12/26/24
February 14, 2006
Who is the Yankees best lead-off hitter?: Tom Verducci thinks Jeter should bat ahead of Damon.
posted by BullpenPro to baseball at 11:58 AM - 24 comments
I'm a Red Sox fan and I am waving the white flag. Damon over Jeter.
posted by jerseygirl at 12:02 PM on February 14, 2006
With the exception of the "Damon will see his stats slip now that he's leaving Fenway" fallacy, this is a pretty good article. Now that they have Damon, I'd put him in the leadoff spot, but it's nice to see someone acknowledging things like this... Jeter was an excellent leadoff man, and noone ever really seemed to be totally content with it. So many "experts" proclaimed after the Damon overpaying that "now Jeter can slide back into his natural #2 slot"... which then slides the OBP machines Giambi and ARod (and Matsui and Sheff) back another slot in the order. Some people even went as far as to say that the Damon signing filled one of the Yankees' desperate needs, for a leadoff hitter, when in fact the real weakness was CF defense, which was improved (but not substantially). I don't necessarily buy into the left-right-left-right rotation argument (I think that stuff is overrated, though actually Damon can be made to look foolish against good lefties, as well as good righty sliders) but all the OBP stuff is correct, and OBP is the single most important thing for the guy getting the most PAs to have. Damon's no slouch, so I'm not complaining, but in an ideal world I'd rather have seen them get a cheaper, younger CF who would bat 8 or 9, and then put one of the other OBP machines in the 2 slot. Everyone hated it when ARod hit there, but I thought it was a great idea... why not get your best hitter more at bats? I think Giambi would be an awesome choice for the 2 slot too, with the only drawback being his speed potentially taking some extra bases and/or RBIs from the guy behind him. The other thing I don't like about Jeter returning to #2 is that he hits an awful lot of ground balls... the most in the league, I think. And while he has the speed to beat a lot of DPs out, he'll almost certainly see his GIDP totals skyrocket now. Which is certain to mean I'll be breaking quite a bit of furniture this season.
posted by Bernreuther at 12:16 PM on February 14, 2006
With regards to the claim that the lineup has far less to do with runs than you'd think, I think he's right, but he's also right that you should take advantage of whatever edge you can give yourself. I'm sure Neyer and other statheads can produce lots of stats about run generation and the low variance there is between different lineups. I think this year Damon-Jeter-Giambi-ARod-Sheff is probably the best way to do it. In the coming years, as Damon starts to decline (I believe that he has already peaked and that this signing will be acceptable for a maximum of two years before they face the same problem, an overpaid liability in CF), then it could become a problem.
posted by Bernreuther at 12:20 PM on February 14, 2006
Giambi is like a box of chocolates (appropriate on Valentine's). I'm afraid he may slide way down the lineup as the year progresses.
posted by Bill Lumbergh at 12:29 PM on February 14, 2006
Maybe he'll tail off as the year progresses like he did last year... when he was the most productive hitter in all of baseball after May 1. This year he's going in healthy and strong. I'll take it. As long as he plays 1B and not DH (he has an unbelievable drop in stats from one to the other, all through his career), he's a solid bet for 35-100 with a .400+ OBP. Anyway, that's off topic. Suffice it to say I'm not as afraid as you are. I'm much more afraid about the pitching staff.
posted by Bernreuther at 12:38 PM on February 14, 2006
it won't matter in home games.damon's arm will more than offset his offense.
posted by lightning at 12:41 PM on February 14, 2006
1-Damon-8
2-Jeter-6
3-Rodriguez-5
4-Sheffield-9
5-Giambi-3
6-Matsui-7
7-Williams-DH
8-Posada-2
9-Cano-4
This line-up is amazing... look at the speed at 1,2 and 9 - and the solid power at the middle!
I like having Alex at third, since he is your best hitter, protected by Sheffield and then Giambi...etc.
You could place Giambi to 3rd, but that would take up speed from the top of the order, I like him better backing up Sheffield. Bernie and Posada could flip flop, but since BW will mostly DH, he should be well rested and post better numbers than Posada and be more effective backing up the lefty Matsui...also making a toughmatchup for Managers since he can hit both ways! -- Cano is your obvious last hitter...speedy and smart!
posted by zippinglou at 12:49 PM on February 14, 2006
I think if you flop Bernie and Posada that's the most likely lineup. I think I prefer it this way, but also putting Giambi at 3. And I think I agree about Damon's arm.
posted by Bernreuther at 12:50 PM on February 14, 2006
It's pretty much like having two number one hitters in the lineup. Jeter's got one of the best on-base percentages in them game, but his hits/walks just about mirror those of Damon. I only hope batting second doesn't mess up Jeter too much, because he does like to swing pretty freely.
posted by dyams at 01:22 PM on February 14, 2006
Great points all around. The Yankee lineup has been terrifying for years now, their problem is the starters. If all those guys perform up to their best, it'll be another AL East title going away. If not, it could get hairy in the Bronx. Think Clemens will ride in on a pinstriped horse to save the day?
posted by Venicemenace at 01:24 PM on February 14, 2006
off topic Wow, a Bernreuther sighting! /off topic
posted by NoMich at 01:34 PM on February 14, 2006
NO, Roger Clemens will only be seen wearing a Houston Astros jersey...the Yankees need pitching...it doesn't matter who's in that lineup...from the last couple of World Series winners have had good lineups, but they've gotten the W based on their pitching staffs... And looking at the Yankees...Johnson is old, Mussina is getting there in years...and the rest of that rotation is kinda scary...but we'll see what happens in the end...
posted by chemwizBsquared at 01:53 PM on February 14, 2006
This is some interesting stuff. I had taken it for granted that Damon leads off and Jeter hits second. Now I'm not so sure. Their baserunning is nearly identical, so that isn't a factor. However, Jeter strikes out more (averages 116 per year to Damon's 73 per year). This is unproductive with a runner on first. Also, Jeter hits into 15 GIDPs per year to Damon's 6. This is worse than unproductive. Jeter, followed by Damon, sounds better and better.
posted by drevl at 02:04 PM on February 14, 2006
Didn't realize I was missed.... baseball season and Yankees threads will always bring me out of the woodwork (though I was around a bit for threads about the Colts due to my newfound closeness with that team). That, and they stopped websensing us at work.
posted by Bernreuther at 03:17 PM on February 14, 2006
I'd bet its typical Torre. I'm sure he has all of these stats and more. I've heard that Jeter prefers batting 2 and I'd guess that Damon prefers to lead-off. He's probably just putting them in positions where they will be most comfortable. The lineup above is cool, especially if you do swap Williams/Posada. I'd have to see consistent production from Giambi to even think about batting him 3rd.
posted by sfts2 at 03:39 PM on February 14, 2006
The line up is great, but even though Jeter prefers the 2 spot and Damon has openly stated he likes lead-off (remember all his interviews as soon as he signed!) the stats always are a big part of what Torre does. I'd have to say that it's going to be Jeter, Damon, A-Rod, Sheffield, Giambi, then flip Bernie and Matsui, Posada, Cano.
posted by djchippy99 at 11:54 AM on February 15, 2006
Torre plays numbers, but he is not a Roto player. He has managed to keep a clubhouse full of egos from becoming the top story for 10 years, and he will continue to do that. Jeter's decrease in production at the #2 spot is NOT because he is uncomfortable in that slot. It is because he knows exactly what the role of a #2 hitter is, and he does it about as well as anybody I've seen. With a legitmate leadoff guy in Damon on board, you are going to see this scenario a lot: Damon gets on, steals second, and Jeter grounds a ball to the right side. Sometimes that will be a groundout, sometimes it will go through for an RBI single. He sacrifices his numbers in the 2 hole by doing just this kind of thing. Jeter -- or perhaps Yankee fans -- get derided on Spo-Fi with sarcastic shouting of "Captain Intangibles" -- outside of that one crazy Jeremy Giambi play, a lot of that comes from Jeter's performance as the 2-man. That said, if Torre is even contemplating flipping Damon and Jeter, he won't do it Opening Day. Torre knows that if the Yanks get off to a bad start (like last year) and guys have been batting out of position then things are going to get ugly in the clubhouse and the papers pretty quickly. Torre will only do the flip if and when the Yankees start struggling and he needs to try a change.
posted by BullpenPro at 01:10 PM on February 15, 2006
As far as Verducci's view on the importance of the batting order: it reminds me of the story about Billy Martin, who, in the midst of a losing streak in '77, once picked his lineup out of a hat. Many of the Hall of Fame managers will tell you that they had little impact on their own success -- they had great players, and they just wrote their names down. That said, I'm not sure exactly what Verducci is talking about (whether he means decisions like flipping Jeter and Damon don't mean much, or if he means you could pick any lineup out of a hat every day and have roughly the same result as a more "logical" lineup), but I bet the Cardinals would be a whole lot worse if they regularly batted Pujols in the #1 slot, even if it did mean that he got a few more at bats. There is reason in the way lineups are set, and while it may not be worth "reams of copy," it is certainly a difference maker in a team's performance.
posted by BullpenPro at 01:25 PM on February 15, 2006
I bet the Cardinals would be a whole lot worse if they regularly batted Pujols in the #1 slot Not necessarily: if they had a weak offensive team, it might make sense to get him the extra at bat a game. Statistics suggest lineup order has little effect on a team's offensive output. Mainly because even the best offensive players fail 60% of the time.
posted by yerfatma at 01:30 PM on February 15, 2006
I would put damon 1st, jeter 2nd and flip flop cano to 8 and posada to 9.......o.k. that settled how about pitching rotation.............................and let the discussion begin!!!!!
posted by Grrrlacher at 02:07 PM on February 15, 2006
"you are going to see this scenario a lot: Damon gets on, steals second, and Jeter grounds a ball to the right side." Well, you might see it twenty times or so. Damon isn't the base stealer he used to be...
posted by Venicemenace at 02:21 PM on February 15, 2006
That remains to be seen, Venice. Has Johnny slowed down or was it simply the Sox Stealing Shackles that slowed his success?
posted by yerfatma at 05:26 PM on February 15, 2006
Not necessarily: if they had a weak offensive team, it might make sense to get him the extra at bat a game. I didn't mean a theoretical Cards club, I meant the clubs that have existed in the "Pujols Era" -- I don't think any of them can be called a "weak offensive team." It would be interesting to see what would happen if you did it with the "Speed-plus-Jack-Clark" clubs of the '80s, if you replaced Clark with Pujols. I still assert that it would hurt the run production of the club significantly. Has Johnny slowed down or was it simply the Sox Stealing Shackles that slowed his success? Probably a combination. Venice is probably right that 20 is a reasonable guess for this exact scenario -- I consider that "a lot" for one scenario through a season. Your mileage may vary.
posted by BullpenPro at 06:38 PM on February 15, 2006
I realize this could easily deteriorate into another Yankees/Red Sox bash-a-thon, but objectively how would you set your lineup? And, additionally, how would you respond to Verducci's claim that "the batting order has far less impact on how many runs a team scores than the reams of copy devoted to it would have you believe?"