November 21, 2009

Glad to see that the Syracuse hoops team took care of business against North Carolina last night. It's good for the sake of humankind for the Carolina program to be brought back to earth every once in a while.

Upstate Orange and Carolina Blue makes for a sharp looking TV broadcast.

Syracuse has a nice family legacy thing going on in their backcourt with Andy Rautins (son of Leo) and Brandon Triche (nephew of Howard). One a freshman, the other a senior. Both from the same area and the same high school.

That lends a certain warm, small town wholesomeness and continuity to the experience of playing in the cozy embrace of the Carrier Dome.

posted by beaverboard at 07:10 AM on November 21, 2009

Bill Simmons piles on Belichick, even though he acknowledges the percentages were in Belichick's favor. "Statistics can't capture the uniqueness of a particular moment," he writes. Ugh. It's painful to see him reject logic so brazenly.

posted by rcade at 08:54 AM on November 21, 2009

Clippers broadcasters suspended for remarks about the first Iranian NBA player, Hamed Haddadi.

I assume they'll spend their suspension in the owner's box, cracking racist jokes. How about we concentrate on suspending him?

posted by yerfatma at 10:00 AM on November 21, 2009

I don't know what Gruden's getting paid to be in the booth, but if he's invested wisely from prior salary years, his airtime pay is likely more than enough to get by on, and he's enjoying himself and having a ton of fun. And does not have to work the insane hours that he did when he was in coaching.

Plus, Gruden already knows what it's like to come up short in the snow, from having gotten jobbed in the Raiders - Pats playoff game. Once is enough.

posted by beaverboard at 12:19 PM on November 21, 2009

Except you're not counting all of the lottery tickets and cigarette taxes that pay for math geeks' public services. We're comfortably ahead in your competition.

posted by yerfatma at 01:07 PM on November 21, 2009

To say that the writer is rejecting logic is to not understand the unique circumstances of this game.

There's nothing unique about football that makes statistics irrelevant. Coaches use statistics all the time to make decisions, such as the chart they use to decide when to go for two after a touchdown.

It's one thing to say that on that fourth-and-2, the statistics should be ignored because of other factors. But the dismissal of statistics entirely -- as if they didn't matter at all -- is the kind of stupidity that helped Oakland A's GM Billy Beane outperform his peers for a decade.

One of the things that makes Belichick special as a coach is that he's coldly rational about the game. He doesn't let emotion drive his decisions. The more I learn about what he did that night, the more I like it¹. The safe move was to punt, but he decided the smart move was to go for it, no matter how it would look if they failed to convert.

^{1. And I say that as someone who dislikes Belichick.}

posted by rcade at 01:44 PM on November 21, 2009

BBC: About 200 European football games are under investigation in a match-fixing inquiry, German prosecutors have said. At least three of the games were in the Champions League and another 12 were in the Uefa Europa League, officials said.

posted by rumple at 02:58 PM on November 21, 2009

I don't think I commented originally, but while I admire Bill's guts, I would have punted. That's a pretty clear vote of no confidence in your defense, and even if they deserve it, I don't think that's the message I want to send if I DON'T make it, much less for the remainder of the season.

posted by wfrazerjr at 08:33 PM on November 21, 2009

But, since Belichick failed this time, the numbers are now surely in his favor the next time, I mean, that'd be logical wouldn't it?

ummm, that was a joke, I'm fully aware that one event does not change the odds for the next event.

Math geeks weren't proven wrong by what happened; probability has to do with aggregates, not individual results or guaranteed predictions. If the play was run 1000 times, it's likely work out around 700/1000. Which 700 times? We have no idea

Wow, now you're up to 70%...in the original thread someone was quoting 60%, which I don't believe, but 70%, no way. I think the writer of the article that rcade qoutes in this thread is looking at it more clearly. His odds, which he backs up, show a much lower success rate. We're never going to see that situation (that exact situation, not just a generic 4th and 2) enough to know for sure what the real probabilities are, but for now it's 100% in favor of punting. I didn't need a calculator to figure that out.

posted by dviking at 10:49 PM on November 21, 2009

Dude? angels? I'm confused.

Anyway, I'm fully aware that one event doesn't disprove the odds, nor does one event predict the outcome of the next event (assuming the events are unrelated). The point of the discussions was not about that. It was about whether or not Belichick was strictly playing the odds, or if it was a gut check call. It depends on how you view the odds. I agree with the writer cited in this thread, others don't.

Sorry if my attempt at dry humor threw you off. Via my economics degree I have had my share of statisical analysis, so I do understand probabilities. I was truly just joking when I said the real probabilites are 100% in favor of punting, but since there has only been one truly relevant situation to monitor the case could be made. Sorry, economists always have the "on the other hand" argument ready.

posted by dviking at 09:56 PM on November 22, 2009