginally increasing the size of the window (i.e., 10.5 means I cover a full one through two touchdown window). So I'm limiting myself to a maximum of 8 points instead of 12 for this round, but increasing my odds of getting closer to that 8 points. If apoch is not cool with this, he can just round down my picks to 10's and 7's. Also, I agree with the not changing your picks- while as commish in the past I allowed any updates/picks right up to the moment of kickoff for that game, I think it's fair to expect people to stick with their choices and not be too wishy-washy. The only exception I think should be the Superbowl itself: if you're a contender behind the front-runner, you might want to adjust your picks to differ from your competition on the principle that it's the only way to win.

posted by hincandenza at 12:58 PM on January 03, 2007

Yep- like I said above, I understand and accept that consequence. The thinking is that 10.5 means I can cover spreads of 7 through 14 instead of 7 through 13, increasing my chances of catching the spread within a margin of error. The use of 7.5 might be less intelligent- since 7 is a common outcome, and the increase in spread size isn't as meaningful. If you're cool with it, I wouldn't mind making those 7.5's into straight 7's and then letting it be set in stone... even though I posted 15 minutes ago saying changes shouldn't be allowed... :) One thing unclear from the rules: do you not get a point if you get the spread, but not the winner? The post seems to imply that you only get the 1 or 2 points from the spread if you pick the winner, as opposed to them being separate but cumulative picks (i.e., playing you can get 8 of 12 points by nailing the spread dead-on in every game... even if you pick the wrong team in every one)

posted by hincandenza at 01:15 PM on January 03, 2007

You get one point for picking the winner. Another point if you pick within the spread range. Three points if you pick the spread exactly and the winner. I'll let you change your spread picks, just make a final post with exactly as you want them so there is no confusion.

posted by apoch at 01:17 PM on January 03, 2007

apoch, Thanks for agreeing to wrestle this alligator! Indy by 7 Cowboys by 3 NE by 10 Phily by 8 Thanks again!

posted by Termite at 01:28 PM on January 03, 2007

The assumption I'm making is that the +/- .3 means that a pick of "10" covers all spreads from 7 through 13, while a pick of "10.5" covers that additional 14th point. Similarly, a pick of "7.5" covers 5 through 10 points, while "7" covers only 5 through 9- and a TD+FG (10 points) is a not uncommon winning margin. So there is no way I can get 12 points this week, and may be gritting my teeth if any of these games end up as exactly 10 or 7 point spreads (since I'll be losing a point I'd have otherwise had). But it also means that I'm picking NE to win by 10; if NE wins by two TDs, I won't miss getting that second point. The advantage is I'm giving up any chance at the third point on each game, in return for picking a slightly wider spread that hopefully earns me a point where one might have been lost. Anyway, my final picks are unchanged from the original- sorry for the churn! :(

Winner	Spread
Indy	by 10.5
Seattle	by 7.5
NE	by 10.5
Phi	by 7.5

posted by hincandenza at 01:36 PM on January 03, 2007

I think you were misunderstanding what number gets used in the calculation. If that is the case, I'm willing to "intergerize" you spread picks. (I'm hoping intergerize is the truthiness of 2007.)

posted by apoch at 01:44 PM on January 03, 2007

Ohhhh! Yes, I was misunderstanding. I had it reversed- I thought one's pick defined the allowed actual spread, but it's the actual spread that defines the margin of allowed picks. Heh- BIG difference. Thanks for "integerizing" my picks. I'll stop troubling you now! :)

posted by hincandenza at 01:55 PM on January 03, 2007

I wouldn't mind seeing it just for comparison. The email is in the profile.

posted by apoch at 02:50 PM on January 03, 2007

Big Manning and the Horsies by 14 The Boys by 6 J-E-T-S jetsjetsjets by 3 Lil' Manning and the really tall guys by 4

posted by HATER 187 at 03:28 PM on January 03, 2007

Larry Johnson is watching game film right now and salivating. Kansas City by 17. Dallas lost to the Lions. What else can I say? Seattle by 7. New England by 10. The Giants are a better team than there record indicates (cliche anyone?) but my confidence in Manning is little to none. Philly in 14.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:25 PM on January 03, 2007

Kansas City - 4 Seattle - 10 New York Jets - 3 Philidelphia - 7

posted by skydivemom at 07:55 PM on January 03, 2007

Philadelphia -- 6 New England -- 10 Indianapolis -- 8 Seattle -- 3

posted by holden at 11:28 PM on January 03, 2007

Kansas City at Indianapolis - Indy by 3 Dallas at Seattle - Seattle by 6 New York Jets at New England - New England by 10 New York Giants at Philadelphia - New York by 2

posted by trox at 12:47 PM on January 04, 2007

Did willthrill72 pick? I want the opposite of his choices throughout the playoffs. :) Ah, I see that he and grum have indeed picked... but I agree with some of their choices! :o What to do, what to do... Hal, that cuts deep,man. But not a bad strategy.

posted by willthrill72 at 02:02 PM on January 04, 2007

Indy by 21 Seattle by 8 Jets by 5 Philadelphia by 13

posted by chicobangs at 04:29 PM on January 04, 2007

Kansas City at Indianapolis - KC by 9; Larry Johnson goes butt-ass-wild on what the Colts still insist on calling a defense. Dallas at Seattle - Dallas by 12; Tony Romo goes butt-ass-wild on the depleted Seahawks secondary, then goes back to his hotel room and goes butt-ass-wild on whatever bubbleheaded bleachblond pop star he's dating now. New York Jets at New England - New York by 4; Chad Pennington taunts Tom Brady after the game..."Not only did we win the game, but I've got the Comeback Player of the Year Award, and a girlfriend!" New York Giants at Philadelphia - Philly by 3; Despite Tiki Barber's heroic efforts, the Resurrection (of Jeff Garcia) will be televised.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 07:44 AM on January 05, 2007

Well, you did have to come up strong in the last few weeks to avoid the Costanza in the NFL confidence pool.

posted by bperk at 08:40 AM on January 05, 2007

I do believe this is where I stepped in (and lurked a bit last year) and found this to be a fun bunch, thus (good or bad) I joined up so I could play this year. That said, here are my first round picks. Indianapolis - by 6 Seattle - by 15 New York Jets - by 3 Philadelphia - by 12

posted by Folkways at 12:10 PM on January 05, 2007

Indy by 7 Seattle by 3 N.E. by 9 Philly by 7

posted by forrestv at 01:05 PM on January 05, 2007

Larry Johnson goes butt-ass-wild on what the Colts still insist on calling a defense. Tony Romo goes butt-ass-wild on the depleted Seahawks secondary Where did the phrase butt-ass-wild come from? I've heard it many times but seeing it printed out makes me wonder at it's origins. Wikipedia's got nothin and I'm afraid to google it at work.

posted by tron7 at 06:24 PM on January 05, 2007

Indianapolis by 10 Dallas by 4 New England by 8 Philly by 6

posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 10:14 PM on January 05, 2007

Indy by 9 Dallas by 4 NE by 11 Philly by 13

posted by jojomfd1 at 01:31 PM on January 06, 2007

I'm not sure what the SpoFi record for participation but we have 42 unique entries. The SpoFi Collective picks makes 43. Your collective picks are: Indy (26-16) by 8 Seattle (28-14) by 6 Patriots (32-10) by 9 Eagles (34-8) by 6. The biggest blowout predicted was 86's Seahawks by 23. Several people picked a couple different teams by 1. Next week: A bonus question and updated standings.

posted by apoch at 03:15 PM on January 06, 2007

Alas! If my picks had stayed at 10.5 for Indy, I'd have gotten the m-o-e point (since the 15 point spread - 0.3*15 = 10.5 exactly). Only drjohnevans, gspm, and Mr. Bismarck have picked Indy within the margin of 10.5-19.5, and are leading early with 2; lots of other people have 1, and quite a few with none so far. Man, I love pick'ems action! Go Seahawks!

posted by hincandenza at 08:04 PM on January 06, 2007

Man. I didn't see the game -- I followed it on Yahoo's tracker while I was working -- but... man. Although I am not a Dallas fan by any means, I gotta say I feel sorry for Romo. The kid seemed to have a pretty good game for his first playoff. No INTs, decent numbers. I hope he takes some comfort in the fact that if Bledsoe had kept his job they'd have been watching this game from home.

posted by BullpenPro at 10:29 PM on January 06, 2007

grum hacked into my computer, stole my spreadsheet, then fixed the way I calculate the spread for the collective. Everyone say, "Thanks grum!" because it is way better than what I was doing. The new spreads are Indy by3, Seattle by 4, Patriots by 7, and Eagles by 5. (Okay, so he requested the spreadsheet and I sent it to him, which isn't hacking or stealing, but he did really fix the calculation for the collective.)

posted by apoch at 05:34 AM on January 07, 2007

The spread points are awarded regardless if you picked the winning team correctly. Just want to clarify, apoch: according to the bullet points you copied and pasted above, spread points are awarded if you don't pick the winner only if you nail the spread. If you're within the margin of error but picked the loser, you don't get any points. Unless you changed that rule somewhere between now and then... but it's been my experience that that hands out too many points.

posted by DrJohnEvans at 11:04 AM on January 07, 2007

I thought you got a point for being within the margin of error, regardless if you got the winner correctly or not. Rereading the rules, I see that isn't the case. I guess I need to adjust some scores.

posted by apoch at 11:45 AM on January 07, 2007

I'm not changing the original rules, I just misunderstood them. I'm keeping the rules as originally posted.

posted by apoch at 01:48 PM on January 07, 2007

picked the winner, and a spread within the Marginof Error Wasn't aware of this. Seems like it would encourage picking who you think will win, but always picking by 1 (or maybe 3) points.

posted by yerfatma at 05:09 PM on January 07, 2007

I guess you copy/pasted those rules from DJE. However, I'd like to toss out that historically, past NFL playoff pick'ems were run with each pick as independent: you could pick the spread independent of the winner, independent of the over/under, independent of MVP, etc (so your separate picks can be hedging each other). Granted, in past NFL pick'ems we didn't do the margin-of-error, and often had different value for the picks (i.e., because the spread was a dead-on pick, it was worth 2 points, etc). But as DJE says: this is your pick'em, feel free to say now what you want the rules to be and how you meant it. Don't let us old fogeys badger you around! :) So while the bullet points do imply that the spread is tied to picking the winner, they don't say that you have to pick the winner to get the spread (just that if you did both, you'd get 2 or 3 points). I know that I'd be happy with them as different picks for this and future weekends. It makes it more interesting, I think: you can actually find yourself rooting for a team to lose that you had picked, when you realize that you'll make more points if they don't score and keep the spread at, say, 3. So my vote, for what it's worth, is that we should go with the independent picks method: it what I thought it would be until mid-thread, and it's how SpoFi has played in the past- and it also sounds like it's how apoch was already keeping score so far. In any event- you're doing a great job as Commish this year, apoch! Lord knows I've been where you are, and it makes for very busy but very fun weekends! :)

posted by hincandenza at 07:35 PM on January 07, 2007

Nevermind on my last post- apoch clarified the rules nicely in his latest LR post. Much obliged!

posted by hincandenza at 09:38 PM on January 07, 2007

I also pick my Browns to totally rock the Dolphins on Madden 07 on Saturday, by 15.

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	FINAL
Dolphins	0	6	0	14	0	20
Browns	3	10	0	21	0	34

Do I get a bonus point for that?

posted by Mr Bismarck at 08:02 AM on January 08, 2007