11/23/24
March 28, 2007
MLB Predictions Thread: As the baseball season is just around the corner, I thought it would be fun to get the SpoFi community's predictions for the 2007 season on record. Categories and predictions inside.
I would like to point out that in the 2006 thread, I nailed the AL East, AL West, NL Central, NL West, AL Manager of the Year, and the Roger Clemens question. That said, I'm less confident this year: AL East: Boston Red Sox AL Central: Cleveland Indians AL West: Oakland A's AL Wild Card: New York Yankees NL East: New York Mets NL Central: Chicago Cubs NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks NL Wild Card: San Diego Padres AL Champs: Cleveland Indians NL Champs: New York Mets World Champs: Cleveland Indians AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (Sea) NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt (Hou) AL MVP: Grady Sizemore (Cle) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (StL) (for future reference, this is my choice every season until he turns 40) AL ROY: Alex Gordon (KC) NL ROY: Homer Bailey (Cin) Where Is Roger Clemens on July 1st?: New York Yankees
posted by grum@work at 04:57 PM on March 28, 2007
Also, I'll reiterate a request for the MLB Confidence Pool based on my suggestions from last year. I'm not sure if the software can handle negative numbers.
posted by grum@work at 04:59 PM on March 28, 2007
I think the confidence pool would be great if the software can handle the negatives. I imagine someone could create an Excel sheet that would handle it, but that would presumably require manual inputs of participants' picks and manual updating of win totals throughout the season. I especially like the proposed confidence pool route of picking the losers too. And I'll go with Clemens as a member of the Red Sox on July 1.
posted by holden at 06:15 PM on March 28, 2007
AL East: New York Yankees AL Central: Cleveland Indians AL West: Oakland A's AL Wild Card: Detroit Tigers NL East: Florida Marlins NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers NL West: San Diego Padres NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies AL Champs: Cleveland Indians NL Champs: San Diego Padres World Champs: Cleveland Indians AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (Min) NL Cy Young: Dontrelle Willis (Fla) AL MVP: Grady Sizemore (Cle) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (StL) AL ROY: Delmon Young (TB) NL ROY: Chris Iannetta (Col) Home runs by Ryan Howard: 41 Clemens is an Astro in July.
posted by SummersEve at 06:26 PM on March 28, 2007
AL East: Red Sox AL Central: Tigers, baby! AL West: A's AL WC: Yanksters
NL East: Mets NL Central: Cards NL West: D'backs NL WC: Atlanta
AL Champs: Tigers NL Champs: Mets
World Champs: Detroit Tigers
AL CY: Johan Santana (MIN) NL CY: Jake Peavy (SDP) AL MVP: Gary Sheffield (DET) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) AL ROY: Alex Gordon (KC) NL ROY: Kevin Kouzmanoff (SDP) HOME RUN LEADER: Ortiz (BOS) with 59. Clemens retires again after getting caught with a needle full of HGH stuck in his arse.
posted by wingnut4life at 06:52 PM on March 28, 2007
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays AL Central: Minnesota Twins AL West: Oakland A's AL Wild Card: New York Yankees NL East: New York Mets NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies AL Champion: New York Yankees NL Champion: Milwaukee Brewers World Series Champs: Milwaukee Brewers hey, it's still Spring Training, so a guy can dream, can't he? AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (MIN) NL Cy Young: Ben Sheets (MIL) AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NYY) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (KC) NL ROY: Matt Cain (SF) Home Run Champ: Ryan Howard (PHI) with 53. Clemens to the Yankees in July.
posted by rocketman at 07:05 PM on March 28, 2007
(e.g., date of Carl Pavano's first trip to the DL) Now, I ask you, is that necessary? Geez, Mr. Cardinal Fan, you couldn't have gone the J.D. Drew route? No, you have to pick on the Yankees. AL East: New York Yankees AL Central: Detroit Tigers AL West: Seattle Mariners AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox NL East: New York Mets NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals (see this, holden... you should feel really bad about now) NL West: San Diego Padres NL Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers AL Champs: Detroit Tigers NL Champs: San Diego Padres World Champs: San Diego Padres AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (MIN) I learned my lesson -- I'll never pick against him again NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt (HOU) AL MVP: Vlad Guerrero (LAA) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (StL) AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) NL ROY: Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) (for future reference, this is my choice every season until he turns 40) Where Is Roger Clemens on July 1st?: New York Yankees Where is A-Rod on Aug 1st?: Chicago Cubs Where is Carl Pavano on Aug 1st?:Chicago Cubs Where is Carlos Zambrano on Aug 1st?: New York Yankees Where is Aramis Ramirez on Aug 1st?:New York Yankees
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 07:05 PM on March 28, 2007
Also, I'll reiterate a request for the MLB Confidence Pool based on my suggestions from last year. I'm not sure if the software can handle negative numbers. i actually had asked qbert about rigging his pool site to handle an MLB pool. but i was leaning more towards ranking the teams 30 to 1. not sure if q ever got anywhere with it though.
posted by goddam at 07:40 PM on March 28, 2007
(e.g., date of Carl Pavano's first trip to the DL) Now, I ask you, is that necessary? Geez, Mr. Cardinal Fan, you couldn't have gone the J.D. Drew route? No, you have to pick on the Yankees. I'm sorry, I meant to add a category of the date of Carl Pavano's first car accident and then the date he actually tells the team. I kid, I kid. I was actually hoping the Cards could get Pavano on the cheap this offseason, but nothing doing (and it looks like the Yankees need the pitching depth while Wang convalesces and Phil Hughes gets some time in at Scranton). And before you go accusing me of more anti-Yankees bias, see my picks above, my friend. (I will, however, admit to almost picking Alex Rodriguez as my AL MVP just to tweak you.)
posted by holden at 09:20 PM on March 28, 2007
Where is A-Rod on Aug 1st?: Chicago Cubs Where is Carl Pavano on Aug 1st?:Chicago Cubs Where is Carlos Zambrano on Aug 1st?: New York Yankees Where is Aramis Ramirez on Aug 1st?:New York Yankees Intriguing. INSANE, but intriguing nonetheless. I imagine someone could create an Excel sheet that would handle it, but that would presumably require manual inputs of participants' picks and manual updating of win totals throughout the season. It wouldn't have to be updated every game. I think a once-a-month refresh of the win totals would be spiffy.
posted by grum@work at 11:03 PM on March 28, 2007
I feel strangely compelled. AL East: New York AL Central: Chicago AL West: Anaheim AL Wild: Toronto NL East: New York NL Central: St. Louis NL West: Los Angeles NL Wild: Pittsburgh ALCS: Chicago over Toronto in 6 NLCS: New York over Pittsburgh in 7 WS: Chicago in 5. How dull. Again, the two LCSs will steal the show. AL MVP: Vernon Wells NL MVP: Albert Pujols AL ROY: Delmon Young NL ROY: Mike Pelfrey AL Cy: John Lackey NL Cy: Chris Carpenter Roger Clemens, July 1: Houston.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 11:56 PM on March 28, 2007
I'm sorry, I meant to add a category of the date of Carl Pavano's first car accident and then the date he actually tells the team. Whatever. I'm still looking forward to LaRussa's claim that, even though he got busted, he is still the best at hiding the fact that he is loaded from the cops and they had no business pulling him over. I will, however, admit to almost picking Alex Rodriguez as my AL MVP just to tweak you. I would have picked that up, too. I work under the presumption that everything that is written on this site is done with the intent of tweaking me. In that way, it's easier to fly off the handle for no reason whatsoever. I think the many selections of Grady Sizemore is interesting, as they would seem to prophesize that, for the third year in a row, the AL MVP Award will not have gone to the MVP of the guy's own team. INSANE, but intriguing nonetheless. The more I think about this trade, the more convinced I become that it couldn't possibly NOT happen. I can see both sides seeing it as a huge win, and a real boon to their future goals. And the final measure of the trade could be debated forever -- the difficulty of finding a talent like A-Rod vs. the difficulty in prying loose an established ace like Zambrano during a pennant run. If Zambrano gives the Yankees the title, it will barely matter in the final judgment whether they can sign him beyond this year or not. On edit: I also think the Confidence Pool would be great. Even weekly updates might not be so unreasonable a task.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 12:42 AM on March 29, 2007
Sousepaw, I don't see it as harshing on my beloved Yankees to tell the truth about Carl "Wounded White Elephant" Pavano. In fact, I'm halfway tempted to enter some fantasy league and create a team called LBB's Disasters, stocked with the players most likely to get hurt on (or before) opening day, drive their overpriced overpowered sports car into some easy-to-overlook obstacle like an eight-foot wall, get arrested, fail the piss test, or otherwise screw the pooch. I haven't thought about who else would be on it, but Pavano would be high on the list.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 08:50 AM on March 29, 2007
AL East: Red Sox AL Central: Indians AL West: Angels AL WC: Yankees NL East: Mets NL Central: Cardinals NL West: Diamondbacks NL WC: Braves AL Champs: Red Sox NL Champs: Braves World Champs: Red Sox AL CY: Johan Santana (MIN) NL CY: Jake Peavy (SDG) AL MVP: David Ortiz (BOS) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) AL ROY: Alex Gordon (KC) NL ROY: Chris Iannetta (COL) Where Is Roger Clemens on July 1st?: Sitting at home J.D. Drew's first trip to the DL: June 15 Tom Glavine's 300th win: August 3
posted by trox at 08:53 AM on March 29, 2007
And before you go accusing me of more anti-Yankees bias, see my picks above, my friend. I have to assume that you fancy yourself a jinx. LBB, nobody needs to remind me of Pavano's fragility more than Pavano already does. Sigh. And, while I'm here: Bonds breaks Aaron's record: ties it August 14, breaks it August 16. Both in Atlanta.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 11:16 AM on March 29, 2007
the AL MVP Award will not have gone to the MVP of the guy's own team. Clarification please. Are you saying Travis Hafner will definitely have a better season than Sizemore?
posted by yerfatma at 11:44 AM on March 29, 2007
AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (KC) How'd that happen?
posted by jerseygirl at 01:53 PM on March 29, 2007
Gotta pay attention, jg. They got him for the league minimum and a supply of the last Bazooka Joe bubble gum.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 02:58 PM on March 29, 2007
I think the many selections of Grady Sizemore is interesting, as they would seem to prophesize that, for the third year in a row, the AL MVP Award will not have gone to the MVP of the guy's own team. The Morneau/Mauer/Santana thing from last year, I get. HUGE mistake there. But there is no way you can honestly believe that there was a Yankee better than Alex Rodriguez in 2005. He finished 1st (on the Yankees) in games played, runs, home runs, RBI, AVG, SLG, and OPS, and 2nd or 3rd (on the Yankees) in hits, doubles, OBP, walks and stolen bases. Jeter/Giambi/Sheffield combined don't have big enough "intangibles" to make up that sort of performance. Maybe you forgot about 2005 and were thinking of 2004? If so, even worse. Vlad Guerrero was more dominating (compared to the rest of the Angels) than ARod was to the Yankees in 2005.
posted by grum@work at 05:10 PM on March 29, 2007
Are you saying Travis Hafner will definitely have a better season than Sizemore? If he stays healthy all season -- guarantee. I'm not saying it, I'm singing it. But there is no way you can honestly believe that there was a Yankee better than Alex Rodriguez in 2005. Mariano Rivera. On edit: By the way, Grum -- off topic -- I like to think that Frank Thomas signed with the Bleu Jays as thanks to you personally for your tireless, and entirely due, defenses of him here. And getting a little closer to the topic (re: predictions): which combinations of players would you rather have on your fantasy team, Thomas and Matsuzaka or Bobby Abreu and Tim Hudson?
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 05:27 PM on March 29, 2007
AL East: Yankees AL Central: Twins AL West: Angels AL WC: Tigers NL East: Braves NL Central: Cardinals NL West: Padres NL WC: Phillies AL Champs: Tigers NL Champs: Cardinals World Champs: Tigers AL CY: Johan Santana (MIN) NL CY: Chris Carpenter (STL) AL MVP: Gary Sheffield NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) Where Is Roger Clemens on July 1st?: Yankees J.D. Drew's first trip to the DL: April 8th Tom Glavine's 300th win: July 31st Combined games Mark Prior and Kerry Wood spend on the DL: 157 And getting a little closer to the topic (re: predictions): which combinations of players would you rather have on your fantasy team, Thomas and Matsuzaka or Bobby Abreu and Tim Hudson? Abreu and Hudson. I also must note, I will not be suprised if the Tigers fail to even make the playoffs. The Central is a fantastic division (best in the league in my opinion) and I've watched way too many Tigers' games to put all my faith in last year's performance. That said, I will not jinx my beloved Tigers by picking against them. I won't do it.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 06:32 PM on March 29, 2007
AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (KC) How'd that happen? God, I'm such a bonehead. Sorry.
posted by rocketman at 07:23 PM on March 29, 2007
Thomas and Matsuzaka or Bobby Abreu and Tim Hudson? "Fantasy team" does make it more complicated, but I still gotta go with the former by a long chalk.
posted by yerfatma at 07:41 PM on March 29, 2007
Thomas and Matsuzaka or Bobby Abreu and Tim Hudson? Thomas and Matsuzaka, especially if it's just the normal 5x5 stats. But there is no way you can honestly believe that there was a Yankee better than Alex Rodriguez in 2005. Mariano Rivera. *epic spit-take* Defensive contributions: Mariano Rivera: 7 putouts + 22 assists + 1 double play + 80 strikeouts = 110 outs (and that's not subtracting walks, which add base runners like errors do) Alex Rodriguez: 116 putouts +290 assists +26 double plays = 432 outs - 12 errors = 420 outs Offensive contributions: Mariano Rivera: 0 Alex Rodriguez: More than anyone else on the entire team One of the dumbest things that can happen is a relief pitcher winning the MVP. At least the NL voters haven't let that happen. Yet.
posted by grum@work at 09:40 PM on March 29, 2007
On edit: By the way, Grum -- off topic -- I like to think that Frank Thomas signed with the Bleu Jays as thanks to you personally for your tireless, and entirely due, defenses of him here. I'll admit to almost squealing with glee like a school-girl when I heard that they signed him. Sometimes the fan inside me overrides the analyst when it comes to baseball moves, and this is one of them.
posted by grum@work at 09:52 PM on March 29, 2007
But, did you "tee hee?" I've gotta know!
posted by The_Black_Hand at 06:21 AM on March 30, 2007
AL East: Red Sox AL Central: Twins AL West: Angels AL Wild Card: Tigers NL East: Phillies NL Central: Brewers NL West: Diamondbacks NL Wild Card: Mets AL Champs: Red Sox NL Champs: Brewers World Champs: Red Sox AL Cy: Johan Santana (MIN) NL Cy: Brandon Webb (ARI) AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NYY and/or elsewhere) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) NL ROY: No idea
posted by yerfatma at 06:33 AM on March 30, 2007
Homers abound! But it wouldn't be (almost) April without optimism.
posted by jerseygirl at 08:46 AM on March 30, 2007
AL East: Blue Jays AL Central: Indians AL West: Oakland AL WC: Yankees NL East: Phillies NL Central: Brewers NL West: Diamondbacks NL WC: Mets AL Cy: Roy Halladay NL Cy: Randy Johnson AL MVP: Vernon Wells NL MVP: Pujols Total homer, coming through! Make way people! Go Jays Go!
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 08:58 AM on March 30, 2007
While we're being homers, I'd just like to mention to y'all that the T.O. Season Passes are still available, and if you pick one up for yourself, we should make a point of having SpoFi meetups in the 'Dome nosebleeds all summer long. If you're interested, drop me an email and I can give you the contact info for the sales rep I dealt with, and you can get instant gratification instead of dealing with the web site—plus you avoid the convenience charge! Yes, it's more "convenient" for the Blue Jays to pay a person to devote all his attention to you than it is for them to sit back and let the website do the work for them. Obviously more than one aspect of the team's mentality is stuck in 1993.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:39 AM on March 30, 2007
Absolutely - I will not drop the ball this year and fail to hook up.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 10:53 AM on March 30, 2007
Okay. I have only one season prediction: The Yankees will not make the playoffs. How do I know this? Read it and weep. hey, maybe we can get Jeff Weaver back.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 12:34 PM on March 30, 2007
I heard that a couple days ago. Surprised they didn't go with Mussina.
posted by jerseygirl at 01:01 PM on March 30, 2007
AL East: Blue Jays AL Central: Indians AL West: Angels AL WC: Mariners NL East: Phillies NL Central: Cubs NL West: Diamondbacks NL WC: Dodgers AL Champs: Angels NL Champs: Cubs World Champs: Angels AL Cy: Lackey NL Cy: Zambrano AL MVP: Guerrero NL MVP: D. Lee AL ROY: Matsuzaka NL ROY: C Young
posted by catfish at 01:28 PM on March 30, 2007
I heard that a couple days ago. Surprised they didn't go with Mussina. Me too. There's something I'm just not getting.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 01:43 PM on March 30, 2007
A World Series championship for your team this year?
posted by yerfatma at 02:29 PM on March 30, 2007
A World Series championship for your team this year? That would appear to be one of the things I'm not getting, for sure. OTOH, maybe this Pavano-on-opening-day ploy is, you know, a ploy...intended to lull everybody into complacency or something. Or maybe they're hoping he'll get a blister on his pinkie and have to go on the DL for another 15 months. He does less harm there.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 02:37 PM on March 30, 2007
I heard that a couple days ago. Surprised they didn't go with Mussina. moose's last spring start is today. he would have to throw on short rest in order to start the opener.
posted by goddam at 02:54 PM on March 30, 2007
AL East: Red Sox AL Central: Twins AL West: A's AL Wild Card: Indians NL East: Mets NL Central: Brewers NL West: Diamondbacks NL Wild Card: Cardinals AL Champs: Red Sox NL Champs: Diamondbacks World Champs: Red Sox* AL Cy: Johan Santana (MIN) NL Cy: Ben Sheets (MIL) AL MVP: David Ortiz (BOS - First place = MVP) NL MVP: David Wright (NYM) AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) NL ROY: Chris B. Young (ARI) Roger Clemens on July 1: Houston First manager fired: Joe Torre - and I'm not saying that to get a rise out of Sousepaw. I honestly think that starting pitching will get off to an atrocious start and it'll be unavoidable. *Thank you Jordan's Furniture for the free couch!
posted by YukonGold at 05:27 PM on March 30, 2007
AL East: Boston Red Sox AL Central: Cleveland Indians AL West: Greater Los Angeles Metro Area Angels AL WC: Toronto Blue Jays NL East: New York Mets NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers NL WC: Philadelphia Phillies AL Champs: Red Sox NL Champs: Phillies World Series Champions: Red Sox AL Cy: Johan Santana (MIN) NL Cy: Jake Peavy (SD) AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez (NYY) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) NL ROY: Chris Iannetta (COL) The Clemens-go-Round stops in Houston again. Date when Alex Rodriguez' hair starts to fall out in large clumps: July 22 Number of times that that Barry Bonds will ask, "Does anybody have any baseball questions?": 267 Date when Ozzie Guillen says something unbelievably stupid: Yesterday First manager fired: The aforementioned Mister Guillen Number of Steinbrenner offspring single at the All-Star Break: 2 Best blog about him: Lastings Milledge (NYM)
posted by The_Black_Hand at 08:48 PM on March 30, 2007
Update: I asked for Matsuzaka and Thomas and was rejected. I re-countered asking for Abreu and Hudson and it was accepted. If that means anything (or anyone cares). My bait was Johan Santana (...I know... but I missed the draft and my team is full of invalids -- I have to make twofers to fill the holes and take some chances). I think the guy fell in love with Dice-K when he drafted him. First manager fired: Joe Torre With Mattingly in the dugout and Girardi right there in the YES booth, it's not a terrible call. I do think you're underrating their pitching, but we'll see. I think there will be very little turnover this year. Most of the teams that are set up to fall have managers who are highly unlikely to be going anywhere (Cox, LaRussa, Piniella, Garner, Scioscia). Otherwise, I think performance is likely to meet expectations. It would be a shame if Buddy Bell got the shaft after being handed another pathetic roster -- if Alex Gordon doesn't have a perfect launch they might say Bell isn't the player developer they need or some ridiculous thing. I think the Swindal divorce proceedings are going to be too exciting for anybody to notice if Torre's playing below expectations. On edit: Number of Steinbrenner offspring single at the All-Star Break: 2 Not if I have anything to say about it...
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 09:09 PM on March 30, 2007
moose's last spring start is today. he would have to throw on short rest in order to start the opener. They had time to shuffle...
posted by jerseygirl at 02:50 PM on March 31, 2007
not really. mussina pitched on the day they decided that wang would go on the DL (march 24). you figure that he would need to get another start in before ST ended. but the earliest he could throw again would be the 29th, which would still put him on short rest for opening day. no sense in starting someone on short rest this early in the season. if they were going to try start anybody else for the opener it would have been pettitte. but they didn't want to push it, which i don't have a problem with. it's one game out of 162. and like my friend steve says, it could be worse.
posted by goddam at 03:16 PM on March 31, 2007
NY will probably put up a couple of touchdowns and it won't make a difference who they're pitching.
posted by justgary at 05:04 PM on March 31, 2007
Three hours before the opener, here are my picks: AL East: Boston Red Sox AL Central: Minnesota Twins AL West: LA Angels AL Wild Card: Toronto Blue Jays NL East: New York Mets NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies AL Champs: Boston Red Sox NL Champs: LA Dodgers World Champs: Boston Red Sox AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (Min) NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy (SD) AL MVP: Alex Rios (Toronto) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (StL) AL ROY: Alex Gordon (KC) NL ROY: Chris Iannetta (Col) Ryan Howard HRs: 37 On July 1, Roger Clemens is: still a huge cock.
posted by wfrazerjr at 02:51 PM on April 01, 2007
First manager fired: Joe Torre I'd hate to see it, but Charlie Manuel will be on a short leash if the Phils don't start well. Especially with Davey Lopes and Jimy Williams already in the dugout.
posted by SummersEve at 05:12 AM on April 02, 2007
So pick the division winners and wild card team from each league, pennant winners from each league and World Series champs. For awards, pick Cy Young, MVP and ROY for each league. Maybe if there's interest we'll assign points to the various categories/outcomes and revisit this 7 months hence to see who is the ultimate winner. Feel free to add additional prediction categories as well (e.g., date of Carl Pavano's first trip to the DL). Here are my picks: AL East: Yankees AL Central: Indians AL West: Angels AL WC: Red Sox NL East: Phillies NL Central: Cardinals NL West: Diamondbacks NL WC: Mets AL Champs: Yankees NL Champs: Phillies World Champs: Yankees AL Cy: Johan Santana (MIN) NL Cy: Jake Peavy (SDG) AL MVP: Grady Sizemore (CLE) NL MVP: Albert Pujols (STL) AL ROY: Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) NL ROY: Chris Young (ARI)