November 19, 2006

Eight year contracts to players who will be 31 when the next season starts is just ridiculous. Unless there is some outrageous revenue stream that is still waiting to be tapped, and every single payroll in MLB doubles by the time the 2014 season rolls around, this is going to be a crippling contract to whoever is paying it at that time. That's assuming, of course, he's still playing baseball in 8 years. Let's do some comparisons: Players most similar to Alfonso Soriano by age 30: (where the number in brackets is the similarity score, and 1000 is exactly the same) 1. Howard Johnson (892) - retired at age 34, below average hitter 3 of remaining 4 years 2. Tony Batista (883) - went over to Japan, came back, got cut by Twins 3. Matt Williams (880) - had 6 more productive years (out of 7), definitely someone you'd hope Alfonso emulates 4. Bob Horner (873) - didn't play again...not a good comp 5. Jeff Kent (873) - still playing, and may be the most optimistic comp 6. Danny Tartabull (873) - done by 34, had 2 good seasons out of 4 7. Geoff Jenkins (870) - still playing, just barely older than Soriano, somewhat productive but not valuable as an OF 8. Ken Boyer (870) - had 3 more good seasons before alternating good/bad until 38 9. Joe Gordon (869) - came back after the war, had a couple good seasons but then petered out 10. Raul Mondesi (864) - extremely average hitting corner outfielder who just packed it in The only times in the past 15 years that I'd consider giving an 8 year contract to ANYONE in professional baseball would be Alex Rodriguez in 2000 and Albert Pujols in 2005.

posted by grum@work at 10:47 PM on November 19, 2006

Grum, As usual you have come up with some very interesting numbers. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Soriano for the next 5 years, and then he's on the downhill slide. As for the size of the contract, it's outrageous. I don't think even a 4- or 5-year deal for $14 or $15 megabucks per is reasonable for Soriano. What will be interesting is how the Soriano deal skews the market for J. D. Drew and others of that level.

posted by Howard_T at 12:10 AM on November 20, 2006

I always found Soriano to be one of those fantasy monsters in the abstract, but not exactly the key ingredient on a winning team. I mean, do you hit him in the 3 or 4 hole? Is he a middle order guy with speed? Or is he a top order guy with power? Either way, he could hit 50 at Wrigley. That's sexy, but the guy has a career OPS of .836 (with a very low .325 OBP) and isn't much of a fielder. Despite the 40/40 stuff, there are oodles of better hitters making much, much less. That contract is ridiculous and will be unmoveable to all but three or four teams, three or four years from now, but that isn't off what others were offering. I think the Cubs made a desparate move here.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 08:10 AM on November 20, 2006

You guys are talking like this is the acquisition of another Jacques Jones, give me a break. I don't think anyone would be ridiculous enough to mention Soriano in the same breath as Jacques Jones, but unless he's capable of being the team's trainer, pitching every third, fourth, or fifth day, and providing some middle relief, all while hitting his 50 homers, driving in 100, and stealing 40-something bases, it doesn't look like enough. If Wood and Prior were healthy for the entire season, they'd be a definite threat.

posted by dyams at 08:46 AM on November 20, 2006

I take any comment from a Cardinals fan concerning the Cubs with a grain of salt. The signing of Soriano is a significant acquisition and definitely makes the Cubs a serious threat in the NL Central any doubt about that hasn't been well thought out. posted by skydivedad at 8:13 AM CST on November 20 Maybe I should rephrase or expand upon my comment. This move perhaps, coupled with a full season of Derrek Lee and some competent managing, makes the Cubs a contender in the NL Central. But then again, I think every other team in that division (Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Brewers) with the exception of the Pirates has a chance to contend in that division. Whether that makes them a contender in the bigger sense, I would say not -- although the Cardinals were by no means a contender at any point after June last year and somehow managed to win the World Series. This move addresses the Cubs second-to-last runs scored in the NL last year. The Cubs pitching staff, however, had the second worst runs allowed in the NL last year, and I haven't seen any offseason moves by the Cubs that address that problem and who knows how much money they have left now to pursue a top free agent pitcher, especially with talks of the sale of Tribune Co. (although perhaps Hendry's budget has already been set). All of that aside, viewing the contract in a vacuum, the big problem with this contract is its length and no-trade clause. One (perceived) significant aspect of Soriano's skill set, speed, is likely in decline and will probably be a non-factor about halfway into this contract. At that point, you are paying Manny Ramirez money for a guy who does not hit like Manny Ramirez. No one is saying that Soriano is another Jacques Jones, I think what I'm saying (and grum is saying) is that this is a very risky contract for a soon-to-be 31 year-old coming off of his career year.

posted by holden at 08:52 AM on November 20, 2006

I fail to see how getting Soriano (the most dynamic FA available) is a bad deal. The guy is in his prime and frankly all this talk about him being on the down-side of his career is a bunch of BS. It's about time the Cubs went on a spending spree and I don't think they're done. Signing Soriano this early in the offseason sends a message to the other FA's out there. According to Piniella the spending spree is just getting started. "the Cubs would still like to add one more hitter (Gary Mathews Jr. is the main rumor) and as many as three starters". The days of counting on Woods and Prior are over (Thank God). Look for Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquise as possibilities to join Wade Miller and Carlos Zambrano. Neal Cotts (LHP) can both start and relieve and would join Scott Eyre and Bob Howry, Micheal Wirtz and possibly Kerry Woods in middle relief, so really, middle relief shouldn't be a problem. Both Henry and Piniella have said DeRosa was signed to play 2nd, no chance Soriano isn't playing in the Outfield either in Left or Center but if they sign Mathews Jr. Soriano plays in Left. D. Lee has to be excited about getting some protection in the line-up. No matter what happens it's just exciting to see the Tribune Co. open the purse strings.

posted by skydivedad at 09:35 AM on November 20, 2006

How's that hanging on to Soriano at the trade deadline working out for you, Jim Bowden? Yeah, this is pretty disappointing for the Nationals. It was nice to have a superstar (if not a good team) to get fans to the ballpark. However, at least this way, Bowden wasn't the one who got rid of Soriano for some players that may have been good long-term, but that fans didn't know.

posted by bperk at 09:54 AM on November 20, 2006

Soriano made a league-best 22 outfield assists. He became the first player in major-league history to have at least 20 outfield assists, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season. Guys who lead the league in outfield assists tend to either be amazing or amazingly shitty fielders. Soriano's assists total has more to do with the fact the position was new to him than anything else. As for the first player to hit 3 arbitrary numbers, what of it? Does that make him better than guys who posted higher OPS with fewer home runs because they can take a pitch once in a while? Does it make Soriano a better teammate than guys who are willing to change positions without it becoming a national referendum? He's a crap fielder at multiple positions who puts up gaudy but misleading staistics and he's on the downslide of a career, age-wise. Maybe holden's bias isn't the only one to watch out for.

posted by yerfatma at 09:57 AM on November 20, 2006

The president of the cubs used to say we want to play big games in september this year the new president said we want to win the world series granted we are the laughingstock of MLB but least they are finally doing something about it the teams problems are not just on the field they are all over and it will remain to be seen how they handle these signings I can actually give them the benefit of the doubt Now if we could just add some starting pitching? GO CUBBIES

posted by luther70 at 10:06 AM on November 20, 2006

Maybe holden's bias isn't the only one to watch out for. Bias in this thread? No way...

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 10:38 AM on November 20, 2006

the cubs weren't exactly misers Sure, but I can appreciate sdd's point: the Cubs have been raking it in for years and not spending it. Now they're starting to spend it. Step two will be spending it properly. All in good time.

posted by yerfatma at 11:30 AM on November 20, 2006

Eeech, this makes me cringe. Paid way too much for the guy and for too long of a contract.

posted by jerseygirl at 11:43 AM on November 20, 2006

Way to much money for a player his age and the length of the contract. I doubt Soriano will be playing in 2012, never mind 2015. Just my opinion on it. It will open the flood gates for future signings of other player in a yet still early offseason. But if it works out for the Cubs,than good luck to them.

posted by Ghastly1 at 03:03 PM on November 20, 2006

I think that the real value in Soriano is to put him back at second base. He would probably be the most productive offensive second basemen in the majors for the next three or four years and then for the final four years of the contract you could stick him in LF, RF, 2B or possibly 1B which apparantly is now a defensive position that can be picked up on the plane trip to spring training. I do appreciate that he is on the backside of his career but the versatility he brings defensively and offensively (I could see him batting 1-5 depending on your lineup) are a huge benefit. But yes the money is stupid, but isn't the money always stupid?

posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 03:41 PM on November 20, 2006

He became the first player in major-league history to have at least 20 outfield assists, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season. He became the first player in major league history to have at least 10 outfield errors, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season. He became the first player in major league history to have at least 150 strikeouts, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season. He became the first player in major league history to have at least 17 caught stealings, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season. He became the first player in major league history to have less than 60 unintentional walks, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season. He became the first player in major league history to have an OPS under .950, 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season.

posted by grum@work at 04:32 PM on November 20, 2006

I enjoyed watching him in Texas, and I think Cub fans will, too. He is not totally hapless in the field, he is just as likely to make an outstanding play as to blow an easy one, and at the plate, he is just as likely go yard on a bad pitch as to go down swinging. I also feel that he posesses the ability to become more disciplined in the field and at the plate. If the Cubs add Gary Matthews Jr. along with DeRosa and Soriano, they will be a lot of fun to watch. Stupid Tom Hicks.

posted by mjkredliner at 05:05 PM on November 20, 2006

The long term contract doesn't mean a damn thing. I am sure he Cubs have a buy out figure included somewhere in that contract that will allow them to get out at any time he becomes non-productive for a specified figure at something much less than the yearly figure appears to be. All in all I think it is a good move for the Cubs.

posted by The Woj at 05:31 PM on November 20, 2006

and grums misleading Stats rebuttal aside, If grum's was misleading then your original stats were every bit the same. You only focused on Soriano's good stats. Grum@work pointed out Soriano's bad stats. When it comes down to it, both are the facts. Just don't make Soriano into something he's not.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:30 PM on November 20, 2006

If your saying Soriano sucks as a Baseball Player, I never said he sucks. You wanted to tie in a 3rd stat to his 40/40 numbers, so I thought I'd just play along and tie in some other stats to the 40/40 numbers. He's a great baseball player, but his contract is going to look terrible in (my guess) 4 years. Any guesses on what his totals will be next year if he is playing CF for the Cubs? I'm guessing .869 OPS, 28HR, 25SB, and enough errors/misplays to be moved back to left field before the season is done. Sure, I could be way off, but this season smelled a lot like Beltre 2004. I am sure he Cubs have a buy out figure included somewhere in that contract that will allow them to get out at any time he becomes non-productive for a specified figure at something much less than the yearly figure appears to be. If they did, it would be reported all over the place by now. I suspect there isn't a buyout until the last season.

posted by grum@work at 11:06 PM on November 20, 2006

This is just stupid. Aside from the stolen bases, Matt Murton's already putting up similar numbers posted by rocketman at 4:04 PM CST on November 20 Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.0.1) - Cite This Source as?i?nine? // Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[as-uh-nahyn] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation –adjective 1. foolish, unintelligent, or silly; stupid: It is surprising that supposedly intelligent people can make such asinine statements. According to rocketman the "numbers" produced by Soriano and Murton are similar with the exception of stolen bases. This statement is so far from the truth that it is a perfect fit for the definition of asinine. That it's patently false should be self evident. Player TEAM POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG 1. A Soriano WSH OF 159 647 119 179 41 2 46 95 362 67 160 41 17 .351 .560 .277 2. M Murton CHC OF 144 455 70 135 22 3 13 62 202 45 62 5 2 .365 .444 .297 TEAM POS SF SH HBP IBB GDP TPA NP XBH SB% GO AO GO/AO OPS 1. A Soriano WSH OF 3 2 9 16 3 728 2839 89 70.7 103 205 0.52 .911 2. M Murton CHC OF 2 1 5 1 16 508 1888 38 71.4 163 91 1.97 .809 Let me highlight a few for you. Home Runs 46-13 Not similar, RBI 95-62, not similar, SLG .560-.444, not similar, 2B 41-22 (oh I forgot 40+ doubles isn't a significant stat in sportsfilter world). Those are but a few "numbers" as you can see, that aren't similar at all. "The questions are: is that plus worth what the Cubs will pay? Will he even be a plus in a few years?" 98 Years of futility says yes to the 1st question. A few years matters not a bit if he blows up next year is all that matters to Jim Henry and myself. (I can't speak for all Cub Fans)

posted by skydivedad at 08:31 AM on November 21, 2006

Ok, His SLG% (.560) was ninth in the league last year. Some additional non-stat based information that could possibly change a few of the negitive Soriano opinions around here, while I'm not holding my breath thinking that's possible, I do believe most of you will at least reconsider your positions. According to Nationals manager Frank Robinson, Soriano is a positive influence in the clubhouse. ''That's one of the refreshing things about having him here,'' Robinson told the Washington Post (this is in contrast to earlier comments about his qualities as a team-mate). I trust Frank Robinson's opinion, you of course don't have to. Soriano has won three straight Silver Slugger awards and four overall for being the best offensive player at his position, as judged by managers and coaches (yea but what do they know). He has played in five All-Star Games and was the MVP of the 2004 game. He became the first rookie to hit a walk-off home run in postseason history when he belted a two-run homer in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2001 ALCS against Seattle. He also hit a game-winning RBI single in the 12th inning of Game 5 of the World Series against Arizona that year. Despite his defensive shortcomings, Soriano was voted as the National League's starting left fielder in the All-Star Game. (Fans, what do they know). He finished 6th overall in MVP voting with 106 points. Like I said, I can't wait to see him in Cubbie Blue!

posted by skydivedad at 09:28 AM on November 21, 2006

I never said acquiring Soriano is going to put the Cubs into the World Series, please don't say I did, he is however a big piece of the puzzle. I also quoted Piniella as saying more pieces are going to be added, which was one of the signals Soriano's early signing sent. GM Henry said as much today " ''It's way too early yet,'' Hendry said. ''We're not ready to think this is the ballclub we'll line up with next year. A lot of things can happen. We have a lot of work still to do." Hendry said improving the starting rotation through trades or free-agent signings is the next target, as well as adding left-handed batting help to the bench. Juan Pierre signed with the Dodgers today and it's clear Soriano will be the leadoff hitter and probably play Center field. Not much if you payed attention to any discussions on SpoFi around the All Star game. All Star voting is a big popularity contest, not neccesarily finding the best players. It's ironic that the Fans and The Silver Slugger voters agree on something, I guess those All-Star MVP voters are just as clueless.

posted by skydivedad at 10:14 AM on November 21, 2006

You guys sure have a hard time understanding that just because the Fans Voted as such doesn't make it wrong automatically. You act as if their wrong 100% of the time, which is just as absurd as saying they're correct 100% of the time. I take it you have always and will continue to believe they never get it right.

posted by skydivedad at 10:30 AM on November 21, 2006

I suppose the irony escapes you...... Oh yea, the fans also voted for Manny, Beltran, Jetter, Guerrero and Ortiz all of whom Won Silver Slugger Awards so according to your logic these were completely inappropriate choices. On 2nd look, I guess your snark doesn't really work.

posted by skydivedad at 10:54 AM on November 21, 2006

I think the fans get the All Star voting correct 100% of the time. They have never failed to vote for the players they want to see the most. If the Cubs could have had Juan Pierre at the same rate he just signed (5 yr/$45) instead of Alfonso Soriano (8/$136), and they plan on just putting Soriano in Pierre's place in center field and at the top of the order, then in my opinion the Cubs blew it. As a Cubs fan, I would so much rather have seen them sign Pierre and blow the big cash on pitching... ...unless Soriano is NOT replacing Pierre. If Soriano is, in fact, staying in left field and the Cubs intend to sign, say, Gary Matthews Jr., AND the Cubs plan on flipping Matt Murton and/or Felix Pie for some top of the order pitching, then I love this signing from a Cubs perspective. I don't think the numbers for Soriano are that outrageous in this market (I certainly wouldn't compare him to Adrian Beltre -- his track record is much, much stronger and more consistent than Beltre's was). And the way things are going, it may well be that by the time Soriano declines in the direction of being a more average player, $17 mil may be an about-average salary. I'm not a big fan of Soriano myself, to be honest, but I can't deny what he's capable of doing at the plate. To really judge this signing, though, I think it has to be taken in the context of the Cubs' plan, which we haven't seen in total yet. If the Soriano signing gives the Cubs the flexibility to trade for pitching, with the tools they have, they can definitely bolster that rotation. Soriano is like signing Sosa, which was really only worthwhile the one year both Wood and Prior pitched 200 innings. Not a coincidence.

posted by BullpenPro at 11:11 AM on November 21, 2006

Fox SportsNet just announced the Cubs are signing Julio Lugo. Henry has a 3PM News Conference schelduled according to 670 AM Score Radio. Lugo was a favorite of Piniella with the Devil Rays and can play Center, 2nd and Short giving the Cubs flexibilty to make some additional moves. I sure hope it's for real.

posted by skydivedad at 11:39 AM on November 21, 2006

1. home-team flooding - voting for your home team, and because you have a higher attendance, he becomes a starter despite a much better choice (Mark Loretta in 2006 is an example) With the availability of online voting, I wonder how much of a role attendance now plays into the equation. Certainly, the size of the team's fan base (and relatedly, the number of countries represented on the roster) makes a big difference. I'm not disputing your attendance comment at all -- I honestly don't know what influence attendance now has on the voting. Do people still sit and poke out those chads? (I do, but I don't see it at the ballpark nearly as much.) I agree, it's for the fans to enjoy, but then call it the "MLB Fan Favourite Game" instead of the "MLB All-Star Game". Can you be a "star" without anyone knowing about it? Are you a star by virtue of your excellence alone? "Star" to me incorporates talent with notoriety. The All-Star Game accounts for the sum of both parts, and I would argue is aptly named.

posted by BullpenPro at 12:41 PM on November 21, 2006

1 - That's a lot of money for a lead-off hitter and mediocre left fielder - though to be fair, I don't really care what any of these guys make. I don't think anybody cares about how much he makes except for Cubs fans, and there it is only to the degree that it handcuffs the club now and in the future. $17 mil for Soriano is fine, but I don't believe it's publicly known what the Cubs are budgeting for this or any future year. If that $17 mil could have been spent on Juan Pierre and a solid starting pitcher, and spending it on Soriano means they won't get that starting pitcher, then it is a big deal. But if they plan on getting that same pitcher anyway, then the money is not an issue. 2 - I just don't think Soriano is that great a player. He hasn't seemed to improve on any of the shortcomings he had when he came into the league. He still strikes out too much without the appropriate number of walks to compensate. He just doesn't get on base enough for a lead-off guy. First, I totally agree with you that Soriano has major flaws in his game. And the fact that he is so slow in correcting those flaws leads me to believe that he is uncoachable. His behavior last spring has added quite a bit to that perception. However, the trick in valuing Soriano is in knowing what he is and how he will be used. He has vastly different value as a second baseman than as a left fielder, and he has vastly different value from slot to slot in the lineup. He is a terrible leadoff hitter, no doubt. But if the Cubs plan to use him to protect Aramis Ramirez or Derrek Lee, his value is higher. If he hits third, ahead of those guys, the likelihood that Lou is going to let him run free is pretty small, so the SB element decreases in value (though his speed on the bases is likely to enhance the numbers of guys hitting below him -- fewer double plays, more extra bases on hits, etc.). If he hits fifth and is protected by Jacque Jones, he will hit, he's going to steal more, he's going to drive in more runs with Ramirez and Lee ahead of him, and his value will be quite large. Carlos Delgado averages about 140 strikeouts a season. And Soriano's walk total last year was over double those of his previous two years. And he's now hitting in the Friendly Confines. His value to the Cubs in unknown. Which is why I'm waiting until the Cubs are done dealing to make a fair assessment of this signing.

posted by BullpenPro at 01:41 PM on November 21, 2006

Cubs ownership finally recovered the combination to their vault! The U.S. Treasury probably thought that money was out of circulation.

posted by dyams at 06:27 PM on November 21, 2006