Posnanski Expects Big Decline for Pujols, Hamilton: Joe Posnanski predicts that the Angels' Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton will contribute less offensively over the next five years than the Royals' Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez. "Josh Hamilton, as mentioned, will turn 32 years old in May. ... Pujols, as mentioned, will turn 33 in January," he writes. "Players of those ages of 32 and 33, more often than not, are in full decline mode, some frighteningly so. "
Hamilton will also have to deal with the dreaded "marine layer" in Anaheim, although maybe that's only in left field . . .
posted by Mookieproof at 03:27 PM on December 18, 2012
"marine layer" in Anaheim
In Anaheim? I always thought the Marine layers were the girls who worked the bars outside Camp Pendleton.
posted by Howard_T at 11:38 PM on December 18, 2012
Howard_T: In Anaheim? I always thought the Marine layers were the girls who worked the bars outside Camp Pendleton.Hey-yo, Howard's working blue today! :)
It is an interesting premise, and is the heart of Moneyball style thinking. The guys who are 22 are going to be vastly cheaper (we'll say at a salary of 1/A of the superstars) than the proven stars, and there's some decent chance (we'll call it a 1 in B chance) they have a 3-4+ WAR production year-over-year. In general, any player getting regular time in the majors at or before his 22nd year is fairly likely to have a high upside. Meanwhile, the 32/33 year olds who were churning out 7-8+ WAR years are almost a certainty to drop to 3-4 WAR very quickly- or worse.
If the pay rate multiple of A (i.e., superstar costs A times as much as 22-year-old) is greater than B, then the young player will "pay out" better than the superstars. For example, if the 22-year-old costs 1/20th of what you pay Hamilton and Pujols, while they are a 1/5 (20%) chance of equaling or exceeding the 3-4 WAR or better of the superstar over the next 5-10 years, then they're a great bet: they "pay out" at a 4x rate of your investment.
However, it's just not that simple, for several reasons:
posted by hincandenza at 12:20 AM on December 19, 2012
This is exactly what I want to hear as a Rangers fan who just finished burning all my notebooks full of love poetry to Hamilton.
Jeez, rcade....love poetry to Hamilton; Tebow being your "moon," "sun," and "stars"?
You may be a little too emotionally attached. ;-)
posted by dyams at 06:12 AM on December 19, 2012
Just a little overattached. And now I may have to come up with words that rhyme with Pierzynski.
posted by rcade at 10:59 AM on December 19, 2012
I may have to come up with words that rhyme with Pierzynski
nieprzystosowany
posted by beaverboard at 11:13 AM on December 19, 2012
Yet finding a rhyme for Pierzynski will be easier than rhyming Purple or Orange...
posted by Folkways at 12:08 PM on December 19, 2012
This is exactly what I want to hear as a Rangers fan who just finished burning all my notebooks full of love poetry to Hamilton. But I am skeptical that his prediction will prove true, given that the bar he's setting for the beasts of Anaheim is pretty low.
posted by rcade at 01:15 PM on December 18, 2012