12/03/24
June 06, 2006
World Cup Confidence Pool: now open for business. 32 teams, 3 points for each win, 1 point for each tie, deadline in 5 pm Friday GMT, 12 Noon EDT.
Yeah, I just realized that this is a very bountiful points pool. Your top pick is at 32 points and each time they win you'll get 32 x 3 = 96 points. And with the winner of the tournament likely winning 7 games that makes for 672 points riding on just one pick.
posted by gspm at 11:51 AM on June 06, 2006
It's like the history of pinball. The machines that I started out on in the '70s only had 4 or 5 digits and a free game was had at 500 points. Nowadays, you can score into the tens of millions and you don't get a free game until you are well into those millions. It's pinball inflation!
posted by NoMich at 12:08 PM on June 06, 2006
I can always add a huge multiplier if you all want free games.
posted by qbert72 at 12:45 PM on June 06, 2006
The machines that I started out on in the '70s only had 4 or 5 digits and a free game was had at 500 points. Dude.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 12:49 PM on June 06, 2006
Does anyone know what the TV scheduel is or perhaps where I can find it. I am totally noob when it comes to futbol but the World Cup seems like a good place to get my feet wet. These confidence pools are uber fun and if enough games are televised in my area without needing expensive cable packages I would be totally down.
posted by HATER 187 at 12:51 PM on June 06, 2006
Thanks for setting this up! I'm in with my dubious picks, but hey, it's the world cup, so who knows what will happen.
posted by trox at 12:55 PM on June 06, 2006
TV Schedule: I just printed it out myself.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 12:56 PM on June 06, 2006
Thanks Texan.
posted by HATER 187 at 12:58 PM on June 06, 2006
The machines that I started out on in the '70s only had 4 or 5 digits and a free game was had at 500 points. Dude. Awesome link, Texan. Jebus, that's beautiful. Dude. In a Blackhawks uni, to boot.
posted by NoMich at 01:28 PM on June 06, 2006
Awww NoMich, those were the days...best I can remember.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 01:54 PM on June 06, 2006
I'm in. Though the UI would really benefit if you added some RJS goodness to remove selected teams from the other comboboxes, which I don't think would be too hard since you used Rails. As a fellow TxD, I'm curious if you're using Lighttpd or Mongrel and how hard was the deployment?
posted by billsaysthis at 03:18 PM on June 06, 2006
I know the picks form sucks, it'll get worked on when I have more time for it. Also, it's never as simple as it looks. Removing selected teams seems like a no-brainer, but it has a lot of drawbacks, and it's most likely not what I'm going to do. Lighttpd. Easy. Just follow the guide (they have one).
posted by qbert72 at 03:31 PM on June 06, 2006
Oh man, that's annoying. I made my picks, but didn't realize I listed Togo twice (when I meant Togo AND T&T). So it reset ALL my picks. That's harsh.
posted by grum@work at 11:12 PM on June 06, 2006
That's harsh. Ditto, but I don't know what mistake I made.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 11:49 PM on June 06, 2006
Me too, TX. You can easily hit the back button to get back to your picks, but finding out which team you left blank at #10 is fucking hard. I'll try again tomorrow.
posted by Ufez Jones at 12:15 AM on June 07, 2006
Funny because I didn't really have that problem and all of my teams were going in at random.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:21 AM on June 07, 2006
I put all the teams into a spread sheet in an alphabetical list and then shuffled them into a new (crappy) list which ensured that i could just follow my list from top to bottom when entering my picks. But because my picks were just done on a whim I might want to redo them in case i have a single pool (four enter! only two survive!) that is collectively ranked too high. not that that will necessarily help, 32 picks is a whole bunch.
posted by gspm at 06:51 AM on June 07, 2006
Come on Angola!
posted by scully at 08:16 AM on June 07, 2006
OK, you win. I'll try to give all you guys something better before the end of the day.
posted by qbert72 at 09:43 AM on June 07, 2006
I've entered in picks for Las Vegas and British oddsmakers, based on who they believe will win the World Cup. It's not perfect, but should be pretty close.
posted by grum@work at 12:16 PM on June 07, 2006
How do we access the odds, grum?
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 12:28 PM on June 07, 2006
Maybe instead of removing preselected teams from the drop boxes you could just change the font, or color of the font. That way you could tell which teams you already selected and if you wanted to swap a couple they would still be in the menu. Just a thought.
posted by MrFrisby at 12:35 PM on June 07, 2006
How do we access the odds, grum? I just googled them. "world cup 2006 odds las vegas" and "world cup 2006 odds" gave me my results and I picked the links I recognized. They initially show the individual games, but if you pick "futures" or "win tournament", you'll find the standing odds for each nation to win the golden trophy. Of course, the lines are heavily determined by the bets laid by the public, so that's why the British link has England as the #2 team. All that UK cash on their own blokes has thrown those odds out of whack. The LV odds probably reflect too much money on the American squad, but at least they aren't in the top 4.
posted by grum@work at 04:35 PM on June 07, 2006
OK, new pick submission form is online for all you loudmouths. Basically, it will tell you as you go if you're placing the same team at two spots (go Angola!), and it will also prevent you from submitting incoherent picks. I hope this helps you. Now, it's time for you to pay me back, and tell me who I should pick. Is there any chance that Brazil will not win? If so, who are the likely upset countries? Can Germany and their calf-blood-filled players get it done?
posted by qbert72 at 04:36 PM on June 07, 2006
funny. I wasn't editorializing at all. I simply wanted to support Angola. They really deserve it.
posted by scully at 04:53 PM on June 07, 2006
Nice work qbert. Unfortunately I can't help you with picks, except share my big secret. Well I didn't exactly randomly pick all 32 teams. First I listed all the divisions and picked two from each based on name recognition mostly. The teams that were left I had the spreadsheet randomly assign numbers to and then sorted them to get my 1-16 teams. I repeated the process for 17-24 and 25-32. Amazingly, I'm not too far off from the Vegas picks. I have a few teams that are way off, but hey, upsets happen right?
posted by MrFrisby at 05:45 PM on June 07, 2006
terrapin, I wasn't referring to your comment, more to the fact that in the previous version welcomed you with 32 votes in favour of Angola, which made for a powerful statement.
posted by qbert72 at 06:09 PM on June 07, 2006
OK, you win. I'll try to give all you guys something better before the end of the day. A million thanks, qbert. Meine Vorwähleren werden gewählt.
posted by Ufez Jones at 10:04 PM on June 07, 2006
Meine Vorwähleren werden gewählt "A pint of calf's blood in your name..."
posted by smithers at 10:32 PM on June 07, 2006
Yikes...sorry guys...please delete my first two user name choices. I'm going with World_Champs_Play_World (Tex). Didn't know it would show all 3.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 11:19 PM on June 07, 2006
Despite you people not helping me out, my picks are in. My dark horses are Iran and Tunisia, for what it's worth.
posted by qbert72 at 11:17 AM on June 08, 2006
What happens if it goes to penalties? Is that a draw or does the eventually victorious team get 3 points? (I'm going to put a team in an a team from this lot's predictor)
posted by JJ at 11:22 AM on June 08, 2006
If there is a victorious team, it's not a draw, right? 3 points for Iran, none for Italy. (The Predictor is already in. I'm guessing it's grum's work.)
posted by qbert72 at 12:08 PM on June 08, 2006
The Predictor is already in. I'm guessing it's grum's work. Bzzt. Didn't do it.
posted by grum@work at 12:26 PM on June 08, 2006
grum...the odds thing above...I misunderstood your first post about it....Nevermind. I believe I was wearing the dense hat yesterday. Is everyone keeping up with the injury news? There's some interesting stuff out there that may effect teams early on.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 12:36 PM on June 08, 2006
I'm lame. I show up on the sidebar as in, but I don't think I put an email in, I got an error message. So now I can't see if I have everything filled out or not. Well, it's probably fate.
posted by rainbaby at 01:22 PM on June 08, 2006
Yeah, you're in. I can email you your confirmation page if you want. Is the email in your profile correct?
posted by qbert72 at 01:30 PM on June 08, 2006
Yes, thank you qbert72.
posted by rainbaby at 02:01 PM on June 08, 2006
Got it!
posted by rainbaby at 02:11 PM on June 08, 2006
posted by qbert72 at 11:24 AM on June 09, 2006
Thanks qbert72. Looks great!
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 12:18 PM on June 09, 2006
Well, looks huge. Go Iran! All the way to the bank!
posted by qbert72 at 12:27 PM on June 09, 2006
Thank, qb. Looks like I'm the only one taking the Czechs all the way. Then again, only one took the US for the win. It's going to be a fun month.
posted by Ufez Jones at 01:25 PM on June 09, 2006
And owlhouse picked the U.S. to finish last, in the pool score at least, so it's nice we have some balance.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 01:45 PM on June 09, 2006
KO-REA? Tex sniped me with 20pts. I thought 13 would be the highest for sure.
posted by YukonGold at 01:46 PM on June 09, 2006
Tunisia vs Iran for 3rd place, dudes!
posted by qbert72 at 01:47 PM on June 09, 2006
Oh crap, is Mexico that good? Paraguay? Iran? It looks like I really undervalued those 3.
posted by tron7 at 02:54 PM on June 09, 2006
Go Ukraine!
posted by garfield at 03:11 PM on June 09, 2006
Garf, you are the first (non-Ukranian) person in the history of history to ever say that phrase.
posted by Samsonov14 at 04:02 PM on June 09, 2006
In Ukraine soccer plays you!
posted by HATER 187 at 04:08 PM on June 09, 2006
MrFrisby in the (very) provisional lead. Go Ecuador indeed!
posted by qbert72 at 04:37 PM on June 09, 2006
I'm Ukrainian, partially. How else could I have an addiction to perogies? Besides, Shevchenko is awesome.
posted by garfield at 04:42 PM on June 09, 2006
Sorry Garf. I didn't know. Now I understand why you smell like potatoes and cheddar cheese.
posted by Samsonov14 at 05:21 PM on June 09, 2006
geez, im dead last already.
posted by Folkways at 06:08 PM on June 09, 2006
Hey! Not a bad start. I'm sure I won't be up there long. That is unless the Germans get knocked out early. And here are the SpoFi Collective (excluding betting odds and predictor) picks: Rank - Team (average pts) 32 - BRA (31.425) 31 - ENG (28.6) 30 - GER (28.525) 29 - ARG (27.325) 28 - FRA (26.525) 27 - ITA (25.275) 26 - ESP (24.8) 25 - NED (24.625) 24 - CZE (23.525) 23 - POR (22.525) 22 - MEX (21.65) 21 - USA (19.925) 20 - SWE (18.875) 19 - UKR (17.25) 18 - POL (16.95) 17 - CRO (15.775) 16 - SUI (15.35) 15 - KOR (13.95) 14 - PAR (13.15) 13 - CIV (12.875) 12 - AUS (12.175) 11 - SER (11.4) 10 - JPN (10.8) 9 - CRC (10.225) 8 - ECU (9.725) 7 - IRN (8.675) 6 - TUN (8.3) 5 - GHA (8.15) 4 - ANG (5.25) 3 - KSA (5.05) 2 - TOG (4.825) 1 - TRI (4.525)
posted by MrFrisby at 07:18 PM on June 09, 2006
KO-REA? Tex sniped me with 20pts. I thought 13 would be the highest for sure. Kamsamnida. Who knows what will will happen with the Red Devils after France win the group? It could be yakimandu all around! Or Swiss cheese. Whichever.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 08:42 PM on June 09, 2006
SpoFi Collective is in and, appropriately, in the middle of the pack. I'm impressed by the level of confidence we have in Brazil. Why even play the tournament? I'm also thinking that I am insane to have given so many points to Iran and Tunisia.
posted by qbert72 at 09:24 PM on June 09, 2006
I had no idea Brazil was supposed to be so good. My "random" picks put them in first. I guess their stars are aligned. Ecuador was one of my picks that was way off from the betting odds. If I'm lucky, they will have a good run. This 3 point system will make any upsets really worth picking. /quietly awaits grum's other stats
posted by MrFrisby at 10:12 PM on June 09, 2006
Oh wait, DrJohn is not in it. What's up with that?
posted by MrFrisby at 10:20 PM on June 09, 2006
Uh Oh, it's the dreaded TextDrive "500 - Internal Server Error"!
posted by billsaysthis at 12:21 AM on June 10, 2006
I'm impressed by the level of confidence we have in Brazil. Its because Brazil is the only team that most people know that is any good. And is Mexico actually good?
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:13 AM on June 10, 2006
And is Mexico actually good? Yes.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 08:12 AM on June 10, 2006
Oh wait, DrJohn is not in it. What's up with that? I decided that it's only fair that one of you gets a chance to win the occasional pool around here. Also feeling some guilt over leaving the management of the software entirely on qbert's shoulders over the past few weeks. Sorry, q, I'll come back to help.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:17 AM on June 10, 2006
For those of you who picked Togo to win it all.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 10:36 AM on June 10, 2006
I didn't, but now I'd like to.
posted by chicobangs at 10:59 AM on June 10, 2006
nownot open for business.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 12:13 PM on June 10, 2006
Sorry about that. I need to enable caching on a few pages to prevent the app from sometimes touching my host's resource limits (and being ruthlessly killed). I'll do it tomorrow. In the meantime, I've restarted the app, but it may get killed at any moment. Please bear with us for another 24 hours. Thanks!
posted by qbert72 at 01:22 PM on June 10, 2006
And owlhouse picked the U.S. to finish last, in the pool score at least, so it's nice we have some balance Not only won't the US get out of the group, they will finish behind Ghana. Ghana, first time at a senior WC, have a tremendous record at youth level. And the US team is on par with 1998, when they finished bottom. The 2002 performance was an aberration, due to luck of the draw and favourable results in other games.
posted by owlhouse at 09:00 PM on June 10, 2006
Yes. Crap. Wow I'm in second. Obviously we aren't very far in but its a start. Now Mexico has to play like trash.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 09:16 PM on June 10, 2006
Dammit, who is Mr. Frisby again? njsk8r, is that you? You damn kids and your names, always changin' fer no good damn reason...
posted by The_Black_Hand at 10:20 PM on June 10, 2006
yes.
posted by chicobangs at 12:17 AM on June 11, 2006
Hehe. Yeah that's me. I changed it because I was told by Samsonov, qbert and goddam that I had one of the worst screennames on SpoFi and that it made me sound like a 14 year old.
posted by MrFrisby at 01:03 AM on June 11, 2006
Who is The Afro Mafia?
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:17 AM on June 11, 2006
Don't worry, MrFrisbynjsk8r20, as long as this mutt's around, you can't possibly have the worst screen name around. And everybody should know by now that you're 16.
posted by The_Black_Hand at 10:43 AM on June 11, 2006
You know TBH every time you post something degrading about redsoxrgay you could be destroying his self-esteem. In fact, you could drive him to such a severe state of depression that he may contemplate taking his own life.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 01:49 PM on June 11, 2006
Maybe he's an actual player on the Red Sox himself, who wishes to share a few unspoken feelings in a positive environment, but is ultimately afraid to come out because of his precarious social position and his fear of retribution.
posted by chicobangs at 04:31 PM on June 11, 2006
Or he could be a fuckhead.
posted by Mr Bismarck at 04:36 PM on June 11, 2006
Back on topic: I need to enable caching on a few pages to prevent the app from sometimes touching my host's resource limits (and being ruthlessly killed). I'll do it tomorrow. This is now done. From now on, you shouldn't see "500 - Internal Server Error". You may still (but shouldn't) get some "500 - Application error", but these should be limited to what you were doing just then, and not mean that the whole site is down. I've entered the Portugal win, and I think we're up to date on the results side. I stink pretty bad, up to now. If you want to help out in entering game results, you can discuss it with gspm. Thanks for your patience!
posted by qbert72 at 04:56 PM on June 11, 2006
qbert: may request a pony for the leader board?
posted by NoMich at 05:45 PM on June 11, 2006
Sure, ponies ahoy! The current design is woefully inadequate for a 32 teams, 43 participants pool. I'm very open to suggestions. Sortable tables (for the standings and the "Everybody's picks" tables) are coming soon, by the way.
posted by qbert72 at 05:55 PM on June 11, 2006
/quietly awaits grum's other stats Jeez! I was busy this weekend, and I'm still trying to catch up on all the recorded WC matches in their HD glory. Besides, there are way too many selections for me to whip up quickly. My favourite moment so far: watching Swedish fans act like their players were killed on the field of play, and the T&T fans acting like their team had just won the cup, and realizing that these reactions were for the same result (a 0-0 draw).
posted by grum@work at 08:46 PM on June 11, 2006
Okay, here are some stats (after removing the two oddsmakers and Decision Technology picks): Top 5 Teams With Widest Distribution of Ranking (based on standard deviation of selections): 1. Cote d'Ivoire (sd=6.79) 2. USA (sd=6.39) 3. Costa Rica (sd=6.17) 4. Tunisia (sd=6.09) 5. Ecuador (sd=6.06) Top 5 Teams With Smallest Distribution of Rankings (based on standard deviation of selections): 1. Brazil (sd=1.03) 2. England (sd=2.52) 3. France (sd=3.00) 4. Spain (sd=3.47) 5. Ghana (sd=3.49) Top 5 Projections Furthest from the Group Average (based on root mean square of the differences= {([X1-A1]2+[X2-A2]2+...+[X32-A32]2)/32}0.5 where X# = person's pick, A# = group average pick): 1. ursus_comiter (rsd=7.23) 2. qbert72 (rsd=6.94) 3. The_Black_Hand (rsd=6.14) 4. Mr Frisby (rsd=5.87) 5. gspm (rsd=5.56) Top 5 Projections Closest to the Group Average (based on root mean square of the differences = {([X1-A1]2+[X2-A2]2+...+[X32-A32]2)/32}0.5 where X# = person's pick, A# = group average pick): 1. grum@work (rsd=2.21) 2. NoMich (rsd=2.38) 3. BullpenPro (rsd=2.48) 4. Ricardo (rsd=2.85) 5. holden (rsd=3.19) Note for the mathematically inclined: Yes, I realize that I should have removed the X# results from the group average for each value of # before finding the root mean square, but I'm a lazy bastard who doesn't really think it will make all that much of a difference.
posted by grum@work at 10:09 PM on June 11, 2006
Sure, ponies ahoy! The current design is woefully inadequate for a 32 teams, 43 participants pool. I'm very open to suggestions. Well, I was just thinking that since side-scrolling is happening on the leaderboard, we should have the position number and person's name on the right side as well as the left side. By the time that I'm done side-scrolling, I can't tell who has how many total points.
posted by NoMich at 10:10 PM on June 11, 2006
Top 5 Projections Furthest from the Group Average 1. ursus_comiter (rsd=7.23) 2. qbert72 (rsd=6.94) Looks like the race for the Costanza so far. Thanks for the stats work, grum!
posted by qbert72 at 08:37 AM on June 12, 2006
Wow, grum. Maths is hard.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 08:53 AM on June 12, 2006
Yes, I realize that I should have removed the X# results from the group average for each value of # before finding the root mean square, but I'm a lazy bastard who doesn't really think it will make all that much of a difference. For crying out loud, grum, if you're not going to take the numbers seriously, how can you expect us to? Looks like I'm middle-of-the-pack of the group most likely to finish middle-of-the-pack. And it's Monday. I'm going to go listen to my Antonio Salieri audio cassettes and almost, but not quite, cry.
posted by BullpenPro at 09:07 AM on June 12, 2006
we should have the position number and person's name on the right side as well as the left side Sold. The team abbreviations will also be duplicated at the bottom. I may also move the W-L-D at the bottom completely.
posted by qbert72 at 09:38 AM on June 12, 2006
Until I added the Czech win, at least.
posted by gspm at 01:42 PM on June 12, 2006
Woah, they crushed the US. Not a lot of draws in the tournament so far. Usually there are a lot more, no?
posted by qbert72 at 01:46 PM on June 12, 2006
I was wondering what qbert meant. Thanks grum for satisfying my need for statistical analysis. If you look at those of us in grum's list of Top 5 Projections Furthest from the Group Average, I'm in 5th now and the rest of you are 37, 41, 43, and 44. So at least I still lead that group.
posted by MrFrisby at 01:55 PM on June 12, 2006
More stats you don't need to know! Lowest possible score: 1566 To do this, you'd need to have no draws of any kinds in the group matches, have your 1 to 8 point teams win all 3 games (and stand atop their group), your 9 to 16 point teams win 2 games (and grab the #2 spot in each group), your 17 to 24 point teams win 1 game and your 25 to 32 point teams win 0 games (and all 16 of them therefore be eliminated from the WC). At that point, you need every single lower point team to win each of the playoff games they play, ending up with your 1 point team beating your 2 point team in the finals. Highest possible score: 4671 To do this, you'd need the reverse of the above to occur (and 32 point team wins it all). Average random score: 2854.5 This is based on an average ranking for a team being 16.5, and that each game is an equal random chance of A beating B, B beating A, or a draw. If this is the case, then an average result for a game would be each team would get 1 1/3 points, and therefore 4 points each for all the group matches.
posted by grum@work at 02:10 PM on June 12, 2006
One last thing: There are around 2.63131E+35 different combinations (that's over 263 decillion). To put that number into perspective, if I were to some how go back into time start entering picks into the confidence pool web page from the moment of the Big Bang (~13.7billion years ago), I'd only have it done in time for the World Cup opening match if I entered approximately 608,621,391,776,191,000 picks every second (that's over 600 quadrillion).
posted by grum@work at 02:39 PM on June 12, 2006
My head hurts....
posted by HATER 187 at 02:53 PM on June 12, 2006
Oh and grum if you're bringing up the big bang I hope you are prepared to explain some others theories of creation to all of us. Let's play fair now.
posted by HATER 187 at 03:00 PM on June 12, 2006
Grum, the thought of things that are infinite, be they large or small, makes me nervous. You make me nervous.
posted by tselson at 03:07 PM on June 12, 2006
Grum, you could finish in time because if you could time travel you could surely also fill many planets with clones of yourself and therefore, er, multitask. Food for thought: would narcisism be taboo on those worlds?
posted by billsaysthis at 03:19 PM on June 12, 2006
Okay, I's getting a little weird here. I thought this was a non-sectarian website? Let me be the first to go on record as saying that I don't believe in Grum.
posted by Samsonov14 at 04:49 PM on June 12, 2006
I believe it would be called the Universe Cup......you chest-thumping Earth people are so arrogant.
posted by smithers at 07:03 PM on June 12, 2006
Oh and grum if you're bringing up the big bang I hope you are prepared to explain some others theories of creation to all of us. Let's play fair now. Fair enough. Let's examine the existing religious timelines. Judaism/Christian/Islamic creation theory: If I went back to the time of creation (~4000 years ago, according to common theory), I'd have to enter 2,084,529,558,648,310,000,000,000 picks a second to get it done in time. That's over 2 septillion. Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, Sikhism creation theory: If I went back 4.2billion years, I'd have to enter 1,985,266,246,331,730,000 picks a second to get it done in time. That's almost 2 quintillion. Grum, you could finish in time because if you could time travel you could surely also fill many planets with clones of yourself and therefore, er, multitask. Actual planets probably didn't form until 9 billion years after the Big Bang. That's more than half the time I have to enter the picks! But if we assume all of the planets form at exactly the same time, I would have about 10,000,000,000,000,000 (10 quadrillion) extra people to make picks. But let's assume that it takes me a full second to make a fully sentinent (pick-entering capability and a suit to survive on the most remote planets) clone of myself, so I'd lose 10 quadrillion seconds making those clones. So the 10 quadrillion of us entering picks in the remaining 5 billion years (minus the cloning time of 316,880,878 years) means we could slow down to a glacial pace of only 178 picks a second.
posted by grum@work at 08:18 PM on June 12, 2006
Grum please tell me you are using your talent to do something productive in life instead of being a hotdog vendor or a burger flipper at McDonald's.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 08:24 PM on June 12, 2006
I am officially a grum@ist. Bite it, agnostics!
posted by Ufez Jones at 08:31 PM on June 12, 2006
Grum please tell me you are using your talent to do something productive in life instead of being a hotdog vendor or a burger flipper at McDonald's. I calculate pi for a living. Actually, I don't. But I do work with computers and math on a regular (but dull) basis. However, the insurance industry is a very stable one for long term employment, so I have no complaints.
posted by grum@work at 08:41 PM on June 12, 2006
Could the almighty grum do anything about my stinky feet? Oh, and qbert, thanks a ton for adding my pony. You're a star.
posted by NoMich at 10:30 PM on June 12, 2006
I knew it. g-m is an actuary.
posted by rainbaby at 06:45 AM on June 13, 2006
Perhaps Grum could calculate the perfect setting for my toaster. 4 Isn't dark enough and 5 is too dark. Putting it on 3 twice isn't dark enough, but using 3 and then 4 is too dark. Using 2 three times makes the bread too dry. Grum, should I buy a new toaster, or is the combination out there, somewhere?
posted by Mr Bismarck at 07:10 AM on June 13, 2006
Try two ones, then a four.
posted by The_Black_Hand at 08:15 AM on June 13, 2006
Grum, I'd like you to calculate back from when Odin carved the world Ymir's bones please.
posted by HATER 187 at 08:23 AM on June 13, 2006
Holy crap, I've dropped 39 places in two days! At this rate, I'll be enjoying the Summer of George in no time.
posted by The_Black_Hand at 10:03 AM on June 13, 2006
I knew it. g-m is an actuary Nope. I'm a programmer/analyst, but I do have a BMath degree from the University of Waterloo. Grum, should I buy a new toaster, or is the combination out there, somewhere? Get a new toaster. I haven't had time to figure out the Optimal Toasting Strategy (OTS) for your situation, but at a glance a 2 (to start the browning) then a 3 (to finish it) might be your best strategy. And when you go shopping for your next toaster, bring a loaf of bread with you to test in all the display models at the store. Just be prepared and bring a small garbage bag to properly dispose of all the "failed" toast tests, and a knife and a nice topping to eat the "successful" tests. Grum, I'd like you to calculate back from when Odin carved the world Ymir's bones please. Sadly, there doesn't seem to be an existing chronological timeline for the creation period of Norse mythology. I'm not sure that the carving of Ymir's bones (or laying of his corpse in the Ginnungagap by Odin, Vili and Ve, which is the other accepted creation history of Earth) is the proper place to start. Since the Ginnungagap may have existed at the same time as Niflheim (land of fog) and Muspelheim (land of fire), I could have theoretically started entereing picks in those places. Or I could choose the point in history when Ymir (the giant) and Audhumla (the cow) were first created from the collision of Niflheim and Muspelheim in the Ginnungagap. Nevertheless, I haven't found any source that gives me an accurate backdating timeline to begin with.
posted by grum@work at 01:24 PM on June 13, 2006
So, has the shipped sailed on my stinky feet?
posted by NoMich at 01:29 PM on June 13, 2006
Grum's supercomputer couldn't crunch the data THAT fast, NoMich...jeez.
posted by smithers at 01:50 PM on June 13, 2006
(NoMich - Your feet smell like dying.) When the collision of massive powers results in the creation of a giant and a cow, you know the universe is in good hands. I'll sleep better tonight, I tell you.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 02:21 PM on June 13, 2006
posted by Samsonov14 at 05:14 PM on June 13, 2006
Gosh I wish I had known Portugal was good ahead of time.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:46 PM on June 13, 2006
Stop your whining, Mr. 4th-place!
posted by bperk at 06:57 PM on June 13, 2006
Could the almighty grum do anything about my stinky feet? - Take off your shoes more often. - Make sure your feet get as much soap as the rest of your body does when you clean in the shower/bath. - Use a loofa and scrape off as much dead skin as you can from the bottom of your feet. That's what feeds the bacteria that makes your feet smell. Hugs, Heloise!
posted by grum@work at 08:18 PM on June 13, 2006
OK, back to appliances. My oven has 4 racks. Baking directions say to place on middle rack. If there were 5 racks it would be easy, but 4!?!. Is it the 2nd one from the top or the bottom?
posted by MrFrisby at 08:49 PM on June 13, 2006
It's both. Halfway through the cooking time, simply switch racks!
posted by grum@work at 10:13 PM on June 13, 2006
Ask Grum, I love it. Hey Grum, Grandma has some unsightly hair growth on her face. She's pushing 88 years old. Should I tell her about it? Should I tell Grandpa to shave it... Mom to shave it? Ignore it? I ignored it the other day even though Grandma was going out that night to see old friends. I feel bad.
posted by tselson at 10:48 PM on June 13, 2006
grum is 2 plus 2 ALWAYS 4?
posted by elovrich at 12:34 AM on June 14, 2006
I don't know about two plus two always being four but one plus one can sometimes equal one.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:58 AM on June 14, 2006
By the same token, and if the time is right, 1 plus 1 can equal 3.
posted by Folkways at 07:05 AM on June 14, 2006
grum is 2 plus 2 ALWAYS 4? My fruit fly-killing scientist friend has a t-shirt which bears the slogan; 2+2=5* *For extremely large values of 2. He explained it to me once and it made sense, but I suspect that's because we'd just been in the alcohol misting machine.
posted by Mr Bismarck at 07:40 AM on June 14, 2006
I know that with a microwave, 99 is greater than 100.
posted by NoMich at 10:04 AM on June 14, 2006
gspm, maybe you need to add some admins to the pool. I see that Spain has won but the standings are not updated. Come on dude, the suspense is killing me!
posted by MrFrisby at 10:32 AM on June 14, 2006
I know that with a microwave, 99 is greater than 100. So is 61*. (Sorry, every time I type 61*, my computer automatically puts an asterisk after it. It does the same thing with 73*. Weird.) Grum, my Sex Panther by Odeon says that 60% of the time, it works every time. Any thoughts on the math regarding that other 40%?
posted by BullpenPro at 10:50 AM on June 14, 2006
grum is 2 plus 2 ALWAYS 4? Only in base 5 or larger. In base 1 and base 2, the number "2" doesn't exist. In base 3, 2+2=11. In base 4, 2+2=10 Hey Grum, Grandma has some unsightly hair growth on her face. She's pushing 88 years old. Should I tell her about it? Should I tell Grandpa to shave it... Mom to shave it? Ignore it? I ignored it the other day even though Grandma was going out that night to see old friends. I feel bad. Get Grandma nice a drunk, and when she passes out, shave her yourself. When she awakens, the chances are she won't notice it's gone. Even if she does, what is she going to do, complain? Grum, my Sex Panther by Odeon says that 60% of the time, it works every time. Any thoughts on the math regarding that other 40%? Sex Panther? Sorry, but I think you might want to pose that question to this person.
posted by grum@work at 12:05 PM on June 14, 2006
Boy, that escalated quickly... I mean, that really got out of hand fast.
posted by YukonGold at 12:37 PM on June 14, 2006
Grum: Snarkiest god on the planet
posted by billsaysthis at 12:53 PM on June 14, 2006
actually; the "large values of 2" was correct, depending on when you round i.e. 2.4+2.4=4.8 rounded gives, 2+2=5 conversely 1.7+1.7=3.4 give 2+2=3
posted by elovrich at 01:24 PM on June 14, 2006
Ask Grum, I love it. I like it too, but now I'm starting to think he needs his own site (and I bet he'd be more popular than Martha Stewart). I also think he may be too smart for his own good. Well anyway, I am still beating him by 8 pts. And now I have some teams to root for and against which will make the soccer football itself more interesting for me. And I'm also 15 pts ahead of JJ. Woo-hoo!
posted by MrFrisby at 12:21 AM on June 15, 2006
Ahh, the sweet smell of the top 5. I must really be stinking up that joint though.
posted by YukonGold at 07:17 AM on June 15, 2006
Get Grandma nice a drunk, and when she passes out, I passed out first. Woke up with Q-tips in my nose and a pair of Depends on my head. Bad plan or poorly executed, still not sure which.
posted by tselson at 10:02 AM on June 15, 2006
Yukon, did you notice the discrepancy in the KSA-S. Korea-Saudi Arabia thing we discussed earlier? After the S. Korea game I was incredibly dazed and confused by not being able to find the 60 points. Nothing abnormal there really but...
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 10:57 AM on June 15, 2006
Yeah, had a hard time actually reading the table accurately there.
posted by YukonGold at 11:07 AM on June 15, 2006
KSA = Saudi Arabia. I don't if that's the official three letter country code, but that's how gspm entered it. Oh, I get it. The teams are ordered alphabetically by name, but it's the three letter code that's shown. That can indeed cause confusion. I'll see what I can do.
posted by qbert72 at 12:46 PM on June 15, 2006
KSA = Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, yes. I liked how TV dropped Serbia's official TLA, "SCG" in favour of "SMT" in their game.
posted by Mr Bismarck at 01:34 PM on June 15, 2006
I took the abbrev from the FIFA website. FWIW.
posted by gspm at 01:34 PM on June 15, 2006
DAMN YOU, ECUADOR! DAMN YOU TO HELL!
posted by mr_crash_davis at 02:51 PM on June 15, 2006
What exactly did Ecuador do?
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 02:58 PM on June 15, 2006
I wasn't complaining about the abbreviations. In the context of Yukon's earlier post I just got confused.
posted by Texan_lost_in_NY at 03:10 PM on June 15, 2006
Ecuador beat Poland 2-0 and then beat Costa Rica same score (I think) to advance to the second round.
posted by billsaysthis at 03:37 PM on June 15, 2006
Nor was I. I just can't read.
posted by YukonGold at 04:03 PM on June 15, 2006
Top 5 Projections Furthest from the Group Average 1. ursus_comiter (rsd=7.23) 2. qbert72 (rsd=6.94) Looks like the race for the Costanza so far. Thanks for the stats work, grum! Am I a lock yet?
posted by ursus_comiter at 01:47 AM on June 16, 2006
I find it interesting that the SpoFi collective is ranked 10 out of 44 players. Not really sure how that happened but its still interesting.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:11 AM on June 16, 2006
Did you notice how close the collective is to Las Vegas odds?
posted by MrFrisby at 06:14 AM on June 16, 2006
Holy crap, MrFrisby, you are kicking our asses. There's a pretty nice dropoff between you and #2. There's still a lot of soccer left to play though, so don't get too cocky.
posted by NoMich at 07:33 AM on June 16, 2006
Did you just call me #2, motherfucker?
posted by Samsonov14 at 11:22 AM on June 16, 2006
You know what this thread needs (besides calling Samsonov doodie) ? A new link to the standings Also, how is this page not being stored in my history? I swear, it's not in there.
posted by YukonGold at 12:14 PM on June 16, 2006
this page = that page = the standings
posted by YukonGold at 12:18 PM on June 16, 2006
Leaving aside USA, I clearly was wrong to pick Ukraine, France and Ivory Coast so high. Drogba always pulls one on me!
posted by billsaysthis at 03:08 PM on June 16, 2006
Uh-oh, Mister Frisball, it looks like I spoke too soon. There seems to be a dingleberry in your rearview mirror now.
posted by NoMich at 03:56 PM on June 16, 2006
I'm so sorry I missed joining in this fun. Man, leave the country for a few days and see what happens...
posted by worldcup2002 at 04:03 PM on June 16, 2006
Yeah NoMich, that's why I haven't done much trash talking. I knew my big lead would disappear after todays games. All my hopes of winning this thing pretty much depend on how well Ecuador & Portugal do. It would also help if Germany & Argentina get eliminated early as I think I ranked them a lot lower than everyone else. Do any of you experts know the chances of that happening?
posted by MrFrisby at 04:17 PM on June 16, 2006
Boy, it's going to be a long month...from third, to 42nd, up to 36th, back down to 40th. Oh, the humanity.
posted by The_Black_Hand at 04:47 PM on June 16, 2006
It would also help if Germany & Argentina get eliminated early as I think I ranked them a lot lower than everyone else. Do any of you experts know the chances of that happening? Somewhere between slim and none. And Slim just left town.
posted by squealy at 06:14 PM on June 16, 2006
Man, am I stinking up the joint or what? All my upset picks are duds so far. Goooooo Iran! Also, you football guys look like a cool bunch. Maybe I should start following football a little bit more to hang out with you. True story: coming back from work today we stopped downtown for some shopping. When we left it was gridlock all over. I was wondering what was going on until I saw a sign saying: Parking Football --------> I thought: "Damn the World Cup is getting popular even in Montreal. Such traffic just to watch games on TV." Then it dawned on me that it's the Alouettes opening game tonight. It was the other football. Still, I thought of the right one first.
posted by qbert72 at 10:06 PM on June 16, 2006
It's good to see you've been correctly reprogrammed, qb. Now I have to get you to be an Ipswich fan. We have Canadians on the team now and a bunch in our past and we haven't won anything in years. Perfect for a part time infatuation.
posted by Mr Bismarck at 07:56 AM on June 17, 2006
Dunno what to attribute it to, but the weekend's results have moved me up from about 41st to 25th. I'm on the move!
posted by gspm at 06:25 PM on June 18, 2006
I'm hanging around on the podium still. Of course, Korea and Ecuador are probably going to propel a lot of people past me if they do ANYTHING in the playoff rounds.
posted by grum@work at 06:40 PM on June 18, 2006
Just a thought - can we enter the FIFA rankings into the pool? We have the Collective, the Las Vegas and British odds, but it would be intereting to see if Sepp Blatter and the gnomes of Zurich can pick up the Costanza. And I think we should send it to them afterwards.
posted by owlhouse at 10:17 PM on June 18, 2006
FIFA rankings (from May) are in. Sitting pretty in 36th place.
posted by qbert72 at 10:22 AM on June 19, 2006
Oh great I'm getting beat by the FIFA rankings, now I'm really depressed.
posted by tron7 at 11:41 AM on June 19, 2006
What happens when Nike and Firefox get together and make a world cup extension? Awesomeness ensues. I can't believe I didn't have this the past two weeks.
posted by YukonGold at 03:48 PM on June 19, 2006
In a ratings vs ratings derby I have no added the ELO Ratings, a more chess-style rating system that purports to be more accurate than the FIFA rankings. So far, it is higher in the table.
posted by gspm at 05:41 PM on June 21, 2006
Man, each time we add a participant like this, I fall back one more place. Can we find useless experts that would make me feel good about myself?
posted by qbert72 at 06:17 PM on June 21, 2006
Don't feel so bad, qbert, the FIFA rankings are beating me, so...oh, wait, I'm beating you...so, anyway, ah, nevermind. Forget I said anything. Remain calm, all is well.
posted by The_Black_Hand at 08:01 PM on June 21, 2006
When it comes to picking the right teams to advance (32-17), USA is my first upset. But I only ranked them 19 and Ghana 12 so its not that bad. France better pull off some magic, I gave them 31 and that will be a major upset condidering my next 2 from that group are only 17 and 15. Maybe I'm reading to much into it, but I'm afraid I might start dropping faster than a pair of panties on prom night.
posted by MrFrisby at 01:09 PM on June 22, 2006
Me too, dude. I enjoyed the whole #2 thing. Go Germany!
posted by Samsonov14 at 03:05 AM on June 23, 2006
I dunno if anybody caught it, but there was a time (after the completion of the Group A matches I think) when MrFrisby dropped into a tie for first. But that only lasted until the afternoon of that day when the remaining matches came in.
posted by gspm at 08:47 AM on June 23, 2006
I'm closing in on the FIFA rankings. If not for ursus_comiter, they'd be in the thick of the Costanza race.
posted by qbert72 at 09:10 AM on June 23, 2006
Oh, I caught it, gspm. But as an USAican, I didn't feel like being a jerk about it. I was content to just sit back. USA! USA! USA!
posted by Samsonov14 at 11:06 AM on June 23, 2006
Can someone please explain to me why three of FIFA's top 11 teams were in the same grouping?
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 12:36 PM on June 23, 2006
...and two of them still didn't advance?
posted by chicobangs at 01:35 PM on June 23, 2006
The USA qualified first in our group, but due to the rankings were not given the regional #1 seed. It went to Mexico. After the eight #1 seeds are given, it is simply the luck of the draw. (with some more regional restrictions, like there can't be more than two European teams in any group etc.)
posted by tselson at 02:08 PM on June 23, 2006
Time to start doing my research. Thanks for setting this up, gspm! For those wondering what a confidence pool is, you can read the quick primer here. The only difference is that you will get 3 points multiplied by your pick for each win.