12/25/24
October 03, 2005
Being good or being hot?:
In the MLB playoffs, what matters most in determining who is going to win the whole thing? Overall record? September momentum?
Warning: An article with statistics. Reading discretion is advised.
tremendously boring and tedious article. however, the question is interesting. i believe overall consistency helps in seven game playoff series, but I think that a hot september team may have an advantage in the division series where it is only a best out of five. i think a team that is playing well and playing meaningful games in september can take advantage of a team that has played consistently well over the year and has maybe coasted to a division title in a best of five series.
posted by erkno11 at 08:57 PM on October 03, 2005
tremendously boring and tedious article. There was an f'ing disclaimer. What more do you want?
posted by yerfatma at 09:07 PM on October 03, 2005
Momentum shmomentun. It is all about intangibles.
posted by gspm at 09:49 PM on October 03, 2005
i believe overall consistency helps Tell that to the Braves. Yea, yea, they've lost in their fair share of 5-game series, but they don't do too hot in those 7-game series and they're they very definition of consistency.
posted by jmd82 at 10:31 PM on October 03, 2005
I'd like to see some statistics on intangibles. Nice article, grum.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 11:11 PM on October 03, 2005
I like how the team with the least momentum (2000 Yankees, losing 15 of the last 18), still won the World Series. I remember everyone (including myself) writing them off before the start because of how they played in September. Obviously the Padres would be the longest odds to win the World Series (being a barely .500 team for the season AND September, AND having to get by St. Louis, Atlanta and Houston before even GETTING to the WS), but stranger things have happened... (like a team winning 4 straight after losing the first 3 by a combined score of 32-16)
posted by grum@work at 11:13 PM on October 03, 2005
I choose hot over good. Because hot is ... wait, you're talking baseball teams? Oh man ...
posted by worldcup2002 at 12:15 AM on October 04, 2005
I love it. I read the articel, which seems to do a good job of showing that over the last 35 years momentum has meant diddley squat - then come in here and see you freaking yabos saying how important momentum is. Frankly, I think it's more about match-ups. And specifically hot pitchers, because advantage and 'momentum' can swing the other way after a play, a hit or a pitch.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 08:21 AM on October 04, 2005
I'd like to see some statistics about statistics.
posted by drevl at 09:14 AM on October 04, 2005
statistics about statistics I think those qualify as "intangibles".
posted by DrJohnEvans at 09:19 AM on October 04, 2005
Being good or being hot, doesn't matter. You need one great starting pitcher and one half-decent starter. Add a closer with nerves of steel. At the plate, you need one patient guy who can take base on balls, and one slugger who can drive him in. That's it. In short series where the manager can shorten his rotation and bench, anything can happen if you have those primary elements. Luck doesn't hurt either.
posted by the red terror at 09:45 AM on October 04, 2005
It is all going to come down to who has the better team. Pitching, hitting, defense, baserunning. This is how games are won. Momentum can shift from inning to inning. One play can shift momentum. Momentum cannot replace skill, experience, and determination.
posted by mcstan13 at 10:21 AM on October 04, 2005
Good defense, strong pitching, decent offense....and momentum. These are all big factors in deciding who wins and who loses.
posted by supersly26 at 10:55 AM on October 04, 2005
Good defense, strong pitching, decent offense....and momentum. These are all big factors in deciding who wins and who loses. ...and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope.
posted by goddam at 11:13 AM on October 04, 2005
To heck with the stats--lets just play the games!
posted by daddisamm at 11:13 AM on October 04, 2005
I feel that the team that wins the majority of the games in a series has a better chance at winning the series. Just my opinion though.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 11:28 AM on October 04, 2005
"What's the key for the Yankees tonight, Tim?" "Well, they have to get a good performance from the starting pitcher and score more runs than the opposition. I think that's the key to victory." "Absolutely."
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 11:43 AM on October 04, 2005
I feel that the team that wins the majority of the games in a series has a better chance at winning the series. Just my opinion though. I, for one, would like to welcome Tim McCarver to SpoFi. Don't forget Tim, a walk is just as good as a homerun.
posted by jerseygirl at 11:48 AM on October 04, 2005
Don't forget Tim, a walk is just as good as a homerun I truly, will never forget that. Classic McCarver.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 01:33 PM on October 04, 2005
I am also of the opinion that scoring eight runs in the first game while holding your opponents to none will put you in a leading position. Three walks for Carpenter, though. Odd.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 02:02 PM on October 04, 2005
ESPN's grand unifying theory of October baseball.
posted by the red terror at 02:16 PM on October 04, 2005
Excellent article, the red terror.
posted by grum@work at 03:48 PM on October 04, 2005
The reason the statistics don't show much difference between being hot at the end of the season or good throughout is simple. There are dozens of different ways to win the World Series and it is different each year. Some years you find a team that is that much better than everybody else, 1998 Yankees are a recent example - there was no team in baseball that was going to beat them. It is rarely that simple, but there is some variation from what makes a great regular season team vs. a great postseason team. Teams with a top heavy rotation (Johnson and Shilling in AZ) are better equiped for the post season whereas teams with g a good 1-5 rotation (Chicago White Sox, this year) are suited to win a bunch of games in the regular season, but generally don't fare as well in the postseason because they don't have a guy that can shut down the other team.
posted by bigrobbieb at 04:29 PM on October 04, 2005
playoff baseball you need a front loaded pitching staff, solid closer, clutch hitting, good defense and luck. Gee i think i just named almost all the factors required to win a game sorry.
posted by fade2244 at 04:59 PM on October 04, 2005
Momentum is key- with teams as even as they are, its hard to get something going without some kind of confidence going into the playoffs.