January 18, 2004

Week 3 SpoFi NFL picks are complete!!!
SpoFi once again showed its Borg Collective brilliance, picking "Pats and Cats" more than any other combo. Eight of us can boast we went 2 for 2 this weekend, and 4 now stand tall with 8 of 10 picks through the first 3 weeks. However 12 more are within 1 or 2 points, and with the Superbowl being a triple pick in two weeks, it's still anyone's game.

Congrats also to the Patriots and Panthers, who will meet in two Sundays at Houston to play for the Lombardi trophy. [More Inside]

posted by hincandenza to navel gazing at 09:45 PM - 59 comments

Here are the final results from this weekend (see also my user page). Let me know if there are any errors, etc.

Spofite Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Total IND@NE CAR@PHI
jeffmshaw 3 4 1 8 NE PHI
NoMich 3 4 1 8 IND CAR
trox 4 3 1 8 IND CAR
hincandenza 3 3 2 8 NE CAR
jasonspaceman 4 3 0 7 IND PHI
msacheson 3 3 1 7 NE PHI
wfrazerjr 3 3 1 7 NE PHI
86 3 2 2 7 NE CAR
Billsaysthis 2 3 2 7 NE CAR
Bryant 3 2 2 7 NE CAR
Jerseygirl 2 3 2 7 NE CAR
danostuporstar 4 2 0 6 IND PHI
smithers 3 2 1 6 NE PHI
Ufez Jones 3 2 1 6 IND CAR
Corpse 1 3 2 6 NE CAR
pivo 2 2 2 6 NE CAR
forksclovetofu 3 2 0 5 IND PHI
taupe 1 2 2 5 NE CAR
Goddam 0 4 0 4 IND PHI
rocketman 2 2 0 4 IND PHI
grum@work 1 2 1 4 IND CAR
vito90 2 1 0 3 (DNP)
jacknose (DNP) 2 0 2 (DNP)
garfield (DNP) (DNP) 0 0 IND PHI
Now, onto the discussion: what did we think of the games, and what are the three picks for Superbowl weekend?

posted by hincandenza at 09:49 PM on January 18, 2004

FYI, for those who forgot, the three pick items for the Superbowl, as defined by the great and wise forksclovestofu, were:

  1. Winner: (pick either the New England Patriots or Carolina Panthers)
  2. Over/Under: (Simply Over, or Under, as a choice- see footnote below)
  3. MVP: The particular individual who will be awarded the MVP at the end of the game (invariably from the winning team)
SpoFi needs to decide the issue of MVP, over/under, and possible ties: For MVP, I'd presume that in the unlikely but possible case of a co-MVP, if you picked any of the players who share the co-MVP (for example, like Jerseygirl might if she picks Ty Law, and he ends up sharing the MVP with Tom Brady), you should get the point regardless. For Over/Under, we need to decide what the actual over/under is (do we use the vegas odds, or come up with our own) and what to do if the over/under is hit directly. Does that pick get forfeited for everyone, as would typically happen in regular betting, or do we pick either over/under as including the line itself? For Ties, at the end of the day, there's a very good chance we'll still have a tie. The tiebreaker should be something like whomever had a 4-4 weekend, or failing that whomever had 3+ for both of the first two weekends, etc. Any good ideas? Strategy: Because it's a 3-way pick, you can certainly hedge your bet by picking the Patriots to win, but then picking an MVP like Manning or Delhomme from the Panthers. Depending on your place in the standings, you might want to either hedge your bets to ensure that you get 1 or more points even if you can't get all 3, just to hold a lead, or put it all on the line in hopes of jumping ahead.
Note on "Over/Under": for those not familiar with over/under betting, it's not betting on a spread or a particular winner, but rather that the combined point total of both teams will be either over, or under the point total specified. So regardless of who wins or loses (Patriots 24-13, say, or Carolina 23-14) if the over/under is "38", and you pick "UNDER", you win, because the combined score is less than "38". If you pick "OVER", you lose. If they combine to score 50 points however, then the "OVER" bet wins. If the score ends up being the actual over/under- in this case if the teams combine to score exactly 38- it's called a "push" and is a null bet.
As always, I'm here to fulfill all your anal retentive needs. :D

posted by hincandenza at 10:28 PM on January 18, 2004

1. Patriots 2. ??? 3. Profit Couldn't resist. MVP will be Brady, as the secondary won't be such a busy unit againts the Panthers. I'll get back to #2 when the point is set, obviously (but I'll probably take the under). As a suggestion, to avoid a push on the over/under, set the point total on a half point, i.e. 33.5 points.

posted by pivo at 11:23 PM on January 18, 2004

Considering I went 2 for 6 the last two weeks, my misspelled ass feels neither great nor wise. But FWIW IMHO BBQ: RE: MVP- In the case of a co-MVP, if you pick either one you get the point. RE:Over under- I think Vegas odds are the way to go... probably a line as of the end of this week? Suggestions on this? If we push, I say free point to everyone. That way, we all have one bet we can root for together. In any case, I'd wait to post your guesses until after we can post official odds here. RE: Ties- Here's a suggestion for two tiebreakers: along with your picks, also post if you think there will be an overtime or no overtime AS WELL AS the winning team's score. Unless there's a tie, these picks will have no bearing on points. BUT if there is a tie for first, we FIRST go by the OT or no OT as a tiebreaker (if you feel lucky, betting the unlikely OT could put you over the top... or it could knock you out). But if that DOESN'T clear up the problem, we take anyone standing from that first tie breaker and then go by whoever's guess at the winning team's score (REGARDLESS of which team wins) is closest to the genuine article. Again, if you guess wrong on the OT, you're out of the tie. If you guess right, but so does someone else, then it comes down to who's closer on the winning team's final score. If EVERYONE guesses wrong on the OT, then we just go to the second tiebreaker. That should throw enough kinks in the garden hose to clear up any logjams and fricassee any errant metaphors and all that jazz. /just a few suggestions. let me know what you think BTW: Still 100%... but then, it IS how he makes his living...

posted by forksclovetofu at 11:24 PM on January 18, 2004

I'd suggest using Danny Sheridan's line out of Vegas. It's posted in the USA Today. We need to set a date to finalize the number, however, as it changes from day-to-day. How about the Wednesday before th Bowl? Any piece of the MVP gets a win. Tiebreaker could be guessing who scores the first touchdown of the game. That's always a fun side bet. Or a Royal Rumble. Either way.

posted by wfrazerjr at 09:41 AM on January 19, 2004

I should have went who I wanted to lose instead I got caught up in wanting a Colts/Eagles Bowl game as my father is the Colts fan and my future bro-in-law's favorite team is the Eagles. That would have made for an interesting Super Bowl party. Oh well.

posted by jasonspaceman at 06:13 PM on January 19, 2004

I'm picking the Panthers, of course MVP will be DeShaun Foster. I don't know what the line on the over/under is yet, but I'm almost certainly taking under.

posted by corpse at 09:54 AM on January 20, 2004

Patriots. I'd like the Panthers to win, and will be rooting for them (I'm a sucker for the underdog) -- but the two games I've missed so far have been "bet with your heart, not your head" games. MVP: Tom Brady. He may not be the most important factor in the Pats' win, but he's telegenic and a QB. Like corpse says, I'm taking the under unless the under turns out to be "seven."

posted by jeffmshaw at 11:11 AM on January 20, 2004

Panthers: Because I have no good reason. Steve Smith: Again, no good reason. Over: Unless it's above 31.5, in which case I'll take the under.

posted by grum@work at 12:11 PM on January 20, 2004

I still can't believe the pasting the Cats put on McNabb--he's gonna be in the jacuzzi until mini-camp. I'm reserving my predictions until the rest of you losers show your hands.

posted by billsaysthis at 02:28 PM on January 20, 2004

my hand remains unchanged: patriots.

posted by jerseygirl at 03:04 PM on January 20, 2004

I was freezing my ass off camping in a tent surrounded with snow on the first week of the playoffs, so I'm the guy showing up sober after everyone's been trashed for hours. Oh well, these are for trash talking purposes only: Panthers: Tom Brady spent the week applauding Bush, invoking negative karma, the Football Gods or bad Juju, depending on your religion. Delhomme: because the guy with a name that translates to "Jack of the Man" is a winner in my book. Over: there's no snow in Houston.

posted by dusted at 11:20 PM on January 23, 2004

I like the way the NFL is pandering to Aerosmith on the roof open/close question. Just goes to show that Rock Rulez!

posted by billsaysthis at 12:35 PM on January 24, 2004

Panthers: Panthers : 2003-4 :: Patriots : 2001-2. Rod Smart (!!!!). Why not. Under (as a differentiator).

posted by taupe at 01:21 PM on January 24, 2004

So we going with Wednesday's over/under?

posted by Bryant at 10:59 AM on January 26, 2004

I don't know what any of this means: Panthers Steve Smith Under

posted by rocketman at 01:05 PM on January 26, 2004

The line I'm seeing consistently is 38. So I'm going to say that's our line, yes? Panthers - Picked against them the whole way and they beat me every time. Plus I don't like the Pats. Davis for MVP Under.

posted by forksclovetofu at 02:05 PM on January 26, 2004

Patriots. Brady is the inevitable MVP. Over.

posted by Bryant at 07:06 PM on January 26, 2004

Patriots, obviously. I can't decide between Brady, Faulk and Law for MVP. over.

posted by jerseygirl at 07:45 PM on January 26, 2004

Carolina Manning Jr.: he's a rookie that stays in one of those unconscious zones and becomes the feel-good story---2 more INTs for him. Under

posted by smithers at 07:52 PM on January 26, 2004

Over Under is 38. I'm still sticking with Under.

posted by corpse at 10:44 AM on January 27, 2004

When is the official call for picks? Will it be a front page or lockerroom post?

posted by grum@work at 12:32 PM on January 27, 2004

Strange as this sounds, I'd go with the over because of the terrific defenses playing and their penchant for generating huge turn overs. MVP - Manning Panthers.

posted by garfield at 01:44 PM on January 27, 2004

garfield: are you kidding me?

posted by smithers at 07:24 PM on January 27, 2004

ok, now i am confused. someone explain the over under?

posted by jerseygirl at 08:29 PM on January 27, 2004

Vegas chooses a number (like 38). You have to guess whether the combined score of the two teams is OVER that amount (say, 27-17 final score) or UNDER that amount (say, 17-10 final score). It doesn't matter who wins, only the combined number of points is what they are looking at.

posted by grum@work at 10:34 PM on January 27, 2004


posted by jerseygirl at 05:17 AM on January 28, 2004

I suppose as long as we're asking questions, is there even a player named "Steve Smith" on the Panthers? I thought he was a receiver or running back (some offensive player), but I haven't been paying very close attention to this stuff.

posted by rocketman at 07:29 AM on January 28, 2004

rocketman, he's their best wide receiver.

posted by billsaysthis at 12:19 PM on January 28, 2004

i've been picking against both these teams all post season (except for carolina in week 1). the difference has been i've actually thought the pathers would lose while i just wanted the patriots to lose. so it's taken awhile to decide whether to follow the head or the heart in this final round. i've chosen heart...it's what makes sports fun. panthers.  stephen davis.  under.

posted by danostuporstar at 03:00 PM on January 28, 2004

did we pick a tiebreaker?

posted by forksclovetofu at 07:27 PM on January 28, 2004

Panthers MVP: Delhomme Over

posted by jasonspaceman at 08:54 PM on January 28, 2004

did we pick a tiebreaker? penalty yards: closest w/o going over. general product category of funniest commercial. yardage of longest kick return; yardage of longest play from scrimmage. spofite with the lowest total score.

posted by danostuporstar at 09:22 PM on January 28, 2004

why do a lot of people hate the patriots?

posted by jerseygirl at 09:55 PM on January 28, 2004

the patriots make the baby jebus cry, jerseygal.

posted by billsaysthis at 10:01 PM on January 28, 2004

It's probably because they're the favorite, and if you're not a fan of either team, you automatically root for the dog.

posted by dusted at 11:13 PM on January 28, 2004

And plus, has any team, in any sport, ever, made a turnaround like the cats have? They have shamed every mediocre team in the NFL (of which there are plenty) and it'd be great to see them finish. Plus, Brady is a dirty, blood-sucking Republican. Grrrrrr.

posted by Ufez Jones at 11:44 PM on January 28, 2004

they beat my team jg. I'm honor bound to dislike them.

posted by forksclovetofu at 02:04 AM on January 29, 2004

I suppose as long as we're asking questions, is there even a player named "Steve Smith" on the Panthers? I believe he's the wide receiver who caught the overtime touchdown pass to knock out the Rams.

posted by grum@work at 07:35 AM on January 29, 2004

apparently brady isnt a republican, much to my relief.

posted by jerseygirl at 07:52 AM on January 29, 2004

Thanks grum@. I've never won awards for paying attention.

posted by rocketman at 09:13 AM on January 29, 2004

It's okay, rocketman. My logic for choosing him is that the hockey player with the same name was notorious for losing a very important hockey game because of a blunder. I'm hoping that karmic payback will be that his football counterpart will be the hero in a very important football game.

posted by grum@work at 09:41 AM on January 29, 2004

Holy shit grum, it could happen: Steve Smith wears a PRIME NUMBER!!

posted by smithers at 10:19 AM on January 29, 2004

Isn't it weird, JG? I can't remember the last time a Boston sports team was the consensus hated favorite.

posted by Bryant at 02:11 PM on January 29, 2004

Picks (a little late, but in time hopefully): Panthers MVP: S. Davis Under

posted by trox at 03:58 PM on January 29, 2004

Yeah, I'll toss mine in too, what the hell. Panthers Under MVP: John Kasay. I don't think anyone else has picked him, so why the hell not.

posted by Ufez Jones at 04:08 PM on January 29, 2004

garfield: are you kidding me? nope. just hoping for a repeat performance from the best small CB i've seen in a while. speaking of CBs, when was the last time such dominating performances by CBs have resulted in their respective team making an SB appearance?

posted by garfield at 04:55 PM on January 29, 2004

garfield: no, I meant are you kidding that you are copying my picks? and grum: a little more Steve Smith for you.....

posted by smithers at 05:08 PM on January 29, 2004

oh shit...honest mistake. Here's to us!

posted by garfield at 05:21 PM on January 29, 2004

....and so i don't look like a total jackass (just haven't been lurking as much, and only can sneak away to post at short intervals. please be excusing me) I'll take the over.

posted by garfield at 05:24 PM on January 29, 2004

Isn't it weird, JG? I can't remember the last time a Boston sports team was the consensus hated favorite. it is. i feel like a Yankee fan.

posted by jerseygirl at 08:42 PM on January 29, 2004

and grum: a little more Steve Smith for you..... I told you he would be important! Oh wait...the video game. Nevermind.

posted by grum@work at 09:09 PM on January 29, 2004

Panthers Jake Delhomme Over Because I love to be different...except somewhat the same.

posted by billsaysthis at 10:10 PM on January 29, 2004

hal what's the tally? 1011 spofites for the panthers and me and bryant for the pats? ;)

posted by jerseygirl at 10:46 PM on January 29, 2004

i haven't been following the ins and outs (ie I missed out on the beginning of this NFL playoff pool)... but i'll say Pats. with TY Law as MVP. Over

posted by gspm at 01:15 AM on January 30, 2004

jerseygirl: hal what's the tally? Ugh, been a busy week at work- busy two weeks, really. I will sincerely get some kind of tally up either Friday night or on Saturday morning.

posted by hincandenza at 01:28 AM on January 30, 2004

was more sarcastic jab at the picks than "hey, get the lead out, hal!" whenever you can do it is cool. no pressure :)

posted by jerseygirl at 03:34 AM on January 30, 2004

Isn't it weird, JG? I can't remember the last time a Boston sports team was the consensus hated favorite. Would that be the Celtics in the 80s... at least I know I hated them (damn success).

posted by trox at 08:50 AM on January 30, 2004

For those still reading this thread- have continued the SB Picks thread in a new post, here.

posted by hincandenza at 02:46 PM on January 31, 2004

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