11/23/24
April 12, 2007
Hernandez outshines Dice-K at Fenway : Fenway Park was the place to be, and not just because of the first matchup in the major leagues between Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ichiro Suzuki.
Sickest stat of the day for Felix -- 17 ground balls against 4 fly balls. If he can keep up a 4:1 (or better) fly ball to ground ball ratio, he will continue to dominate. I think Brandon Webb finished right around 4:1 last year, with Derek Lowe maybe slightly higher. Combine that with Felix's power stuff and strikeout potential and watch out.
posted by holden at 09:58 AM on April 12, 2007
I was watching this game and maaaaaaaaaaaaaan, this kid is the real deal and watching him pitch is pure art.
posted by BornIcon at 10:09 AM on April 12, 2007
WHo are you talking about Born? Dice-K or Hernandez? It is hard to tell b/c everyone says the same stuff about Dice-K. I hope the sarcasm is coming through.
posted by brainofdtrain at 10:13 AM on April 12, 2007
Huh? It's hard to say what Dice-K's stuff looks like. It looked really good against KC and just ok against Seattle. I'm not sure a Quality Start is something to look down on. As for Hernandez, wow. I spent most the game kicking myself for not drafting him early. I'd given up after about 2 innings; all that was left to do was root for a hit. And the Sox managed one. I can't think of someone who throws as hard with such an easy motion. He looks just as good as all the hype last year. And the Sox lineup looks pretty mediocre, especially 6-9. 3-5 has the potential to be as good as any team, but the rest . . . I don't know.
posted by yerfatma at 10:40 AM on April 12, 2007
I was talking about Sandy Koufax~ I hope the sarcasm is coming through My sentiments exactly
posted by BornIcon at 10:49 AM on April 12, 2007
It's hard to say what Dice-K's stuff looks like. That's my point yerfatma. Many (not all) were already anointing him as God's gift to baseball. He might be actually, but hopefully we'll wait and see if he can beat someone other than the royals (man it hurts to admit how bad my team sucks). I hope the sarcasm is better understood now.
posted by brainofdtrain at 11:30 AM on April 12, 2007
While Dice-K appears to have some nasty stuff, I'll withhold my opinion until he's been around the league a couple of times. The Mariners teed off on a few of his offerings, and the Green Monster kept them from being long homers. Hernandez, on the other hand, seems to really be growing and coming into his own. His body and fitness make him look like much more of an athlete than he appeared last season. But a guy with upper-90s stuff running all over the place is going to make a lot of opposing hitters look foolish this year. As for the Red Sox offense, Manny and Papi notwithstanding, they are fairly average. If Drew remains on the field, he'll deliver, but that infield is kind of weak.
posted by dyams at 01:16 PM on April 12, 2007
Hernandez, on the other hand, seems to really be growing and coming into his own. His body and fitness make him look like much more of an athlete than he appeared last season From what I understand, over the off season Hernandez dropped about 20lbs and came into spring training in magnificent shape. That can help him with his stamina and therefore, help the bullpen since he'll last more than 6 innings. Take for example his 1 hit shutout last night against the Red Sox. Good for him~ I thought he was gonna get the elusive perfect game until damn JD Drew busted out the lumber and hit that BS single in the 8th. Oh well!
posted by BornIcon at 01:20 PM on April 12, 2007
That would have been the ultra-elusive 2 walk perfect game at that point.
posted by yerfatma at 01:42 PM on April 12, 2007
It would've still been a perfect game~
posted by BornIcon at 01:51 PM on April 12, 2007
While Dice-K appears to have some nasty stuff, I'll withhold my opinion until he's been around the league a couple of times I agree, dyams, but shouldn't the same be said about Hernandez? If I'm not mistaken, he was inconsistent last season, with flashes of brilliance thrown in. If last night's start is the worst one Matsuzaka makes this year, he will have done very well indeed. Hernandez was just plain SICK. I saw one curve ball (I think in Drew's first at bat) that appeared to start in the vicinity of Drew's forehead, ended up at ankle level, and still managed to be in the strike zone as it crossed the plate. The scary thing is that one of the Boston Globe writers (Shaughnessy, I think) this morning pointed out how few pitchers who excel at the age of 20 or 21 go on to have long careers. I hope Hernandez is one of the exceptions to the rule.
posted by Howard_T at 02:12 PM on April 12, 2007
I saw one curve ball (I think in Drew's first at bat) that appeared to start in the vicinity of Drew's forehead, ended up at ankle level, and still managed to be in the strike zone as it crossed the plate. It was almost like his stuff was so good that the umpire didn't know what he was seeing. I watched pretty much the entire game and I couldn't really get a hold of the ump's strike zone. Usually after a few innings, you kind of get an idea of what the strike zone will be. It seemed like several of the Boston batters didn't agree with calls at times, also. His stuff was nasty. I hope El Carteluo can keep it up this year. If he can, and if a few other players step up, the M's may actually compete for the division.
posted by chamo at 02:43 PM on April 12, 2007
From your lips to God's ears, Chamo.
posted by THX-1138 at 03:30 PM on April 12, 2007
few pitchers who excel at the age of 20 or 21 go on to have long careers I wonder how accurate that is. Certainly, more pitchers who are in the league at 18/ 19 as starters go on to become aces than those that aren't. Can you link the article? I'm too lazy to look for it, but it sounds logically flawed.
posted by yerfatma at 03:38 PM on April 12, 2007
Fatty, I was mistaken. It was Bob Ryan's article here. Chamo, I saw only one or two questionable calls that went against BoSox. One in particular was a low, inside pitch to Varitek. Matsuzaka had the same location called a ball on a couple of pitches. All told, the plate blue did a good job. There are bound to be a few missed when you call over 200 pitches in a game.
posted by Howard_T at 04:41 PM on April 12, 2007
Felix certainly is a different breed of cat. And I drafted him in the 10th round!
posted by ajaffe at 04:44 PM on April 12, 2007
few pitchers who have reached the big leagues before they turn 21 ever go on to have long, successful major league careers That cannot be right. Well, it could, but I doubt it. Versus the % of all pitchers who make it to the majors, I would think kids so good they make it at 20 would have a better shot at a long career. "Successful" is too undefined to disagree with. I don't know if that info could be gleaned from the Lehman database easily, but I doubt Bob Ryan (much as I like him) tried.
posted by yerfatma at 04:51 PM on April 12, 2007
I don't know if that info could be gleaned from the Lehman database easily, Why is everyone looking at me? Good career: minimum 10 seasons and ERA+ > 105 Here are the following pitchers who pitched before the age of 21 AND had good careers: (minimum 90IP during that under-21 year and debuted after 1899) Chief Bender Bert Blyleven Don Drysdale Bob Feller Terry Forster Dwight Gooden Waite Hoyt Catfish Hunter Walter Johnson Vern Law Hal Newhouser Jim Palmer Milt Pappas Camilo Pascual Herb Pennock Red Ruffing Babe Ruth (but switched to become a hitter) Bret Saberhagen Curt Simmons Joe Wood (but switched to become a hitter) Here is a list of pitchers who I'd consider "borderline" as having good careers: (the ERA+ might be a tad below 105, but had all-star appearances or MVP/Cy Young votes) Johnny Antonelli Ralph Branca Joe Coleman Larry Dierker Dick Ellsworth Earl Hamilton Gary Nolan Juan Pizarro Here are the list of pitchers who pitched before the age of 21 and did not have good careers: Steve Avery Bill Bailey Jack Bentley Dennis Blair Dave Boswell Jack Bracken Rube Bressler Jim Brillheart Dick Brodowski Wally Bunker Bobby Burke Virgil Cheeves David Clyde Snipe Conley Ed Correa Joe Engel Don Gullett Roy Hitt Billy Hoeft Art Houtteman Tom Knowlson Walt Masterson Mike McCormick Denny McLain Chet Nichols Erv Palica Pedro Ramos Ray Sadecki Carl Scheib Pete Schneider Frank Shellenback Jim St.Vrain Chuck Stobbs Jerry Walker Jim Waugh Lefty Weinert
posted by grum@work at 10:49 PM on April 12, 2007
I can't think of too many people who would say Doc Gooden had a good career. I would wager he and Fidrych were the curly heads in Ryan's mind when he wrote the article (even though Fidrych was 21 even when he debuted). A writer projecting a short career for a young pitcher who just totally owned your home team in a brilliant performance wreaks of the grapes of wicked sour wrath. (Awesome post, grum. Thanks for reminding me of Ray Sadecki.) It would've still been a perfect game~ Mets fans should be forgiven for forgetting the subtle differences between no-hitters and perfect games. They don't see much of those.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 11:58 PM on April 12, 2007
But even on the bad list, I'd take Steve Avery and Denny McLain on my team. And don't forget that Don Gullet's on his way to the Hall of Fame. Have you seen him lurking outside, TCS?
posted by yerfatma at 05:36 AM on April 13, 2007
Mets fans should be forgiven for forgetting the subtle differences between no-hitters and perfect games. They don't see much of those. That's a good one. Let me guess, your a Yankees fan? Am I right?
posted by BornIcon at 07:17 AM on April 13, 2007
Grum, thanks for doing the heavy lifting. Have you considered e-mailing it to Bob Ryan? I'm not sure if he has a pet intern at the Globe, but he surely could have used a bit more research. I fully agree with Crafty's assessment of the sugar content of Mr. Ryan's grapes.
posted by Howard_T at 08:38 AM on April 13, 2007
TCS, That may be true of mets fans (and it certainly is of royals fans), but i doubt you'll see more than the Mets fans will this year!
posted by brainofdtrain at 09:57 AM on April 13, 2007
A writer projecting a short career for a young pitcher who just totally owned your home team in a brilliant performance wreaks of the grapes of wicked sour wrath. I don't think this is really fair. Did you read the column? Most of Ryan's column is devoted to praising Felix' skills. Sure, he was off on the number of very young major league pitchers who have gone on to have successful careers - but look at the list that Grum produced. Only TWO of those pitchers were born after 1960 (and that includes Gooden) and we're talking about twenty pitchers in over a century of baseball. While you could dispute whether you'd need one hand or four to count the names, I think Ryan made a valid point with regard to the modern game, at least. The idea that his reasoning was based on sour grapes looks a lot like a knee-jerk reaction rather than a considered opinion. That said, Felix Hernandez is finally beginning to realize his monumental potential. He is a real pleasure to watch, and I'm hoping that when the next phenom comes around, the Bob Ryans of the world are forced to say "except, of course, for Hall of Famer Felix Hernandez."
posted by Venicemenace at 11:07 AM on April 13, 2007
Maybe, but it's a bad bet in my book. The next no-hitter that favors the Mets fans' rooting side will be their first. They join San Diego, Colorado, and Tampa Bay as the only franchises never to have thrown one, and obviously they've gone the longest without getting one. An actuary might like their chances, but given their rotation this year, I don't (that's not a heavy bash -- I've still got them winning the division -- but it's just not a "lights out" kind of staff right now). I think it would be awesome if Glavine got one, and it goes without saying that I'd be thrilled to see Mussina or Pettitte work a gem, but rationally I think New York fans will see plenty of hits this year. Neither lineup is a good candidate to get no-hit this year, and neither has a rotation that makes you think it's just a matter of time. I'll go out on a limb and predict a Royals no-hitter -- and I'm going to walk right out to the end of that limb and say that it will be Zach Greinke in an interleague game. (Perhaps there should be a locker room thread on "Rare Feat Predictions" for the season.) All I'm going to say about Don Gullet is that he and Ron Guidry have a lot to talk about. On edit: Only TWO of those pitchers were born after 1960 I don't understand your point, given how many of the failures were born after 1960.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 11:17 AM on April 13, 2007
True, TCS - the pre-21 MLB pitcher is largely an anachronism. I still think Ryan's point, that a heavy workload early in a pitcher's career can prove an impediment to long-term success, is valid. But moreover, I don't think the point was made with malice towards Hernandez, but rather as a note of caution in an overwhelmingly celebratory column. And that was the point I was really trying to make.
posted by Venicemenace at 11:45 AM on April 13, 2007
I still think Ryan's point, that a heavy workload early in a pitcher's career can prove an impediment to long-term success, is valid. It doesn't seem to be. The statistical side folks suggest the tautology that heavy workloads early in a career do damage to pitchers susceptible to injury from overwork. Things like Pitcher Abuse Points seek to find a common middle ground that protects the injury-prone pitchers. While this unfairly yokes newer Clemenses and Schillings, the tradeoff is acceptable until a better method comes along.
posted by yerfatma at 12:21 PM on April 13, 2007
I don't think the point was made with malice towards Hernandez No, the article doesn't bludgeon with malice, but it kind of reads like, "Man, that Felix pitched some game last night, huh? His stuff is just great. It will be such a shame when he flames out early, but he sure is an artist right now." 1 cup grapes, sour. If you want to write an article about how great a pitching performance was, write it. If you want to write a study on the career patterns of sub-21 rookies, then write that (though perhaps not the day after a sub-21 kid has just worked over the hometown team). Interjecting part of the second into the first reads out of context and bitter to me.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 12:31 PM on April 13, 2007
As I said in the SpoFi Fantasy baseball pool: ALL HAIL KING FELIX! Of all the picks I made in the draft, grabbing him in the 5th round was the one I was definitely happiest about. Johan Santana, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir and Jeremy Bonderman are going to be this generation's Maddux, Clemens, Martinez and Johnson. Without the whore-slaying, obviously.