11/05/24
January 30, 2015
NFL Playoff Pick 'Em Contest, Super Bowl 0x31 Round: The final round of SportsFilter's annual NFL playoffs prediction contest is here. Pick the winner of the game, the spread and 10 bonus categories. Nerfballpro leads by two points and is making a bid to go wire to wire.
I'm going to pick fast so I don't have to factor in other people's picks in my strategery.
Seattle by 6 points
Most passing yards: Tom Brady
Most rushing yards: Marshawn Lynch
Most receiving yards: Rob Gronkowski
First touchdown: Doug Baldwin
Player with a sack: Michael Bennett
Player with an interception: Richard Sherman
Total score: 54
First quarter: 9
Second quarter: 30
Third quarter: 33
posted by rcade at 06:16 PM on January 30, 2015
Seattle by 16 points
Most passing yards: Wilson
Most rushing yards: Wilson
Most receiving yards: Willson
First touchdown: Lynch
Player with a sack: Wilfork
Player with an interception: Sherman
Total score: 52
First quarter: 13
Second quarter: 30
Third quarter: 44
posted by tommybiden at 07:09 PM on January 30, 2015
Seattle by: 10
Most Passing yds: Russell Wilson
Most Rushing yds: Marshawn Lynch
Most Receiving yds: Jermaine Kearse
First TD: Brandon LaFell
Player with a sack: Cliff Avril
Player with interception: Kam Chancellor
Total Score: 58
1st Quarter: 17
2nd Quarter: 31
3rd Quarter: 41
posted by ic23b at 08:36 PM on January 30, 2015
Seattle by 5 points
Most passing yards: Tom Brady
Most rushing yards: Marshawn Lynch
Most receiving yards: Brandon LaFell
First touchdown: Rob Gronkowski
Player with a sack: Michael Bennett
Player with an interception: Darrelle Revis
Total score: 47
First quarter: 10
Second quarter: 23
Third quarter: 30
posted by bender at 10:35 PM on January 30, 2015
Seattle by 3
Most passing yards: Brady
Most rushing yards: Lynch
Most receiving yards: Gronkowski
First touchdown: Lynch
Player with a sack: Avril
Player with an interception: Sherman
Total score: 43
First quarter: 10
Second quarter: 30
Third quarter: 37
posted by grum@work at 01:48 AM on January 31, 2015
New England by 7Most Passing Yards: BradyMost rushing Yards: Lynch Most Receiving Yards: GronkowskiFirst Touchdown: GronkowskiSack: WilforkInterception: RevisTotal Score: 521st Quarter: 17Halftime: 313rd Quarter: 45
posted by NerfballPro at 01:28 PM on January 31, 2015
NE by 10
Passing Yards: Brady
Rushing Yards: Blount
Receiving Yards: Gronk
First TD: Blount
Sack: Ninkovich
INT: Sherman
Total Score: 42 (life, the universe & everything)
Q1: 10
Half: 23
Q3: 33
posted by Ufez Jones at 03:48 PM on January 31, 2015
Seattle by 3
Most Passing Yards: Brady
Most rushing Yards: Lynch
Most Receiving Yards: Gronkowski
First Touchdown: R. Wilson
Sack: Avril
Interception: McCourty
Total Score: 45
1st Quarter: 7
Halftime: 21
3rd Quarter: 31
posted by NoMich at 04:28 PM on January 31, 2015
Is anyone picking a winner against your rooting interest? I predicted a Seattle victory but I'd like to see Belichick and Brady hoist the Lombardi one more time. I don't know if we'll get another chance to see them do it.
posted by rcade at 10:29 PM on January 31, 2015
I considered it, but decided to pretty much just roll the dice with the Patriots in real life and here. I think the Patriots winning would be much nicer to see, as it's been a decade since they won (and those last two appearances/losses were so bitter to swallow) while Seattle won last year. I'd be quite content if Brady and Belichick win this year, and Wilson & Co. rattle off a SB win next year, in similar fashion to the start of Brady's career...
Here's my prediction:
New England by 5
Most Passing Yards: Brady
Most Rushing Yards: Blount
First Touchdown: Gronkowski
Sack: Ninkovich
Interception: Revis
1st Quarter: 10 (NE 7 - SEA 3)
2nd Quarter: 27 (NE 14 - SEA 13)
3rd Quarter: 43 (NE 28 - SEA 16)
Total score: 57 (NE 31- SEA 26)
I'm a touch concerned the points-per-quarter as you have it is going to be lopsided in scoring, since each quarter pick depends on not being too far off in the previous quarter(s)- and the 3rd quarter and Total pick are so large as to cover nearly all reasonable scores we'd see during the game.
Just a late suggestion, but if we turned the existing picks into four separate quarterly values, then people wouldn't have to repick but you could have smaller spreads for each quarter, scored independently. For example, current leader NerfballPro picked 17, 31, 45, 52; from this we could derive his quarterly picks as 17, +14, +14, +7, and treat them like four separate spread picks, with more narrow spreads by game's end.
I personally think this wouldn't be too much of an imposition on existing picks, and might play a little fairer in the scoring. Like I said, just a suggestion.
posted by hincandenza at 04:00 AM on February 01, 2015
Is anyone picking a winner against your rooting interest?
To be honest, I'm not all that interested in this year's Game. Seattle won it last year and I'm just flat out sick of seeing the Patriots on my TV, but I'll peep in here and there just to see how well my picks turn out. However, when The Great British Baking Show is on at 8:00 tonight, you bet your life I'll be tuned in.
posted by NoMich at 08:22 AM on February 01, 2015
I like the idea of scoring the quarters the way Hincandenza suggests, except that there should be an extra bonus point for picking the total score within the .3 spread rule.
If there are no objections I'll do it that way.
posted by rcade at 11:09 AM on February 01, 2015
New England by 6
Most passing yards: Tom Brady
Most rushing yards: Marshawn Lynch
Most receiving yards: Edelman
First touchdown: Wilson
Player with a sack: Michael Bennett
Player with an interception: Sherman
Total score: 48
First quarter: 10
Second quarter: 20
Third quarter: 41
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 12:53 PM on February 01, 2015
Just in case rcade fire officially changes the quarters by score rule:
1st Quarter: 7 (SEA 7 - NE 0)
2nd Quarter: 21 (NE 14 - SEA 7)
3rd Quarter: 31 (SEA 17 - NE 14)
4th Quarter: 45 (SEA 24 - NE 21)
Good gravy, that sounds like a boring game. Sorry y'all!
posted by NoMich at 01:07 PM on February 01, 2015
Actually, that sounds like a pretty exciting game. At no point is any team more than 7 points ahead at the beginning/end of a quarter.
posted by grum@work at 02:10 PM on February 01, 2015
NoMich, I don't think you need to do anything extra or special. Sorry, the parenthetical notes on what I thought the exact score would be was just for fun, plus if the game turns out anything like my prediction I'll look like some kind of football magician. :)
posted by hincandenza at 03:06 PM on February 01, 2015
hincandenza's suggestion sounds good to me if you want to do it that way
posted by NerfballPro at 03:13 PM on February 01, 2015
I've waited long enough. It's time to show my incredible ignorance once again.
There's no way I could pick otherwise. New England by 6.
Since Wilson wants to be a running back, the most passing yards belong to Brady.
Patriots' offensive line proves a point. LeGarrett Blount piles up the most rushing yards.
LaFell and Gronkowski take defenders deep, and this gives th most receiving yards to Edelman.
...and as part of his top yardage total, the first TD belongs to Edelman.
There will be more than one sack, but one will be made by Jamie Collins.
NE finds a way to keep McCourty fresh by sneaking his twin brother into the game. McCourty gets an INT.
Final score is Patriots 30, Seattle 24, for a total of 54.
Total after Q1 is 7.
Total after Q2 (halftime) is 17.
Total after Q3 is 34.
posted by Howard_T at 03:19 PM on February 01, 2015
Whoops- my third quarter pick should be 44, not 43 (predicting 17 points in the 3rd). Bad math there. :)
posted by hincandenza at 04:30 PM on February 01, 2015
NerfballPro's lead drops from four to two, as Hincandenza narrows the gap and LionIndex climbs to third, both with 5 points for the week. NoMich tosses away a chance for the Costanza with the week's best score of 7 points and is now tied for fourth. Despite an 11-point margin of error, no one gets a point for picking the spread in the AFC Championship Game. That's as deflating as--, no, I can't do it.
Nine players had New England with the most points (45), five had Tom Brady as the top passer (226 yards), nine predicted Marshawn Lynch as top rusher (157) and no one guessed Doug Baldwin as top receiver (106).
For the Super Bowl, pick the winner of the game and the spread.
For bonus points (1 point each):
Pick the quarterback who passes for the most yards.
Pick the player who runs for the most yards.
Pick the player who has the most receiving yards.
Pick the player who scores the first touchdown.
Pick a player who will get a sack or partial sack (no points for picking "none").
Pick a player who will get an interception (ditto)
Pick the total score in the game (same spread rules as the game)
Pick the total score after the first quarter (ditto)
Pick the total score after the second quarter (ditto)
Pick the total score after the third quarter (ditto)