11/05/24
April 18, 2010
NFL Scouts: Tim Tebow's a Third Rounder: In a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel survey of 21 NFL scouts and personnel executives on Tim Tebow, the consensus on the Heisman Trophy winner is that he's a third-round pick. "You take away the leadership and all that manufactured [expletive], I don't think he has any quarterback skills and he's not a good enough athlete to play another position," an NFC executive told the paper.
The consensus does not determine when he will be drafted. The team that values him the highest remaining player on the board when it's their turn determines when he will be drafted.
"I think he's a first-rounder," an AFC personnel man insisted.
It only takes one team to think this, and he will be a first-rounder. (And the article says that two surveyed said he was a first rounder).
It's the game theory problem with auctions. The winner of an auction tends to pay too much, and overpay, and then lose money.
posted by Aardhart at 09:11 PM on April 18, 2010
Can he punt? He could be the next Tom Tupa.
I still think he might make an OK safety. (Is he that much slower than Lynch was?)
In which case he could be the next Rex Kern.
posted by beaverboard at 09:20 PM on April 18, 2010
I wish he was a safety for the Eagles. I would love for Dallas to be able to burn his ass twice a year. The guy is an awesome competitor, but not sure where he will fit in. Tebow is still convinced that he is going to be a QB.
posted by sgtcookzane at 10:20 PM on April 18, 2010
The consensus does not determine when he will be drafted.
NFL executives are afraid of looking bad by defying conventional wisdom. It's why Belichick was hammered for going for it against Indy even though the odds were counterintuitively in his favor. So if the book on Tebow is that he's a third rounder, a lot of execs won't be willing to take him higher for fear of embarrassment.
I'd like to see the Jags take him in the first round. He'd sell another 5,000 season tickets and has a decent shot of being a starter quarterback. It's not like any first-round quarterback is a sure thing.
posted by rcade at 06:57 AM on April 19, 2010
The consensus does not determine when he will be drafted. The team that values him the highest remaining player on the board when it's their turn determines when he will be drafted.
Unless the team thinks he will still be there during their next pick. He'd sell another 5,000 season tickets and has a decent shot of being a starter quarterback. It's not like any first-round quarterback is a sure thing.
I think the Jags might give him a chance. Do you think he could be a good QB in the NFL? I remember I was pretty convinced that Charlie Ward could be a good QB in the NFL. Alas, the NFL disagreed (or were scared by the chance he would choose the NBA) and he wasn't even drafted.
posted by bperk at 07:13 AM on April 19, 2010
In which case he could be the next Rex Kern.
Or the next Nolan Cromwell. That was a pretty good conversion to safety.
posted by mjkredliner at 10:19 AM on April 19, 2010
"I think he's a first-rounder," an AFC personnel man insisted.
Or the personnel man was talking him up in hopes of adding weight so another team takes him earlier than the 3rd and (in the personnel guy's mind) wasting a pick and/or letting another player fall a tad.
posted by billsaysthis at 11:45 AM on April 19, 2010
Or...that AFC personnel man is Al Davis...
posted by MeatSaber at 12:50 PM on April 19, 2010
"I think he's a first-rounder," an AFC personnel man insisted.
Why am I filled with dread that it was a Buffalo Bills executive talking?
posted by grum@work at 12:55 PM on April 19, 2010
Or the next Nolan Cromwell.
LOVED Nolan Cromwell!
Why am I filled with dread that it was a Buffalo Bills executive talking?
Lol! I was thinking the same thing. It's a safe bet the "AFC personnel man" was either from the Bills or Raiders.
posted by dyams at 05:18 PM on April 19, 2010
rcade, I hope for his sake, he isn't any higher than a 3rd rounder. He isn't ready to step in right away and that is what you expect from a higher draft pick. He needs some time to fix some throwing motion issues and learn the game for a couple of years. If he does that, gets some experience, I think he could become a Tony Romo type QB in the league.
If he doesn't, he runs the risk of too many other QBs who were going to be "saviors" and were just eaten alive.
posted by jc at 02:59 PM on April 20, 2010
Well I have never seen anything that resembles pro passing skills from him so I am not surprised. He is a good athlete and leader but is seriously lacking in the throwing skills required to really be top pro QB pick.
posted by Atheist at 04:15 PM on April 20, 2010
Tim Tebow has good decisionmaking skills on the field. That is such a huge asset that it has to be easier to teach him to change his throwing than teach some other QBs better field vision.
posted by bperk at 04:45 PM on April 20, 2010
No way. You can't teach someone to throw harder or farther. You can improve technique, you can teach someone how to read a defense. You can teach play calling. You can't teach arm strength. A guy can throw it far, or he can't.
I mean, that's why most even highly touted QBs spend a few years on the pines - they're learning how to read the defenses, run plays, and make good decisions with the ball.
It's like basketball. You can't teach fast, and you can't teach tall.
Or perhaps, in a less absolute fashion - it is terribly hard to change the way someone can run and throw. There are likely exceptions, but would you play those odds? Would you bet a third round pick on being able to teach Tebow to throw farther, harder and with more accuracy? I don't like those odds.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 05:41 PM on April 20, 2010
"I think he's a first-rounder," an AFC personnel man insisted.
I will be absolutely delighted if one of the 31 NFL teams I don't follow takes Tebow in the first round.
Preferably the Bills.
posted by Mr Bismarck at 07:48 PM on April 20, 2010
No way. You can't teach someone to throw harder or farther. You can improve technique, you can teach someone how to read a defense. You can teach play calling. You can't teach arm strength. A guy can throw it far, or he can't.
How often do QBs get to really air it out anyway? Not very often. It is more important to have accuracy and timing than to have the ability to throw 70 yards downfield. Pennington can't throw past about 10 yards and he has been a serviceable NFL QB. Steve Young didn't have great arm strength either and that worked out okay. Arm strength is overrated. There are so many NFL busts (see Jamarcus Russell) with all the physical tools that were not able to learn all that other stuff.
posted by bperk at 06:05 AM on April 21, 2010
There are so many NFL busts (see Jamarcus Russell) with all the physical tools that were not able to learn all that other stuff.
Excellent point.
posted by dyams at 07:58 AM on April 21, 2010
And in other news there are 200+ plus other players who will also be drafted.