04/26/24
January 04, 2016
NFL Pick 'Em Contest Winner: Grum@work: After 17 weeks, SportsFilter's NFL Pick 'Em contest has been won by a margin of just one point. Grum@work is victorious over Ic23b in second place and 22 other players. Grum wins The Duke, an official NFL game ball. Congratulations! A playoff pick 'em will begin later this week.
Congratulations, Grum! That was a great late-season surge. Winning in a week when you broke your lock is an amazing feat.
These results will be official on Wednesday, so if you find any errors please let me know immediately. I checked Grum and Ic23b's scores for the week by hand and they were correct.
For next season, I'd like your input on some potential rule changes:
1. Drop the 1 point for getting the spread right but the winner wrong.
This may be more popular than I realize, but it always seemed odd to me. The only thing I like about it is that Jagsnumberone can always pick the Jags while still trying to get a point when they're all-but-certain to be walloped.
2. Award 5 points for picking the winner, 3 points for the spread within the margin of error and another 2 points for nailing the spread. (Currently it's 1 for a winner, 1 for spread and 1 for exact.)
The rationale is to give more weight to picking each game's winner. That would be half of the potential points you can win, instead of one-third.
My plan for next season is to make it possible to enter picks and track winners with a mobile app in addition to the browser.
If you have any other rules you'd like considered, let me know.
posted by rcade at 03:35 PM on January 04, 2016
1. Definitely drop that rule. I benefited from it this week, but it seems so wrong.
2. Guessing the winner is more logical than guessing the spread, as that exact number is pretty much random. I'm fine with the points being weighted towards the win instead of the number.
One rule I'd like to propose is that locks be only worth 2x, but that you can select as many locks as you want each week. It adds a bit of strategy and can create amazing drama near the end of the year; do you play it safe, or do you gamble and make 5 or 6 games "locks"? If you fail a lock, however, it should be a 3x penalty. That will cut down on the times someone makes all their picks "locks" in order to gain ground.
Another change would be to submit your picks privately (in some way), but just have something on the web page that says "Picks submitted". That avoids anyone trying to game the system. Theoretically, I could have saved my picks for the very last moment, and chosen the teams/numbers that best gave me a chance of matching the people chasing me (and therefore eliminating any hope of passing me).
After the deadline of the day (first game of the week starts), then the picks are all revealed at once.
posted by grum@work at 04:40 PM on January 04, 2016
Congratulations to grum on his victory. Congratulations and many thanks to rcade for running the show. I enjoyed the competition.
I would also like to see the elimination of the point for getting the spread but not the winner. There should be more emphasis on picking winners, and more points for hitting the spread exactly than for being within the margin of error. Otherwise, I have no complaints at all, other than the nagging feeling that there was some sort of vast conspiracy keeping me from making correct picks.
posted by Howard_T at 05:04 PM on January 04, 2016
Congrats Grum. Job well done.
This may be more popular than I realize, but it always seemed odd to me. The only thing I like about it is that Jagsnumberone can always pick the Jags while still trying to get a point when they're all-but-certain to be walloped
Wished we had used it this year, would have meant a lot more points for me (It seemed at least once a week I would have the spread exactly correct but the wrong team/lol)
Also, the Jags will win a lot more games next year, so I'll miss less games (fingers crossed on this one/lol)
posted by jagsnumberone at 06:18 PM on January 04, 2016
Grum will get that game ball in due course, but first, rcade needs to send it to the SpoFi New England Gameday Equipment Center so Howard, yerfatma, and I can check it for baseline internal gas volume specifications and competitive atmospheric differential.
Going from the marshland south of the St. Mary's River all the way up to Ontario in January, that ball might be flatter than a nickel on a railroad track before it gets to Buffalo. In that case, we'll need to re-pressurize it.
Rather than dealing with a pump or a compressed air tank, I'm thinking that we'd just take the ball to a field sobriety checkpoint and wait till they pull Jim Irsay over - then we can have him blow it up.
posted by beaverboard at 06:29 PM on January 04, 2016
Through week 10, carnage week, I was averaging 11.7 points per week and was third from the bottom. Over the last 7 weeks I averaged 17.4 and finished 4th. I would write this off as a hot stretch but this followed the same pattern as the pick em from last year, and 2013, and 2012. Four years straight of sucking so bad at the start of the year that I think I'm out of it only to finish strongly.
1. Drop the rule.
2. I can't find a good strategy for guessing the exact spread so I'm all for the 5-3-2 point system.
posted by tron7 at 06:39 PM on January 04, 2016
Close but no cigar (or football). I added it up last night and thought I tied him, but alas I must of been wrong.
CONGRATULATIONS grum.
I agree, no points for spread unless you pick the winner.
I agree with Howard_T that you should get more points for hitting the spread exactly then for being within the margin or error.
Yes more points for picking the winner.
posted by ic23b at 06:47 PM on January 04, 2016
Howard, yerfatma, and I can check it for baseline internal gas volume
I've been dealing with a slow leak on my wife's car for the past week or 2, using my son's girlfriend's bicycle pump to do the inflation. How the pump wound up in the back of my truck is a good question, but it's there so it gets used. In any case, I have been doing much study of Gay Lussac and his gas laws, and I feel that between the 3 of us, we can get this done.
Having Jim Irsay blow up the football could create a hazardous situation. Alcohol fumes are combustible, and I would bet after an evening of drinking, Mr. Irsay's breath might not be pleasantly scented. Canada would be correct in refusing entry to such a dangerous device.
posted by Howard_T at 10:24 PM on January 04, 2016
I cry foul! Grum and the NFL colluded! Grum made his picks and the NFL fixed the games so that he would come out on top. Why, I bet this goes all the way to the top!
posted by NoMich at 09:34 AM on January 05, 2016
Congrats Grum!
I thought this was fun and am happy to have the proposed changes or none. What I'd like is more banter in the threads ;)
posted by billsaysthis at 11:56 AM on January 05, 2016
Congrats Grum! I hope that other Trump collapses late in the electoral season just like I did.
posted by tommybiden at 05:32 PM on January 05, 2016
Congrats to grum and thanks to rcade for organizing it all
Re: the rules, I agree with ic23b above.
posted by rumple at 06:51 PM on January 05, 2016
Final Standings
During the 2016 NFL season, SportsFilter held an NFL Pick 'Em contest with a first prize of an NFL Official Game Ball. Here are the standings after the final weekend.
After checking the results, Grum@work has won the contest by one point over Ic23b. It went down to the final game of the season between Minnesota and Green Bay, which Minnesota won by 7. If Minnesota had won by three fewer points, Ic23b would've tied Grum and won the contest on a tiebreaker. Bender takes the Costanza, putting up a valiant 20-point effort in a final stab at handing the prize for futility to someone else.
There were four broken locks in New England's loss to Miami: Grum@work, Tommytrump, Goddam and myself.
These games were nailed exactly: Indianapolis by 6 (Irish627, Tommytrump, Goddam), San Francisco by 3 (Rumple, Billsaysthis), Denver by 7 (Rumple, Holden), Kansas City by 6 (Bender, Irish627), Washington by 11 (Tommytrump), Pittsburgh by 16 (Goddam), Minnesota by 7 (Howard_t) and New Orleans by 3 (Grum@work).
Week 17 Results
Detroit by 4 over Chicago
New Orleans by 3 over Atlanta
Philadelphia by 5 over N.Y. Giants
Houston by 24 over Jacksonville
Buffalo by 5 over N.Y. Jets
Miami by 10 over New England
Indianapolis by 6 over Tennessee
Pittsburgh by 16 over Cleveland
Cincinnati by 8 over Baltimore
Washington by 11 over Dallas
Kansas City by 6 over Oakland
Seattle by 30 over Arizona
Carolina by 28 over Tampa Bay
Denver by 7 over San Diego
San Francisco by 3 over St. Louis
Minnesota by 7 over Green Bay
Full contest rules here.
Check your score last week on the results spreadsheet at Google Docs.