January 10, 2015

NFL Playoff Pick 'Em Contest, Divisional Round: Pick the winners of each playoff game and the spread, along with four bonus categories. This round begins at 4:35 p.m. Eastern today with Baltimore at New England, followed by Carolina at Seattle tonight, then Dallas at Green Bay and Indianapolis at Denver on Sunday.

posted by rcade to football at 09:26 AM - 24 comments

ResultCarolina by 11Baltimore by 13Indy by 16Dallas by 4
Margin of Error 8 to 149 to 1711 to 213 to 5

NerfballPro seizes the early lead, going four out of four on picks and getting two spreads within the margin of erroneousness. Two others get four out of four, and both spread nailers (hubba hubba) chose the wrong team, thus denying our contest its first three-point prognostication. Ic23b claims the early advantage in the coveted Costanza, helped by a one-game late discovery of the pick 'em post.

SpoFiteARI @ CARSBAL @ PITSCIN @ INDSDET @ DALSPointsBonusesTotal Points
NerfballProCarolina 10Baltimore Indy 13 Dallas617
GoyoucoltsCarolina 13Indy Dallas 415
tommytrump Carolina BaltimoreIndy Dallas 404
bender Indy12 4314
grum@work Carolina 10 Indy Dallas 404
Howard_TCarolina BaltimoreIndy Dallas 414
rcadeCarolina 10 Dallas 303
LionIndexCarolina Indy Dallas 303
Ufez Jones Indy Dallas 202
hincandenza Indy 111
NoMich Dallas 101
tahoemoj Dallas 101
ic23b 000

It was a stingy week for bonus points. Andrew Luck (Ind) led with 376 passing yards and five won that point, but no one had Baltimore as the top scoring team with 30 and no one predicted an interception by Antonio Cromartie (Ari), Luke Kuechly (Car), Tre Boston (Car), Terrell Suggs (Bal), Darian Stewart (Bal) or Kyle Wilbur (Dal).

SpoFitePassing YdsTop ScoreInterceptionBonuses
tommytrump 0
bender Luck 1
owlhouse 0
LionIndex 0
grum@work 0
Ufez Jones 0
ic23b 0
hincandenzaLuck 1
NoMich 0
tahoemoj 0

For the divisional round, pick these games:

Baltimore at New England (preview)

Carolina at Seattle (preview)

Dallas at Green Bay (preview)

Indianapolis at Denver (preview)

For bonus points (1 point each):

Pick the team that scores the most points this weekend.

Pick the running back who runs for the most yards.

Pick one player who gets a sack.

Pick the temperature (Fahrenheit) in Green Bay at kickoff.

posted by rcade at 09:37 AM on January 10, 2015

New England by 5

Seattle by 13

Dallas by 6

Denver by 4

Most points: Denver

Most rushing yards: C.J. Anderson (Den)

Sack: Bruce Irvin (Sea)

Temperature: 19F

posted by rcade at 10:12 AM on January 10, 2015

New England by 19

Seattle by 17

Green Bay by 12

Denver by 10

Most Points New England

Most Rushing Yards C.J. Anderson

Sack Clay Matthews

Temp 21F

posted by ic23b at 10:44 AM on January 10, 2015

New England by 12

Seattle by 16

Dallas by 7

Denver by 7

Most points: New England

Rushing: CJ Anderson

Sack: Von Miller

GB Temp: 18 (a warming trend!)

posted by LionIndex at 11:43 AM on January 10, 2015

NE by 3
Seattle by 24
Dallas by 6
Denver by 6

Most Points: NE

Rushing: CJ Anderson

Sack: Elvis Dumervil

GB Temp: 16

posted by Ufez Jones at 11:53 AM on January 10, 2015

Lots of love for C.J. Anderson. He was a beast for my fantasy football team after I got him because our waiver order favored teams with terrible records.

posted by rcade at 11:59 AM on January 10, 2015

Balmer by 5
Seattle by 9
Green Bay by 4
Denver by 12

Most points: Denver
Rushing: D Murray (DALLAS)
Sack: V Miller (DENVER)
Green Bay temperature: 264.817 Kelvin

posted by NoMich at 12:10 PM on January 10, 2015

I'll consider last week my first round bye.

New England by 10
Seattle by 14
Dallas by 3
Indy by 4

Charles Johnson, Carolina

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 12:45 PM on January 10, 2015

Note: For the temperature bonus point, the actual temperature will be rounded to the nearest decimal.

posted by rcade at 01:25 PM on January 10, 2015

New England by 5

Seattle by 26

Green Bay by 21

Denver by 14





posted by tommybiden at 02:32 PM on January 10, 2015

The goat I had intended to slaughter so I could spread the entrails for portents of success froze to death. Darn thing was frozen so solid I couldn't get at its guts. I guess I'll just ave to go on my instincts.

Baltimore at New England: Patriots' secondary defense deprives Flacco of early targets, forcing him to run around. While he throws well on the run, he will also throw some picks. Patriots' O line is healthy and ready, and NE runs the ball well. Brady is Brady. What else needs be said? New England by 17.

Carolina at Seattle: Sometime about the middle of the 3rd quarter, the announcers will say something to the effect of "Thank you, Carolina, for playing. Here are some lovely parting gifts". This one will be ugly. Seattle by 28.

Indianapolis at Denver: Will Manning's arm fall off in the 4th quarter? Will Colts' defense be able to stop the newly-created (well sort of recently discovered) Denver running game? The answer is No and No. Manning's arm is a bionic replacement, and Indy's defense is too small and light to stop a hard running attack. Denver by 12.

Dallas at Green Bay: It won't quite be an ice bowl, but it won't be a trip to the tropics either. Dallas will try to run the ball, and if they succeed, Packers will be hard put to keep up. The thing is, Cowboys might not be able to run. Depending on Tony Romo to be able to throw consistently well is like depending on Scarlett Johansson to be sharing your pillow every morning. Green Bay should be able to dictate what it wants to do on offense. Packers by 9.

Most points: This is a tougher call than it looks. Denver and NE could run up the score, but with the combination of a home crowd, a vicious defense, and a pretty solid attack, Seattle will light it up. My choice is Seattle.

Running Back Yardage: There are 4 teams with backs who could win this. I will eliminate 2 of them, New England (Blount) and Dallas (Murray), one by virtue of their style and the other because they won't be able to run successfully. That brings us to Anderson from Denver and Seattle's Marshawn Lynch. While the Lynch mob will excel, Lynch will not be the weapon upon which Seattle depends. With Manning's apparent arm difficulties and Colts' weakness against the run, the pick is clear. Anderson.

Who will get a sack: There will be many, and there might be a few who, after the game, pick up a sack at the grocery store for their "let's go home and grieve" party. My pick is a guy with the power and speed to break through and run down the QB. He might even get the double with a sack and an interception. My pick, from New England, Jamie Collins.

Now for the Green Bay weather: The temperature at game time will be 18 degrees Fahrenheit. Can I get double points for converting it to Celsius? Let's go with -8C or 18F.

posted by Howard_T at 02:46 PM on January 10, 2015

Howard, that was awesome. You reminded me of an old "Sons of Sam Horn" forum poster named Jose Melendez who'd write these hilarious "Keys to the Game" posts before every Sox game. :)

New England over Baltimore by 17
Seattle over Carolina by 20
Packers over Dallas by 10
Indianapolis over Denver by 10

New England with the most team points.
Marshawn Lynch, at home, in the playoffs? Yup, most rushing yards
Bruce Irvin of Seattle gets a sack this weekend
16 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff in Green Bay.

I assume temperature is based on the listed Lambeau field temperature at kickoff, and the sack will be awarded even if it's shared (i.e., if a named player gets half a sack)?

posted by hincandenza at 04:35 PM on January 10, 2015

Also, we appreciate you doing this, but for the next week can we get at least a 1 day lead time? 4 of the top 6 scorers from last week didn't even get a pick in on time this week.

posted by hincandenza at 04:37 PM on January 10, 2015

I'm late; reserve duty sucks sometimes. I'm making my picks after the Bal-Pitt game has kicked off, and I don't know what all has happened, so if anything I put on here doesn't qualify feel free to take the point off.

Baltimore by 3

Seattle by 14

Green Bay by 3

Denver by 4

Most points: Seattle

Most rush yards: Marshawn Lynch

Sack: Von Miller

GB Temp: 20F

posted by NerfballPro at 06:17 PM on January 10, 2015

Dammit. Seattle by 17 Indy by 3 Green Bay by 6 Points: Green Bay Rushing yards: Murray Sack: Dumerville Kickoff is 12 degrees

posted by tahoemoj at 08:42 PM on January 10, 2015

Damn it. Way too late to get in for the second round, but I'll do it anyways.

Dallas by 3

Denver by 11

Most points: Dallas

Most rush yards: Murray (Dallas)

Sack: V. Miller (Denver)

GB Temp: 17F

posted by grum@work at 10:41 PM on January 10, 2015

Also, we appreciate you doing this, but for the next week can we get at least a 1 day lead time?

That's the plan. It was the plan this week too, but the server was crashing all day. The post should be up Friday mornings.

posted by rcade at 09:09 AM on January 11, 2015

Did I have a post that was deleted, or did I just not enter it properly? I definitely came here yesterday to make picks, but they are not here. I believe they were:

Baltimore by 3
Seattle by 13
Green Bay by 4
Denver by 17
Marshawn Lynch
DeMarcus Ware

posted by bender at 10:53 AM on January 11, 2015

My logs don't show any comment deletions yesterday.

posted by rcade at 11:10 AM on January 11, 2015

Yeah, I didn't figure that was the case. I don't know what happened, though. It definitely went to the next screen--maybe I hit preview instead of post.

posted by bender at 11:33 AM on January 11, 2015

The temperature at kickoff in Lambeau Field was 24 degrees Fahrenhut-hut-hut.

posted by rcade at 04:35 PM on January 11, 2015

Curious where you found that- was looking earlier and couldn't find game time temp.

In any case, if this Indy lead holds (but they don't exceed 35 points) I had a hell of a SpoFi pick weekend! :)

posted by hincandenza at 06:46 PM on January 11, 2015

I got the temperature by asking Google, "what is the temperature at Lambeau Field?"

posted by rcade at 09:07 PM on January 11, 2015

Ah, I'd not been able to find one that gave the historical value at kickoff instead of at the current time.

posted by hincandenza at 05:38 AM on January 13, 2015

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