January 18, 2004

FYI, for those who forgot, the three pick items for the Superbowl, as defined by the great and wise forksclovestofu, were:

1. Winner: (pick either the New England Patriots or Carolina Panthers)
2. Over/Under: (Simply Over, or Under, as a choice- see footnote below)
3. MVP: The particular individual who will be awarded the MVP at the end of the game (invariably from the winning team)

SpoFi needs to decide the issue of MVP, over/under, and possible ties: For MVP, I'd presume that in the unlikely but possible case of a co-MVP, if you picked any of the players who share the co-MVP (for example, like Jerseygirl might if she picks Ty Law, and he ends up sharing the MVP with Tom Brady), you should get the point regardless. For Over/Under, we need to decide what the actual over/under is (do we use the vegas odds, or come up with our own) and what to do if the over/under is hit directly. Does that pick get forfeited for everyone, as would typically happen in regular betting, or do we pick either over/under as including the line itself? For Ties, at the end of the day, there's a very good chance we'll still have a tie. The tiebreaker should be something like whomever had a 4-4 weekend, or failing that whomever had 3+ for both of the first two weekends, etc. Any good ideas? Strategy: Because it's a 3-way pick, you can certainly hedge your bet by picking the Patriots to win, but then picking an MVP like Manning or Delhomme from the Panthers. Depending on your place in the standings, you might want to either hedge your bets to ensure that you get 1 or more points even if you can't get all 3, just to hold a lead, or put it all on the line in hopes of jumping ahead.

Note on "Over/Under": for those not familiar with over/under betting, it's not betting on a spread or a particular winner, but rather that the combined point total of both teams will be either over, or under the point total specified. So regardless of who wins or loses (Patriots 24-13, say, or Carolina 23-14) if the over/under is "38", and you pick "UNDER", you win, because the combined score is less than "38". If you pick "OVER", you lose. If they combine to score 50 points however, then the "OVER" bet wins. If the score ends up being the actual over/under- in this case if the teams combine to score exactly 38- it's called a "push" and is a null bet.

As always, I'm here to fulfill all your anal retentive needs. :D

posted by hincandenza at 10:28 PM on January 18, 2004

Considering I went 2 for 6 the last two weeks, my misspelled ass feels neither great nor wise. But FWIW IMHO BBQ: RE: MVP- In the case of a co-MVP, if you pick either one you get the point. RE:Over under- I think Vegas odds are the way to go... probably a line as of the end of this week? Suggestions on this? If we push, I say free point to everyone. That way, we all have one bet we can root for together. In any case, I'd wait to post your guesses until after we can post official odds here. RE: Ties- Here's a suggestion for two tiebreakers: along with your picks, also post if you think there will be an overtime or no overtime AS WELL AS the winning team's score. Unless there's a tie, these picks will have no bearing on points. BUT if there is a tie for first, we FIRST go by the OT or no OT as a tiebreaker (if you feel lucky, betting the unlikely OT could put you over the top... or it could knock you out). But if that DOESN'T clear up the problem, we take anyone standing from that first tie breaker and then go by whoever's guess at the winning team's score (REGARDLESS of which team wins) is closest to the genuine article. Again, if you guess wrong on the OT, you're out of the tie. If you guess right, but so does someone else, then it comes down to who's closer on the winning team's final score. If EVERYONE guesses wrong on the OT, then we just go to the second tiebreaker. That should throw enough kinks in the garden hose to clear up any logjams and fricassee any errant metaphors and all that jazz. /just a few suggestions. let me know what you think BTW: Still 100%... but then, it IS how he makes his living...

posted by forksclovetofu at 11:24 PM on January 18, 2004

I should have went who I wanted to lose instead I got caught up in wanting a Colts/Eagles Bowl game as my father is the Colts fan and my future bro-in-law's favorite team is the Eagles. That would have made for an interesting Super Bowl party. Oh well.

posted by jasonspaceman at 06:13 PM on January 19, 2004

Patriots. I'd like the Panthers to win, and will be rooting for them (I'm a sucker for the underdog) -- but the two games I've missed so far have been "bet with your heart, not your head" games. MVP: Tom Brady. He may not be the most important factor in the Pats' win, but he's telegenic and a QB. Like corpse says, I'm taking the under unless the under turns out to be "seven."

posted by jeffmshaw at 11:11 AM on January 20, 2004

I still can't believe the pasting the Cats put on McNabb--he's gonna be in the jacuzzi until mini-camp. I'm reserving my predictions until the rest of you losers show your hands.

posted by billsaysthis at 02:28 PM on January 20, 2004

I was freezing my ass off camping in a tent surrounded with snow on the first week of the playoffs, so I'm the guy showing up sober after everyone's been trashed for hours. Oh well, these are for trash talking purposes only: Panthers: Tom Brady spent the week applauding Bush, invoking negative karma, the Football Gods or bad Juju, depending on your religion. Delhomme: because the guy with a name that translates to "Jack of the Man" is a winner in my book. Over: there's no snow in Houston.

posted by dusted at 11:20 PM on January 23, 2004

Panthers: Panthers : 2003-4 :: Patriots : 2001-2. Rod Smart (!!!!). Why not. Under (as a differentiator).

posted by taupe at 01:21 PM on January 24, 2004

I don't know what any of this means: Panthers Steve Smith Under

posted by rocketman at 01:05 PM on January 26, 2004

Patriots. Brady is the inevitable MVP. Over.

posted by Bryant at 07:06 PM on January 26, 2004

Carolina Manning Jr.: he's a rookie that stays in one of those unconscious zones and becomes the feel-good story---2 more INTs for him. Under

posted by smithers at 07:52 PM on January 26, 2004

When is the official call for picks? Will it be a front page or lockerroom post?

posted by grum@work at 12:32 PM on January 27, 2004

garfield: are you kidding me?

posted by smithers at 07:24 PM on January 27, 2004

Vegas chooses a number (like 38). You have to guess whether the combined score of the two teams is OVER that amount (say, 27-17 final score) or UNDER that amount (say, 17-10 final score). It doesn't matter who wins, only the combined number of points is what they are looking at.

posted by grum@work at 10:34 PM on January 27, 2004

I suppose as long as we're asking questions, is there even a player named "Steve Smith" on the Panthers? I thought he was a receiver or running back (some offensive player), but I haven't been paying very close attention to this stuff.

posted by rocketman at 07:29 AM on January 28, 2004

i've been picking against both these teams all post season (except for carolina in week 1). the difference has been i've actually thought the pathers would lose while i just wanted the patriots to lose. so it's taken awhile to decide whether to follow the head or the heart in this final round. i've chosen heart...it's what makes sports fun. panthers.  stephen davis.  under.

posted by danostuporstar at 03:00 PM on January 28, 2004

Panthers MVP: Delhomme Over

posted by jasonspaceman at 08:54 PM on January 28, 2004

why do a lot of people hate the patriots?

posted by jerseygirl at 09:55 PM on January 28, 2004

It's probably because they're the favorite, and if you're not a fan of either team, you automatically root for the dog.

posted by dusted at 11:13 PM on January 28, 2004

they beat my team jg. I'm honor bound to dislike them.

posted by forksclovetofu at 02:04 AM on January 29, 2004

apparently brady isnt a republican, much to my relief.

posted by jerseygirl at 07:52 AM on January 29, 2004

It's okay, rocketman. My logic for choosing him is that the hockey player with the same name was notorious for losing a very important hockey game because of a blunder. I'm hoping that karmic payback will be that his football counterpart will be the hero in a very important football game.

posted by grum@work at 09:41 AM on January 29, 2004

Isn't it weird, JG? I can't remember the last time a Boston sports team was the consensus hated favorite.

posted by Bryant at 02:11 PM on January 29, 2004

Yeah, I'll toss mine in too, what the hell. Panthers Under MVP: John Kasay. I don't think anyone else has picked him, so why the hell not.

posted by Ufez Jones at 04:08 PM on January 29, 2004

garfield: no, I meant are you kidding that you are copying my picks? and grum: a little more Steve Smith for you.....

posted by smithers at 05:08 PM on January 29, 2004

....and so i don't look like a total jackass (just haven't been lurking as much, and only can sneak away to post at short intervals. please be excusing me) I'll take the over.

posted by garfield at 05:24 PM on January 29, 2004

and grum: a little more Steve Smith for you..... I told you he would be important! Oh wait...the video game. Nevermind.

posted by grum@work at 09:09 PM on January 29, 2004

hal what's the tally? 1011 spofites for the panthers and me and bryant for the pats? ;)

posted by jerseygirl at 10:46 PM on January 29, 2004

jerseygirl: hal what's the tally? Ugh, been a busy week at work- busy two weeks, really. I will sincerely get some kind of tally up either Friday night or on Saturday morning.

posted by hincandenza at 01:28 AM on January 30, 2004

Isn't it weird, JG? I can't remember the last time a Boston sports team was the consensus hated favorite. Would that be the Celtics in the 80s... at least I know I hated them (damn success).

posted by trox at 08:50 AM on January 30, 2004