12/21/24
August 30, 2006
How good can it get? : SI's Peter King opines on the best-case scenario for all 32 NFL teams in the upcoming season. The PowerPoint approach, conclusions rather than analysis, but still worth a quick gander.
posted by lil_brown_bat to football at 01:38 PM - 25 comments
Oh, Peter King. I wish you were better. (He's got Houston beating the Colts? I know this is all best-case-scenario stuff, but for the love of Tom Landry, Houston couldn't beat a YMCA pickup flag football team from Indianapolis at this point.)
posted by chicobangs at 02:48 PM on August 30, 2006
Like you said, not very scientific, but an interesting read. I do this at the beginning of every season for my own team anyway, but it is nice to see someone else come up with a similar result. ;)
posted by scully at 02:49 PM on August 30, 2006
and it doesn't even match. He's got Philly beating Houston week one for Philly, but if you look at Houston's he's got them beating Philly. I looked at his for the SB champions, who are basically the same team as last year, and it's either +1's or -1's. I then look at the Pats, and they have +3's and +4's. Now how did I know that was the case before I even clicked the link :-)
posted by bdaddy at 03:00 PM on August 30, 2006
He's got Philly beating Houston week one for Philly, but if you look at Houston's he's got them beating Philly. Because it is best-case scenario for every team. Reading comprehension ahoy! :)
posted by tieguy at 03:04 PM on August 30, 2006
(Decided to erase my comment..)
posted by blarp at 03:43 PM on August 30, 2006
"Frankly, there should be about 6 teams whose "best case" is 16-0" That's just as unrealistic as this article is. Frankly since 16-0 has never been done and only once has an NFL team gone undefeated, the thought that 6 teams have a chance is complete fantasy. The odds are overwhelming that no team does it. The article does point out some realistic best case scenarios. Of course the best case scenario rarely happens. The problem with this kind of analysis is that although it contemplates the best case scenarios for the teams it totally disregards the worse case scenarios. Like when a great team suffers critical injurys and plays a crappy team that has its best game, gets a bunch of bad calls that go their way, some easy turnovers etc and all bets go out the window. Or like in the case where the best case scenario for Cincinati happens. They get Pittsburgh at home in the playoffs, the first play from scrimmage Palmer throws a huge touchdown pass and then just when everything looks great....the worse case scenario happens. Seldom do the NFL standings at the end of the tenth week look like people thought they would at the beginning of the season. The thing I think is realistic about the article is that it is fairly accurate about the best case scenario for each team's finishing record. Most teams will not achieve the record indicated as their best case scenario. I doubt more than one or two will surpass it, so in that respect the final numbers may prove out. Although I doubt the game by game analysis will look anywhere near correct.
posted by Atheist at 03:43 PM on August 30, 2006
Although I doubt the game by game analysis will look anywhere near correct. I personally believe that its stupid ot even try to comtemplate each teams future, when not even one snap has been taken yet. This guy will probably be right with some of his guesstimates, but a large part of this is common sense, and luck.
posted by Kendall at 04:07 PM on August 30, 2006
The point is that there are teams that are going to go out all 16 weeks and have a better than average chance to win. Indy's "best case" scenario last year was 16-0 before the unfortunate Dungy incedent, and I don't see why it couldn't be again. The fact that it has been done so rarely is simply a testament to how flawed it is to talk about "best case" scenarios. Really, this is just a cop-out so King doesn't have to explain why he decided to make so many homers happy. For instance, the Bengals "best case scenario" might involve the Steelers team being eaten by Cannibals week 2. The Steelers "best case scenario" might involve Carson missing half of the season after re-injuring his knee. How fanciful is too fanciful for a "best case" scenario? Who cares, so long as King doesn't get angry e-mails for saying the Cards will be lucky to win two games. If Houston can beat Philly in their "best case" why is it written in stone that Indy has to lose one, even if everything goes perfect for them...
posted by LostInDaJungle at 04:08 PM on August 30, 2006
I think another point to mention is that looking at each teams best case is basically pointless. If you look at all of your +1's as potential close losses instead of close wins then the Colts could go 6-10 while the Pats go 7-9. Obviously it would be safe to say that half the teams in the NFL won't achieve their best case scenario. I personally would rather debate realistic predictions or playoff possibilities rather than a sort of nonsensical scenario like this.
posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 04:12 PM on August 30, 2006
It's pre-season for Peter King too. This sort of reminds me of the article the middle of last season when they were trying to determine the first 32 picks in the 2006 draft. Hard to defend, hard to argue against and really just King's best guess. Good Job, Peter. Thanks for the effort. Of the SI guys I trust Dr. Z's opinions a lot more.
posted by Termite at 04:13 PM on August 30, 2006
Every time I see Dr. Z, all I can think of is: "The Bills will beat the Cowboys/Giants/Redskins." King still loves those Patriots, huh?
posted by SummersEve at 04:22 PM on August 30, 2006
Every time I see Dr. Z, all I can think of is: "The Bills will beat the Cowboys/Giants/Redskins." *sobs* It could of happened!
posted by grum@work at 04:26 PM on August 30, 2006
When you really think about it, the title of the article should be the "realistic" best case scenario. Because the best case scenario for every team has them winning every game. For the Colts it may just be Peyton Manning and the rest of the team firing on all cylinders and defeating every opponent. For the New Orleans Saints the best case scenario may be a wild and unforseeable chain of events that has them winning every game. You know like everytime their opponents have the ball a freak hurricaine style cloud burst happens, or they never face a starting QB because every week their opponents QB is out due to injury, the starting running back misses the bus, the defense goes blind due to reflection of the Saints helmets, or a combination of everything remotely possible. As far and the unfortunate Dungy incident ruining the Colts unbeaten season. BULL. Peyton choked when he had a chance to win the game against San Diego even after playing terribly all game, and of course the choke against Pittsburgh in the Playoffs. The death of Dungy's son was unfortunate and terrible, but hardly the main cause of the Colts demise. As a matter of fact some teams would have become stronger after an event like that. The Colts just crumbled under the pressure of expectation in the late part of the season.
posted by Atheist at 04:28 PM on August 30, 2006
Every time I see Dr. Z, all I can think of is: "The Bills will beat the Cowboys/Giants/Redskins." That is part of what I like about Dr. Z. He is one of the most informed football writers working today and, yet, he very openly goes with his heart over his head sometimes. He's like that with the Jets sometimes, too.
posted by Joey Michaels at 04:38 PM on August 30, 2006
He has the Bears at a realistic 14-2! Too bad games aren't won on paper. While an interesting article, this carries as much water as a collinder.
posted by timdawg at 05:51 PM on August 30, 2006
I find it hard to take him seriously. He has the Lions as a team that could go 9-7. This is the same team that has a new coach with his only experience being coaching a defensive line. This is also the same team who's number one offense has scored one touchdown in three preseason games. Not to mention he has them winning at Lambeau.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 07:42 PM on August 30, 2006
Best case scenario? T.O. 6 recs 176 yrds and 2 TD's his first game back at the Linc. Realistic scenario T.O. escapes with his fucking head still attached to his body. Then avoids batteries and felony assault while he sprints from the stadium under a presidential gaurd. 2 recs/ 18 yrds If he plays at all. Philly sacks Bledsoe 7 times.
posted by Bishop at 08:59 PM on August 30, 2006
I find it hard to take him seriously. He has the Lions as a team that could go 9-7. This is the same team that has a new coach with his only experience being coaching a defensive line. This is not entirely accurate. Marinelli has been a coach at the NCAA Division One or NFL level since 1976. He has coached special teams, defensive line, and offensive lines. On three seperate occasions, twice in college, at major Division One programs, and once in the NFL, for the last 4 seasons been the Assistant Head Coach. I am not a Lions fan and have no axe to grind, just trying to provide the facts.
posted by tommybiden at 09:43 PM on August 30, 2006
Frankly, there should be about 6 teams whose "best case" is 16-0. Isn't that the best case scenario for all 32 teams?
posted by BullpenPro at 11:32 PM on August 30, 2006
BPP, I thought the same thing, but figured it was too obvious. You know, like the true-false questions in Cranium.
posted by SummersEve at 04:06 AM on August 31, 2006
just trying to provide the facts. What I should have said is that Marinelli has had no head coaching or coordinator expirience what so ever, which makes him perfect for another Millen disaster.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:07 AM on August 31, 2006
Off topic, but the SI link led me to this, which made me very, very happy.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 08:29 AM on August 31, 2006
I guess this is one way to do an NFL preview. A pretty chart with no actual analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the team.
posted by bperk at 09:48 AM on August 31, 2006
That has always been King's modus operandi... lotsa fluff, no stuff.
posted by mjkredliner at 10:03 AM on August 31, 2006
New Orleans isn't a sure win for the Bengals, but Baltimore is? Peter King, like most sports journalists, watches maybe two teams all year, and just throws darts for the other 30. Can't blame him, but since this is all just opinion, it's about as smart as SI predicting the entire NFC East would go 9-7. Frankly, there should be about 6 teams whose "best case" is 16-0.