11/23/24
December 27, 2020
Jaguars Clinch First Overall Pick in NFL Draft: For the first time in franchise history, the Jacksonville Jaguars will make the first overall selection in the NFL Draft, a prize that's expected to deliver Clemson quarterback and Georgia native Trevor Lawrence. The winless New York Jets had their grips on the pick until it slipped from them with two victories in eight days.
I wrote about this the other day on Twitter after the Jets' first win. There have been 15 QBs taken with the 1st pick in the NFL draft in the last 20 years. Seems like a real coup to get that pick, right? But just three of those QBs led their team to the Super Bowl, and only two (Cam Newton and Eli Manning) have won a title.
It is a) good for a team to keep trying and b) not at all a lock that a #1 draft pick is going to lead a team to success, particularly on a 53-player NFL roster. Tanking is overrated; drafting first is overrated. Just ask a 76ers fan.
Speaking of which, the NBA gets partial credit for its lottery system, since its teams are much more susceptible to the influence of a single player than others, but even that has its flaws. For all the hand-wringing about who gets to pick first in basketball, only 5 of the #1 picks this century even have a title, and arguably only LeBron James (the exception that proves my rule) is responsible for leading his team to that title.
posted by werty at 09:15 PM on December 27, 2020
If Trevor Lawrence is really good instead of great, that's still a shot I'd want the Jaguars to have. This is a franchise that has produced no good quarterbacks since Mark Brunell left in 2003, aside perhaps from David Garrard.
Lawrence plus the cap space, draft picks and some promising young players also makes this an extremely attractive job for the next GM and coach.
posted by rcade at 10:46 PM on December 27, 2020
Trevor Lawrence is nothing that Jags fans haven't seen before.
You know what Parcells or Belichick would do. Trade the pick to Elway for his entire 2020's competitive future and win with a Simms or Hostetler instead.
If ownership is taken into account, an astute agent would much rather have his player go to Shad Khan's team than Woody Johnson's. But Khan has some house cleaning to do. Ownership is the reason Belichick scribbled on a piece of scrap paper to tell the post-Leon Hess Jets he was done with NY and leaving town.
Technically, Jax is not that small a market. In size of metro area, it's much bigger than other NFL towns like NOLA. The problem is regional. The Jags are relatively new and squeezed in among the Falcons, Bucs, and Dolphins. That's too tight a marketing window. If the Jags were in St. Louis, they'd own a good chunk of the swath from Minneapolis to New Orleans.
I know that some folks want the draft rules to be changed but the real rule change should be that guys like Mike Glennon are not allowed to serve as starting QB's, even in an emergency.
posted by beaverboard at 09:35 AM on December 28, 2020
The Jags are relatively new and squeezed in among the Falcons, Bucs, and Dolphins. That's too tight a marketing window.
Yeah, the Jags are the most popular team in a tiny chunk of the country. I wouldn't use newness as a reason, though, since the Panthers came in the same year and rule the Carolinas. There just wasn't much room for the team to claim fan loyalties outside of the Jacksonville TV market.
A St. Louis team would have south Illinois and eastern Kansas but I don't see them getting much further than that, based on this Twitter fan map from when the Rams were there.
I was more scared of Glennon starting than Minshew Sunday. In his first two games Jacksonville nearly beat Cleveland and Minnesota.
posted by rcade at 11:46 AM on December 28, 2020
...since the Panthers came in the same year and rule the Carolinas.
I still run into Washington fans here and there in the Raleigh area, but yeah, the Panthers have really sort of taken over as our football team of choice. Not sure how it's working out in South Carolina, though. Of course, it really helps that our weekly Fox game is the Panthers and not Washington anymore.
posted by NoMich at 12:30 PM on December 28, 2020
One of my favorite Jaguars fan memories was attending a game for the first time in 1999 to see Jacksonville trounce the Miami Dolphins in the playoffs 62-7. The city was still divided between longtime Dolphins fans and new Jaguars fans and busload after busload of Miami fans were driving past the lot where I was tailgating to the jeers of the locals who had switched allegiance.
That was the last game of both Dan Marino and Jimmy Johnson.
posted by rcade at 01:50 PM on December 28, 2020
I'd be surprised if the Jags didn't hear from Atlanta about trading the pick. They are going to need a QB. Matt Ryan plays like he's got the jitters a fair amount of the time, holds the ball too long, and his ball velocity has gone way down.
I would make that trade. The Falcons are bad now and will likely be bad for a while to come. Snagging a bunch of draft picks from them would help guarantee it.
Someone in the Jax front office has to remind themself that the team went to the conference title game with Bortles at QB and were one quarter of solid play shy of going to the Super Bowl. When you take the field in airbrushed two tone uniforms and the big bad Pittsburgh Steelers are scared to death of what you're going to do to them next, you know you've built a roster that has to be reckoned with.
posted by beaverboard at 07:03 PM on December 28, 2020
Haven't mentioned this before, but the excitement of the last three years has been a bit disorienting because I went through my adolescence and early adulthood utterly certain that there was only one Trevor Lawrence in this world who would ever matter - the multitalented composer, musician and producer heard here on baritone sax with Paul Butterfield.
However, I sure am glad there's more than one Isaiah Thomas.
posted by beaverboard at 08:08 PM on December 28, 2020
If the Jags trade the first overall pick instead of taking Trevor Lawrence fans will abandon the team. There's already a huge amount of dissatisfaction with a franchise that announced plans to take two home games a year away for games in London. Add to that 10-plus losses for 9 of the past 10 seasons and an ownership that tolerates absymal performance from the front office and coaches longer than any other team in the NFL.
Obviously it would be bad to pick Lawrence and see him become a bust, but I think it would be worse to not take him and risk seeing him succeed elsewhere. He's looking like a once-a-decade quarterback talent. Nothing is guaranteed but you cannot win anything in the NFL without that position and his upside is so enormous it could turn a doormat into a perennial playoff contender like Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck did for the Colts.
Even if he was only as good as Baker Mayfield, look at what the Browns have become since he was drafted. Before that they were the best team to see come to Jacksonville if you wanted a decent shot at seeing a victory.
posted by rcade at 11:50 PM on December 28, 2020
It's been so tough the last couple of weeks, knowing we would probably lose, hoping we would lose, sort of cheering we would lose, but deep down wanting to win, even if it wasn't in the best interest long term. With all the draft picks, cap space, a "generational" talent at QB (man, I hope he is), and some young stars, it may not take long to turn this ship around. At least, that's what I keep telling myself all this year. I want to feel that feeling I felt sitting at the base of the Mathew's Bridge when the announcement came that Jacksonville was getting a franchise, and everyone blowing their horns, getting out of their car and high fiving each other. I want to feel like it did when Anderson's kick landed a couple of rows in front of me (and not through the uprights) sending us to the playoffs for the first time. When Natrone meant business. When we beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, twice in the same season (only team to ever to that and we did it twice!!). When Marino and Kelly's careers ended. When Myles Jack wasn't down. I get teased a lot (and probably rightfully so) for my loyalty both in my life and on here (since, I've never once picked against them in the Pick 'em league, even when I knew they were going to lose). I'm ready to be rewarded for that loyalty/lol. One of my best friends is a life long suffering Cubs fan, and I remember what it was like for him when the Cubs won the World Series. I want that feeling. C'mon Trevor be the guy that can do that...please.lol
posted by jagsnumberone at 12:31 AM on December 29, 2020
First of all, is there any other broad category international sports discussion site that has as much ongoing commitment to Jaguars topics? I think we all need a pair of camo pants.
It seems like Khan is trying to figure out how to strategically manage and balance a money triangle.
Leg one is investing in building a good team that will generate interest and revenue.
Leg two is the revenue Khan gets from his London agreement. It's significant money. How does he keep that going without continuing to shortchange the fans at home? If he drafts a QB who becomes a marquee attraction and the team improves, does he need to keep going to London?
Leg three is that taxpayer funded development project at the stadium that's being proposed. Would it generate enough revenue to keep the Jags in Jacksonville for the long term? Is there an incentive for voters to approve spending the money so the franchise can become more economically competitive?
Does Khan expect to get taxpayer approval for a big project to enhance the stadium, then keep going to London twice a year? It'll be interesting to see how he walks the tightrope on all this.
posted by beaverboard at 03:22 AM on December 29, 2020
Does Khan expect to get taxpayer approval for a big project to enhance the stadium, then keep going to London twice a year?
Trevor Lawrence and Lot J's approval would both put significant pressure on Khan to stop going to London yearly at all. I'm hoping Lawrence ends the two London game gambit, which would be a humiliating thing to do to a local fan base.
I think we all need a pair of camo pants.
Camo cutoffs and off-brand Crocs.
posted by rcade at 12:20 PM on December 29, 2020
... and an ownership that tolerates absymal performance from the front office and coaches longer than any other team in the NFL.
Well, that's only because the Bengals don't have a "front office." Unless you count the Brown family's foyer.
posted by tahoemoj at 12:23 PM on December 29, 2020
But just three of those QBs led their team to the Super Bowl, and only two (Cam Newton and Eli Manning) have won a title.
Unless Eli gave one of his rings to Cam, it must be someone else?
posted by yerfatma at 02:24 PM on December 29, 2020
You know what Parcells or Belichick would do. Trade the pick to Elway for his entire 2020's competitive future and win with a Simms or Hostetler instead.
Yup. Look no farther than Indy .. and that is assuming Lawrence can be half the QB that Luck was. Might motivate fans to buy tickets for a year or 2 but much better to build the many other weaknesses first before blowing your wad on a QB that is going to take 10 to 15 huge hits per contest then need to retire without ever being given a decent chance to win.
posted by cixelsyd at 06:52 PM on December 29, 2020
Is drafting Andrew Luck supposed to be a cautionary tale? If drafting Lawrence means four 10-plus win seasons and two 8-win seasons, then leaving the team in the shape the Colts are in today I'd take it.
posted by rcade at 06:37 PM on December 30, 2020
ESPN's Jeremy Schapp has a hot take on how the worst team shouldn't get the best pick. In a dumb tweet, Chris Mortensen says the pick should be taken away from Jacksonville.
I expect we'll get a lot more newfound interest in radically changing the draft system this week now that one of the NFL's smallest markets got Lawrence instead of the Jets.