June 06, 2006

Who Will Win the World Cup?: Decision Technology reckon they can help you decide who to put your money on. For all you number bods out there [.pdf].

posted by JJ to soccer at 09:41 AM - 16 comments

All I know is win or lose I'll be telling people I'm Canadian when I go to Italy later this month... Interesting article, eh?

posted by MW12 at 09:57 AM on June 06, 2006

Meant to include this link too.

posted by JJ at 10:05 AM on June 06, 2006

All I know is win or lose I'll be telling people I'm Canadian when I go to Italy later this month... Not neccessary. Really. :D unless you're looking to avoid discussion of politics...

posted by romakimmy at 10:40 AM on June 06, 2006

If I were a gambling man I'd be backing Brazil. But I'm not so I'll save my money and spend it down the pub watching the footie instead. Statisticians can make even a subject like the World Cup seem dry.

posted by squealy at 10:42 AM on June 06, 2006

Tom: Now let's look at the crew a little. Man 2: They're a colorful bunch. They've been dubbed "the Three Musketeers". Heh heh heh -- Tom: And we laugh legitimately. There's a mathematician, a different kind of mathematician, and a statistician.

posted by qbert72 at 10:49 AM on June 06, 2006

87.9% of statisticians can make even a subject like the World Cup seem dry.

posted by JJ at 11:15 AM on June 06, 2006

not the u.s. does anybody care?

posted by chiefff at 12:41 PM on June 06, 2006

not the u.s. does anybody care? Pretty much everyone in the world cares outside the US and Canada.

posted by v3rity at 01:26 PM on June 06, 2006

I'm not sure if anyone cares, Chieff, let's ask the estimated 1.3 billion people who watched the 2002 final. I wonder how long these boffins sat in a room to come up with Brazil having the best chance to win the cup? It took me about eight seconds, six of which were spent finding a pencil.

posted by Mr Bismarck at 01:27 PM on June 06, 2006

82.4% of stats are made up on the spot anyway.

posted by Debo270 at 01:54 PM on June 06, 2006

"Decision Technology is a part-academic, part-commercial research group dedicated to the study of human decision-making and the development of any associated practical applications." The World Cup factors into this how? Aside from the blatant publicity mongering of course.

posted by billsaysthis at 02:54 PM on June 06, 2006

What's the definition of an extroverted mathematician? He looks at your shoes when he's talking to you.

posted by owlhouse at 02:46 AM on June 07, 2006

The World Cup factors into this how? Sorry, I probably didn't post this overly well. They've been "predicting" scores and placing bets on the Premiership (when they think the bookies have miss-priced scorelines) for a few years now. Last year they placed about 100 bets and their rate of return was about 1.20 per 1 spent (they don't divulge how much they're spending). Using the same methodology, they have (burried within the link I posted in the thread instead of the FPP) scoreline predictions for all the games in the tournament. And it presented owlhouse with an opportunity for a good gag.

posted by JJ at 04:02 AM on June 07, 2006

Wonderful....looking at the in-depth numbers, even if the USA makes it out of the Group Stage (only a 48+% chance) they will most likely meet Brazil in the secong round, then Spain in the quarters, then Germany in the semi's, not sure how they also most likely meet Germany in the finals as well, but that is what the numbers say....

posted by elovrich at 10:09 PM on June 07, 2006

20% ROI is pretty good if they can sustain it over time.

posted by billsaysthis at 11:51 PM on June 07, 2006

Throw all the stats out the window. It will be England hoisting the Jules Rimet trophy in Berlin on July 9th. Rule Britannia!!!

posted by fowler11 at 08:48 AM on June 08, 2006

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