March 14, 2006

This could change the draft pretty significantly if the Saints end up with Brees. I wonder if they will move down or just take a different player instead at the 2 spot. Maybe the Titans will try to move up to get Leinart.

posted by bperk at 12:29 PM on March 14, 2006

Well let's not forget about Oakland. Do you think that they'll make a run for Brees now? As for the New Orleans visit, here's a quote from the Great Blue North Draft Report: When asked the question at a post-visit news conference, new Saints' head coach Sean Payton said that signing Brees would give the Saints "flexibility" on draft day, but he wouldn't rule out drafting a QB at the #2 pick. Meanwhile, all Brees would say is that when asked if he talked to the Saints about their draft plans is that he was "not sure" what the Saints will do with the second pick", however, he did add that he "assumed they would not take a QB because once he signed he would be there "a long time."

posted by wingnut4life at 12:39 PM on March 14, 2006

I was really hoping for Brees in Miami, not Pepa. Now that he's on the way, though, I hope he can establish a chemistry with Chambers, not be an asshole, stay away from South Beach, and for God's sake, don't go near any type of boat!

posted by The_Black_Hand at 12:52 PM on March 14, 2006

Well, the Saints don't want to be transparent less other teams try to low-ball them for their pick. But, realistically, carrying two high-priced QBs on your roster would be crazy, especially considering how many other needs they have. Plus, they could move down in the draft only a couple slots and still get a great pick in Ferguson, Williams, or Hawk. Has Oakland been in the mix for Brees? I thought it was a two-horse race by now. Culpepper has to be pretty happy to be back in Florida. What a coup for him! No state income tax is almost the same as getting more money.

posted by bperk at 12:54 PM on March 14, 2006

Is the second-round pick more of a sign of the Vikings' distaste for Culpepper, or the effect of his antics on his market value?

posted by kirkaracha at 12:56 PM on March 14, 2006

I guess Oakland wasn't willing to give up their second round pick, that's why Daunte went to PhinLand.

posted by wingnut4life at 01:03 PM on March 14, 2006

Culpepper's contract is significant and there aren't many teams that can absorb a contract like that. Couple that with his serious injury and shaky beginning last year and you have a second round draft pick.

posted by bperk at 01:28 PM on March 14, 2006

I think the salary cap is the reason why draft picks are so important. Rookies are generally cheaper than veterans.

posted by bperk at 01:34 PM on March 14, 2006

So essentially, NFL franchises sign their marquee talent to contracts that only afford them 2nd round picks in trades if the guy demands a trade? Every franchise has a contract like Culpepper's. And because it's not guaranteed who cares how big the contract is? Is this just salary cap issues? I think the salary cap is the reason why draft picks are so important. Rookies are generally cheaper than veterans. Yes - because they're unproven and unexperienced. These aren't trades - they're giveaways. If Minnesota could afford Daunte, they could certainly afford getting at least a number two receiver or a good special teams player or even another giant contract. Is it no one is willing to get Daunte except the Fish? Half the league is looking for a QB! Meanwhile, two years ago Clinton Portis gets traded for Champ Bailey. As far as I can remember this was the last trade the NFL has had that is even remotely similar to the other leagues. And I even then thought that it was a wierd deal. At least in the MLB, NBA and NHL you can be assured of getting decent prospects in return. Maybe 2nd round picks in the NFL are like 1st round picks in other leagues. But I doubt it. I'm still flummoxed.

posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 01:37 PM on March 14, 2006

Does a portion of the salary traded count against the trading teams cap? That would explain the infrequency of big contracts traded. -This is totally from Madden(the video game) so it could be way off.

posted by tron7 at 01:51 PM on March 14, 2006

The Shaun Alexander and Culpepper situation are very different. Shaun Alexander got low-balled because teams feel like they can get a cheaper rookie running back to come and perform right away (see Cadillac Williams) and Alexander is old by RB standards. Culpepper got low-balled for the reason I mentioned above. Trades are infrequent for salary cap reasons (as tron pointed out). The team takes a salary cap hit of the pro-rated signing bonus.

posted by bperk at 02:07 PM on March 14, 2006

I'm a huge Dolphins fan, and I'm excited about them getting Culpepper! When it was down to Brees and Culpepper, I was actually leaning toward Brees. But the more I thought about it, the more Culpepper seemed like the better choice - he wants to be in Miami, he will probably have better chemistry with Chambers and McMichael (than Brees would've), and torn ligaments in the knee is MUCH easier and has a better chance of recovery than a torn rotator cuff. But Culpepper does have small hands and a tendency to fumble. I just hope he quits doing that stupid arm roll when he throws a touchdown, I hate that! But I'm glad to have him!

posted by BigTallChris at 02:14 PM on March 14, 2006

New Orleans wins this matchup. While both Brees and Culpepper were 1st round picks, both were injured last season and both earn approx. $10 million a year that is where the likeness ends. Brees is 2 years younger, a true good citizen and has better overall stats. Brees also handled the adversity he faced in San Diego, with Rivers and Flute and The Manning Derby and he came out and had one of his best years ever in 2005. As a Cowboy Fan I would have loved to have Drew Brees but I would not have wanted Culpepper. I rather stick with "The Statue" Drew Bledsoe. Good Job, New Orleans!

posted by Termite at 02:39 PM on March 14, 2006

Personally, I think that both New Orleans and Miami are taking a risk. Don't forget about Dante's knee. Wasn't that a movie once? Anyway, the 'phins cut Biran Griese a couple of days ago, but said that they'll probably re-sign him. Do you think the Culpepper move will change the teams and/or Griese's view on this?

posted by wingnut4life at 03:12 PM on March 14, 2006

bperk, I have to admit that I've never liked Culpepper. He seems to lose control of situations and play poorly under stress. 86 career interceptions and 78 fumbles. Bledsoe is what Coach Parcells calls a "Game Manager" meaning that he controls the situation to the best of his teams ability and dosen't get frazzled. I just do not think that Culpepper would have been a proper fit in Big D. My personal opinion.

posted by Termite at 03:44 PM on March 14, 2006

Does anyone have a clue to what the Raiders will do as far as obtaining a QB. I have no idea! But as in the past, what ever decision Davis makes, it will be controversial. Raiders fans will either love it or hate it.

posted by livedawhile at 04:22 PM on March 14, 2006

Nobody is taking into consideration the fact that the Saints could stay pat and draft Drew Brees a "wall" at left tackle who will stay there for the next 10 seasons. The Saints have Deuce McCallister coming back next year and three solid receivers waiting in the wings. Give the Saints Fergueson and you've got a pretty solid foundation starting up. Lineart, Young, Williams go 3-5 this year...in that order...

posted by chemwizBsquared at 05:08 PM on March 14, 2006

two big idots.. brees and the phins. 1.) brees is going to get slaughtered when he lines up for the saints. he might as consider his career shortened by three to four years. hell have no o-line to protect him, and defenses are getting to fast for him to scramble constently. 2.)phins picked up a shacky at best QB. in my opinion no true talent, with questionable background.didnt they learn anything from the williams fiasco!! now they dont have anybody in the backfield, no running back worth anything or a quality QB to possibly get them down the field. their receivers are going to get tired of running down the field, turning around and never getting the ball.

posted by canes09 at 06:01 PM on March 14, 2006

Many thanks for all your help in keeping me up with the Saints. The rumors are out that they are possibly headed for San Antonio, and that would excite me, so keep up the good words. And, wingnut, you ain't really a dumbass. You haven't repeated your mistakes. I sobered up twice and found out I had gotten married both times. You have inspired me to work hard at not repeating my mistakes and I resolve to never sober up again.

posted by Bud Lang at 06:06 PM on March 14, 2006

Personally I think Tom Benson should be allowed to move the team where he pleases, after all he is the one that owns it. The Dolphins will definitely improve from this deal, yes Culpepper can be erratic but there are not many quarterbacks that can play at the level he can. Plus, maybe the Lions will be able to beat the Vikings now!

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:30 PM on March 14, 2006

Next, look at total yards (rushing and passing). Culpepper has 22,639 total yards in 81 games, an average of 279.5 yards per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history: Marino (61448 in 242 games, an average of 254 yards per game) Favre (55360 in 225 games, an average of 246 yards per game) PManning (33854 in 128 games, an average of 264.5 yards per game) KWarner (19474 in 73 games, an average of 266.7 yards per game) So Culpepper is also the most productive QB in terms of yards from scrimmage in NFL history on a per game basis.

posted by BigTallChris at 06:33 PM on March 14, 2006

Below are my responses to the criticisms I hear from the Culpepper haters: The Knee It is legitimate to be concerned about the knee, but this is an area we all need to defer to the doctors on. They are saying he is well ahead of schedule and will play next year. The trade hinges on his passing a physical, so if it goes through, that means the Fins docs say he’s OK. The decision on a QB of the future should not hinge on whether he'll be at full strength at the beginning of this year (this goes for Brees too). I can't think of a single QB whose career was ended or derailed by a kneee injury. I’ve asked in several threads if anyone could think of a single on and nobody came forward with any. In recent years, there has been virtually 100% recovery from knee injuries, including RBs, WRs and CBs who are much more dependent on their speed and cutting ability than a QB (even a mobile one) is. For those positions, the difference between 4.4 speed and 4.6 speed may be difference between star and scrub. Any loss int he ability to plant and cut on a dime fundamentally changes who that player is. Nonetheless, guys like EJames, Jamal Lewis, McGahee, etc. have all come back as good as new. For a QB, even a mobile one, it is much less important. Even if Culpepper goes from a 4.7 40 guy to 4.8 or 4.9, it won't make a huge difference. When RBs are able to come back from hideous knee injuries, it seems like a stretch to say that Culpepper can't or won't. There is a long list of QBs who have played at a HOF level for years with “bad knees” – Marino, Namath, Elway, Stabler, etc.

posted by BigTallChris at 06:35 PM on March 14, 2006

The Moss Culpepper's great numbers are not because of Randy Moss -- any more than Montana/Young were products of Rice. Or any more than Manning is a product of Harrison. Almost every great QB has had some great WRs. In 2004, Mossed missed 3 games and was just a decoy in 2 others. In those 5 games, Culpepper completed 113 of 166 passes (68%) for 1179 yards, 9 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to a QB rating of 99. In other games, he was hurt and simply didn’t do much. For that season, if you exclude passes thrown to Moss, he completed 330 of 463 passes (71.3%), for 3950 yards and 26 TDs. Even if you assume that none of his INTs were on passes thrown to Moss, which is doubtful, his QB rating excluding Moss was 105.9. Moreover, Moss clearly didn't make Kerry Collins into the Pro Bowler this year, even though he was opposite other quality WRs. The 2005 INTs Culpepper had a very bad start to 2005. He had 8 picks in the first 2 games, but had 6 TDs and 4 INTs in the 4 games after that. He was playing for a new OC, with a new set of receivers and an OL that had lost its anchor, Pro Bowl center Matt Birk. The OL was really struggling -- he was sacked 31 times in just over 6 games. You can't disregard his career numbers based on 2 bad games at the start of the season. Even the best QBs will occasionally have a 3-4 INT game.

posted by BigTallChris at 06:35 PM on March 14, 2006

The Backups Some people argue that the fact that his backups have had success in Minny means he is a product of the system. When they make this argument, they usually selectively ignore the numbers of his backups who did not play well. Even so, the reality is that a lot of QBs will do well in a good offensive system, with a decent OL and some talent around him. The Viking backups success is hardly unique. Take a look at the QB ratings of the following backups, with the starter in parentheses: Steve Young (Montana) 108.9 Steve Bono (Montana) 88.5 Jeff Kemp (Montana) 85.7 Scott Mitchell (Marino) 91.4 Craig Erickson (Marino) 86.3 Elvis Grbac (Young) 87.9 Jeff Garcia (Young) 89.9 Frank Reich (Kelly) 102.3 Jim Sorgi (Manning) 99.1 Matt Cassel (Brady) 89.4 Marc Bulger (Warner) 101.5 Trent Green (Warner) 101.8 Bernie Kosar (Aikman) 92.7 Rodney Peete (Aikman) 102.5 Jason Garrett (Aikman) 83.3 Billy Volek (McNair) 87.4 In addition to those, you have guys like Brooks, Brunell and Hasselbeck who looked good as backups to Favre and drew a lot in trades/FA. Same for Feeley behind McNabb. None of this means that Culpepper (or any of the QBs listed in parentheses above) are not great QBs. They are. Culpepper has put up incredible numbers and is a proven commodity. The Vikes improvement in the 2nd half of the season last year was not because Brad Johnson was better. It was because the OL, which was recovering from the loss of Matt Birk and a rookie at G, started to gel as the season went on. The OL gave up 29 sacks in the first 6 games. They gave up only 23 in the next 10 games. The other reason was that the defense improved dramatically in the second half of the season. In the first 7 games, the defense gave up 193 points, which is approximately 28 per game. In the next 9, they gave up 151 points, which comes out to an average of less than 17 per game. Gee, do you think a difference of 11 ppg allowed might make a difference in wins and losses?

posted by BigTallChris at 06:36 PM on March 14, 2006

“Game Management” A lot of people talk about certain QBs being good game managers. I hear that a lot about Brees and some Gusketeers also like to claim that he was a good game manager. I think that, in most cases, that is just someone's way of pumping up a guy they like on the basis of some intangible that cannot be verified or disproven. Let's face it, with the exception of occasional audibles, the coaches call the plays. Most of what people refer to as game management is really a reflection of the plays called by the coaches, not anything the QB has done. That said, I think there is some QB "game management" in the way the guy plays on 3rd and 4th down. "Managing the game" basically boils down to how well the QB keeps the chains moving, which basically boils down to converting 3rd and 4th downs. Avoiding turnovers is another aspect of game management. I was only able to find stats for this for the past 2 seasons. Culpepper’s conversion rate on 3rd and 4th downs has been excellent. Over the last 2 years, he has converted 98/196 (50%). This is the same as Payton Manning (119 of 238), but better than Brees (121/264 – 45.8%) and Brady (122/270 – 45.1%). Gus supporters claim he was a good game manager last year, but he converted only 50/160 third and 4th downs last year, which comes out to 31.25%. These numbers do not include plays in which the QB ran for a 1st down on 3rd or 4th down. The Draft Pick Giving up a 2nd rounder is a small price to pay (it's not clear to me now whether it is 2006 or 2007). Either way, there will be no one in the draft this year or next who is a proven commodity with Culpepper’s talent level. Certainly no one in the 2nd round. The price for high draft pick QBs is around $50 million over 6 years, with more than $20 million of that guaranteed. Culpepper’s contract is much more cap friendly. Clearly, the Fins decided that Brees’ price tag was simply too high. Now stop crying about getting a 29-year old, physically dominant QB who has put up numbers over his 7 year career that compare favorably to the best who have ever played the position. Credit and thanks to Fineas at finheaven.com for all of this great information!!!

posted by BigTallChris at 06:38 PM on March 14, 2006

bigtall, thanks for turning this into your personal culpepper blog. My only comment is about the one and only stat that really counts: how many superbowls has your daunte won? for that matter, how many post-season games has he won? How many post-season games has he choked in?

posted by irunfromclones at 07:16 PM on March 14, 2006

irunfromclones: how many superbowls has your daunte won? for that matter, how many post-season games has he won? How many post-season games has he choked in? 0 - 2 - 2

posted by BigTallChris at 08:31 PM on March 14, 2006

Damn, I guess the Phins just released Gus Frerotte. I've always liked that guy. He always knew his role was as a backup and not a starter. Always kept quiet and did his job. At least he finally got his chance last year to start. Now they'll be shopping around for a backup. Hey, the Lions have four, do ya want one?

posted by wingnut4life at 08:23 AM on March 15, 2006

Let's face it, with the exception of occasional audibles, the coaches call the plays. Paging Peyton Manning ...

posted by wfrazerjr at 09:52 AM on March 15, 2006

That's a shame about Frerotte. He made me cringe several times last year, and Jennie Finch has more arm strength (gratuitous Finch photo here), but he handled the situation like a pro and never bitched about being in a tough situation. I'm trying to figure out who'll be the backup...at this point, the Phins have that kid they got in the Feeley trade (Cleo freakin' Lemon), and Brock Berlin, who I believe is in NFL Europe. Miami must think Pepa's knee is okay, becuase they cut Gus loose without doctor's approval of Daunte's bum wheel.

posted by The_Black_Hand at 11:54 AM on March 15, 2006

I just want to thank TBH for the nice little transition from Gus to the Jennie Finch photo...

posted by wingnut4life at 02:09 PM on March 15, 2006

Culpepper is a good QB, but I will be happy to see him go. He is a fumbler and I believe he seems to have to much personal-emotional luggage to be a champion QB in the NFL. Come on the guy was born in a prison! The Vikes in the mean time need to start talking to Denver and get Jake the snake to minny- so he can get his ring. Oh, and good luck to you fins. You need it.

posted by vikesfan at 10:24 AM on March 17, 2006

Wingnut- Direct quote from my profile under favorite teams-Lions (next year will be the year)

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:38 PM on March 17, 2006

Jon Kitna isn't bad and McSomethingorother could turn out to be good. Plus, maybe Orlavsky is a superstar in waiting..... then again, I'd be better off cheering on the Texans.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 08:45 PM on March 17, 2006

I agree, Shaun King looks like a really dumb signing now. I'm not sure who will get Joey but there is a market out there and I won't be suprised if he goes to another team and does well. What will probably happen is the Vikings sign him and he tortures the Lions for the next ten years.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 05:35 AM on March 18, 2006

Sorry about the omit, I was talking about Joey.

posted by wingnut4life at 07:30 AM on March 18, 2006

Daunte is the best QB in Miami since Marino. That will say alot; until Brad Johnson gets his 2nd ring with the Vikes in 2006!!! Good luck Fins!!

posted by vikesfan at 04:14 AM on April 08, 2006