April 19, 2006

How to win your playoff hockey pool: Here comes the science.

posted by aupa_athletic to hockey at 11:59 AM - 26 comments

From the article: "After a two-year drought, NHL fans finally get the chance to see 16 teams spill their blood and pour their souls onto the ice in an epic battle to decide who will . . . end up winning their office playoff hockey pool." Uhhh, that would be a one-year drought. Unless they don't recognize the Tampa Bay Lightning as a legitimate organization.

posted by NoMich at 12:19 PM on April 19, 2006

This year, it's a toss up. Anyone has a chance to win it (with the exception of the Habs). I'll pick one, cross my fingers and pray.

posted by kingosiris at 12:19 PM on April 19, 2006

NoMich The Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup on June 7, 2004

posted by aupa_athletic at 12:31 PM on April 19, 2006

It's easy to win the pool this year, just pick the RedWings all the way down the line.

posted by commander cody at 12:59 PM on April 19, 2006

I am going to have to agree with commander cody. I dont see the wings losing. The devils have been on a tear lately, and the devs and wings would make for a great final. I am praying (and have been) that my beloved rangers will find a way to dispose of the devs but that is probably more fantasy than reality. I cannot wait for the playoffs to start!!

posted by NYRBeeker16 at 01:07 PM on April 19, 2006

But aupa_athletic, since we are again playing for the Cup in 2006, that makes 2005 the only year of the Cup drought. A two-year drought would mean that 2005 and 2006 would be sans NHL playoffs. Sure, it's been two years since they competed for the Cup, but the drought itself has lasted only a single year. Hopefully I have unmuddied the waters a bit with my terrible writing. And sorry for the derail, but this detail is bothering me. Maybe they make meds for people like me?

posted by NoMich at 01:27 PM on April 19, 2006

Don't see the Red Wings losing? I hate to burst your bubble but the Red Wings aren't nearly as good as their record indicates. How many games did these guys get to play against the Blue Jackets, Blackhawks and Blues? Hands down they played in the softest division in the league. Many Legace is also a bit of a question mark - totally unproven right now. He could do well, but let's not get crazy and declare Detroit the winner - there are four hard, punishing series to go. And Detroit will find it difficult to get by a San Jose or Calgary. Those teams have stellar goaltending and are hot heading in. I like Detroit to go deep - but you guys have such rosy red coloured glasses that you are no longer being even remotely objective in your examination. This is no walk in the park. Not by a long shot. The Wings are not tough down low and their D can be battered by a good forechecking team. Not to mention just how unkind the post-season has been to President's Trophy winners in the past. Hey - they're obviously a good team - but the REAL season starts on Friday. That 114 points means fuck all, starting.... Now.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 02:41 PM on April 19, 2006

Think of it as rain, NoMich. If it hasn't rained since June 7, 2004...it's been a two year drought. However, since it is not rain and we have only missed one year of playoffs, I'll declare it a one year drought with two years worth of time having expired in between. Given six months for time served...I think, I'll stick with thinking of it as rain. Maybe they make meds for people like me? You celebrated the new mellinium in 2001, didn't you. Don't worry, it's not you, it's everyone else.

posted by tselson at 02:43 PM on April 19, 2006

This is all fine and well, but without actual picks and actual results, it's just a lot of speculating.

posted by mkn at 02:57 PM on April 19, 2006

You celebrated the new mellinium in 2001, didn't you. As a matter of fact I was in Amsterdam December 31, 2000 for the real millennium celebration. Oh man, I need help...

posted by NoMich at 02:58 PM on April 19, 2006

Hasek will return. Ottowa will win the cup.

posted by RadioZombie at 03:01 PM on April 19, 2006


posted by RadioZombie at 03:02 PM on April 19, 2006

Devils and Wings in the final? Boooooooring! Also, what Weedy said. On preview: if you wanna talk in da local dialect, you wan' Oddawa wid a "d", eh? Now, time to read the actual link.

posted by DrJohnEvans at 03:04 PM on April 19, 2006

Yeah, it's okay. Somebody figured out a formula to use to rank players. But somebody else pooh-poohs statistics and uses "hockey knowledge" instead. Nothing we haven't really heard before.

posted by DrJohnEvans at 03:07 PM on April 19, 2006

As a matter of fact I was in Amsterdam December 31, 2000 for the real millennium Aha! Now we are getting somewhere...let's talk about Amsterdam and what may or may not have happened there. As far as the hockey pool, I'll just "wing" it.

posted by tselson at 03:51 PM on April 19, 2006

Using an ancient Druid formula, the alignment of the stars, my Ouija board, and a lucky pair of dice, the inescapable conclusion was......... the Mighty Ducks.

posted by irunfromclones at 03:57 PM on April 19, 2006

The article was right that playoff pools are a lot more fun than regular season pools because you have to pick not only scorers but scorers on teams that will go deep. My draft is tonight - straight scoring, no goalies or other computer-age stuff - and I think everyone in it has always competed to get the guys from the teams that will do well - so we already do what the statistician suggests. I think that's pretty common actually. My personal approach is not to worry too much about who will get to the final but make sure I have some balance of players from the 4 teams in the Conference finals. Which will be Ottawa and NJ in the East and SJ and Calgary in the West (though Detroit - SJ is pretty much a tossup).

posted by mikelbyl at 04:18 PM on April 19, 2006

If we let stats run hockey the way it does baseball then the nerds win. Not to mention just how unkind the post-season has been to President's Trophy winners in the past. Too lazy to look it up who was the last Presidents trophy winner to also win the cup? I think oneof those mid 1990's wings teams might have, but I know for sure the 1994 Rangers did it so that is my final answer.

posted by HATER 187 at 04:21 PM on April 19, 2006

The rule in the annual playoff pool is that you cannot choose more than one player from one team. Everyone picks 12 players, and the top 10 count. That means you are forced to pick 4 guys from teams you just KNOW are going to be out in the first round. I've been in the money 3 of the past 4 pools because I've hit jackpot on a "longshot", like Iginla last playoffs. Too lazy to look it up who was the last Presidents trophy winner to also win the cup? Detroit was tops in the league and playoffs in 2001-2002 season. Colorado and Dallas also did it between NYR and Detroit's run.

posted by grum@work at 04:28 PM on April 19, 2006

So... has anyone else given more than twenty minutes of thought towards trying to create the program described in Ms. Summers' thesis? Anyone? Please?

posted by Succa at 05:18 PM on April 19, 2006

In the past twenty years there have only been six teams to win the President's Trophy and The Stanley Cup in the same season: 1987 Edmonton Oilers 1989 Calgary Flames 1994 NY Rangers 1999 Dallas Stars 2001 Colorado Avalanche 2002 Detroit Red Wings That's only a 30% success rate. So, I hate to admit it, but Weedy's correct in his assessment.
That being said, I still say Bring It!

posted by wingnut4life at 05:25 PM on April 19, 2006

where's a free hockey pool.i'm gonna let my cat, pick the players.. don't laugh, tsn uses a monkey..lol!!!

posted by ktown at 06:48 PM on April 19, 2006

30% success is pretty good, actually, considering the number of teams that make the playoffs...

posted by fabulon7 at 07:56 PM on April 19, 2006

My money is on the Pens!!!LMAO

posted by joromu at 08:02 PM on April 19, 2006

Senators vs Wings for The Cup, Wings in 6. If it's Devils or 'Canes vs Wings then Wings in 4.

posted by commander cody at 09:30 PM on April 19, 2006

I'm willing to bet that the same percentage of President's trophy winners - 30% - were also eliminated in the first round. I know Ottawa and Detroit both were (in 99 and 92 respectively if I recall correctly). I think it's indicative of the season winner dealy meaning shit. I'd pick me some Sens, Red Wings, and Devils - then some Sharks, Stars and Flames. Then I'd go with Canes, Avalanche and Canadiens. My pool goes tonight - but a stupid reception is preventing my attendance. Pick some Sens first though - you know that those Tampa games are going to feature some high scores.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 08:15 AM on April 20, 2006

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