December 08, 2003

The only way dealing A-Rod works in the Rangers' favor is if the team does something intelligent with the money. Given their recent history with other signings, what are the odds of that happening? They need to keep A-Rod and find a way to put a team around him. Dealing him strictly for monetary reasons is a mistake of Ruthian proportions.

posted by rcade at 03:43 PM on December 08, 2003

What has A-Rod ever won? Piling up great stats on bad teams does not necessarily make a winner. IMO he's not worth the money - I'd rather have a player like Jeter who's actually got a ring and knows how to win. I don't even know where to start on this one. Your reasoning hurts baby jesus.

posted by jerseygirl at 03:52 PM on December 08, 2003

I've never witnessed A-Rod play. That's to say, I've never been to a game he played in, never listened on the radio, etc. I have seen his name written up in the paper, mentioned prominently in the sports section, but it's almost always in connection to his salary, the quality of the Rangers, and the possibility that he'd want to be traded. With only this information, it seems to me that the size of his contract is largely due to the hype, and that no, he's not worth 25mil a year. I don't begrudge him the money.

posted by rocketman at 04:19 PM on December 08, 2003

rcade: Agreed. The Park signing has done more to cripple Texas than anything else. Another thing to consider along the same lines: if Tom Hicks didn't offer A-Rod twice what anyone else did, we wouldn't be having this discussion right now. We'd be marvelling at the bargain he represents.
yerfatma: true, lineups (generally) don't affect the performance of individual players. What I meant was that this type of analysis doesn't take into account the non-linear effects on team run output -- that is, what happens when you combine particular players into a certain team.
In short, I think WARP is a ham-fisted metric that tries to oversimply a pretty complicated interplay of factors. Some players get high WARP ratings because of exceptionally high on-base percentage; some because of Bill James' speed rating system; some are balanced players. I suspect that certain team situations are more conducive to certain player types thriving than others. I also think that just looking at the WARP number precludes a more nuanced approach: you could put together a team of nine speedsters rated at 1 WARP, but a team with a more offensively balanced skillset might do better.
Stats and objective analysis are still extremely valuable and underutilized tools in baseball, but the linked article is an example of how basing conclusions solely on numbers can fail, I think. If the writer was trying to support his Option C (Nobody is really worth this much, but gosh, A-Rod is so great, he comes mighty close), I'd buy that. I think he overreaches with the "If I gave you $25 million a year to play with, you'd be better off taking A-Rod than jumping into the free-agent pool" line.

posted by jeffmshaw at 04:50 PM on December 08, 2003

Jeter's a good shortstop, but anyone who would take him over A-Rod has placed his brain on injured reserve. As for not knowing much about A-Rod, rocketman, if you're a fan of the game I don't see how you could be so unfamiliar with one of its top-5 players. Claiming that he's not worth his salary, when you admittedly have never watched him once, is a cheap shot.

posted by rcade at 05:05 PM on December 08, 2003

Yeah, because we all know the Yankees have never been a circus that took on high-priced players and all of their baggage. If A-Rod goes to the Sox, you'll be crying on the inside where it counts, brown bat.

posted by rcade at 05:46 PM on December 08, 2003

I've watched him plenty, rcade. I've yet to see him in the playoffs in a Rangers' uniform. He's not worth his salary. No one's worth that salary.

posted by wfrazerjr at 06:11 PM on December 08, 2003

What has me thinking without an answer is this question: Are the Sox better with ARod and a cheap outfielder and without Manny and Nomar? Do they need to make this move? Is Manny really that big a cancer? Manny was awesome last year, and that seems to be swept under the rug. Nomar has shown a bit of a decline, but is still solid. Is the improvement to the best in the world at short worth a big drop in the outfield? All that I have read shows that they'd make up for the larger salary by dumping Nomar and signing a somewhat cheap outfielder to keep the price overall the same. Now, it's obviously great to have ARod but does this improve the team that much? All I can think of is that they really hate Manny, and in getting rid of him they can also one up the Yankees in the papers. I don't think it helps them put any more runs across the plate. All sorts of pipe dreamers on the NYYFans board keep insisting that the Yankees are going to get ARod, though there has been no realistic mention of them even trying. (I personally don't want him and his monster salary, we've got a high enough payroll.) One particularly dim fellow thinks that the Sox will trade Manny and eat some of his salary (in effect payin 30 mill a year for ARod) and then the Yankees can trade Texas for Manny and get Texas to pick up even more of his salary - which is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. If they're not going to pay any of ARod's salary in a trade then why would they pay some of Manny's? They'd end up with the same net result, paying a few million to be rid of ARod. Anyway, I personally would like to see the deal with Boston happen. It won't really make them better but also won't make them worse, but I just love huge news and think it'd be cool to see. I also think trading Nomah to Anaheim in the AL would be a bad move - trade him to LA.

posted by Bernreuther at 06:43 PM on December 08, 2003

bern, I can't figure out what the real motivation is for the trade. I see the Manny aspect. He's always been "Manny being Manny", but this year may have been the breaking point for management. But I also understand that they've tried to negotiate with Nomar and that went absolutely no where (Nomar had a nice high Jeter-like pre market correction figure, and the Red Sox were thinking more... current). If after a couple times of negotiating, they got a feeling they wouldn't be able to do anything longterm with Nomar, they saw an opportunity with ARod. ARod's wife is from the Mission Hill area of Boston and he's been attributing with saying he's quite interested in coming to play in Boston. Maybe so much so that it's been speculated that this meeting ARod had with John Henry may have been about restructuring his contract or killing the last 3 years of his contract altogether. There was also some talk that the meeting may have been about ARod himself shouldering the "financial contribution" from Manny's contract that Texas wants the Red Sox to take on. This is Nomar's last year under his current contract. Trading him now would certainly be of more benefit to the team than letting him walk away in October, IF they couldn't work something realistic out. The rumors about the possible Nomar trade (and lately, I am still not sold on that happening) as repeated names like Glaus and Kennedy. I am interested quite a bit in Glaus, as I was in the GAnderson rumors too. Glaus and ARod would take a little bit of the sting out of Manny and Nomar, in my opinion. I don't think they are out to one-up the Yankees honestly. Theo said on the local sports radio station last week that doing that was a dangerous way to run a team, so at least they are aware of that and acknowledge that peril. I read that on the NYYFans board. The Red Sox aren't going to eat any of Manny's contract, and if by chance they did, I would not be surprised if there was some clause in the deal that voided any Red Sox contribution. Boston is sure as hell not going to pay Manny to play for the Yankees. I like the NYYFan board, even though it's a lot of hysteria and a lot of "WE NEED TO GET THIS GUY! COME ON GEORGE!" It gives me insight and I'm a regular reader, myself. They have quite a creative imagination. I liked the one where they wanted to get ARod and weren't sure what to do with him, but getting him was a MUST just to block Boston.

posted by jerseygirl at 07:02 PM on December 08, 2003

Yeah, because we all know the Yankees have never been a circus that took on high-priced players and all of their baggage. And when they were, and when they did, they paid for it, rcade. You're smart when you can learn from the mistakes of others, not so smart when you've got to make them all yourself. The Sox are showing themselves to be not so smart. If A-Rod goes to the Sox, you'll be crying on the inside where it counts, brown bat. I very much doubt I'll be crying at all, because I'm a fan of a team that doesn't have to have any one player to do well, or for whom the presence of one strong player on an opposing team means the kiss of death. That's what makes the Yankees a strong team. The Red Sox are coming closer, they have a lot of strong individuals, but they're not the strong team they should be. These are fundamentals, and you don't get there by going after a big-money player and at the same time undermining your star boy. Bad move, any way you look at it.

posted by lil_brown_bat at 08:02 PM on December 08, 2003

I'm a fan of a team that doesn't have to have any one player to do well If Rivera isn't around (injured), or goes into a slump, the yankees are done. So there's one player for you. That's what makes the Yankees a strong team. The Red Sox are coming closer, they have a lot of strong individuals, but they're not the strong team they should be. Well that's a whole lotta rhetoric backed up by nothing, isn't it? Not the strong team they should be? wtf? I'm not even sure what that means, but that team (in most people's opinion) should have been in the world series this year. That's strong enough. And now in the off season both teams are going after free agents left and right. One makes a move, the other reacts. You're the pot calling the kettle black.

posted by justgary at 09:10 PM on December 08, 2003

a player is worth what a team is willing to pay him. Sort of. Regarding A-Rod's "worth," there are two issues at play here: 1. His value as a player to the team he plays for, and 2. His contract's effect on that team (or the value the team gets for their money).
I don't hear anyone disputing that Alex is, at least, one of the two best players in baseball, so from that perspective, he's pretty valuable. Whether he is "worth $25 million" is up for debate.
What ISN'T up for debate, though, is that the Rangers could have had him for much less than they ultimately paid. I'm not "blaming" A-Rod for this -- I would have taken the money, too -- but I am saying that if Hicks had been savvier, he could have had Alex much cheaper. This means, in my view, the Rangers overspent.

posted by jeffmshaw at 09:29 PM on December 08, 2003

How has ARod improved this team? You're telling me the rest of the team has remained static during the period you mention? One imagines they would have been worse with any other shortstop in the game, given that A-Rod is the best. What's happened is the rest of the team started to suck worse. Now Texas wants to unload him so they can raise the average Suck Level of the roster. I doubt it'll make a bit of difference, but either way I fail to see A-Rod's complicity in this, except in the "bitch[ing]" you mention but do not provide reference to.

posted by yerfatma at 06:34 AM on December 09, 2003

is arod worth the money? well, i love BP, they do a great job of bringing to light aspects of the game forgotten by the general press, but i've got to disagree with them on the arod being worth every penny. arod is signed for a very long time folks.....and i know he projects *very* well and has a history of being durable.....but the environment that baseball has been working towards for the last 2 years and going forward into the future makes taking on his contract seem like going 'all in' on an at best risky hand. albert belle, mo vaughn.....these guys projected to be hall of famers too....and i'm not saying that arod is going down that road....but is it out of the realm of possibility? no. not at all. notice how those VORP lines from the last three years have bonds at the top of all three lists? everytime bonds steps to the plate is a meaningful at bat for his team. not to take anything away from arod's numbers but the guy hasn't had a meaningful at bat in *three years*. frankly, i just don't believe the hype. he's got the numbers but not outragously so that he deserves the money he's getting paid. i think the move to the sox would probably be a wash....and the risk is much heavier for the sox......so if i were the sox i probably wouldn't do it. if you wait a couple of years you'll get the next arod at a cheaper price and a reasonable contract. remember people, arod is signed for a lot longer than a couple of years.

posted by oliver_crunk at 08:28 AM on December 09, 2003

rcade: Most of the explanation you'd need is in this comment. I've only been following baseball for two years now, and in the media region for a small market team. Unless the Rangers come play the Brewers, I have to rely on ESPNradio SportsCenter, the newspaper, and what other people tell me. I admitted upfront I didn't have all the facts, just what I was able to observe. Nearly everything I've observed is hype. When I read A-Rod's name in the paper, it's not mentioned in connection with some phenomenal play. It's not mentioned in connection with pulling a late HR and giving Texas a victory. It's nearly always linked with his salary and a mention of his being considered "the best player in baseball". That's hype. I'm not getting a complete picture. But the incomplete picture I have tells me that he's not worth 25mil. But hey, maybe next spring I can come over to your place (or jerseygirl's?) and watch a game. I have nothing against him, have no axe to grind here (except against Bud), and I'd certainly be interested in seeing him play.

posted by rocketman at 08:48 AM on December 09, 2003

I think A-Rod is well worth it if the Sox pick him up and trade Nomar for the likes of Glaus or Washburn.

posted by jbou at 09:17 AM on December 09, 2003

you baseball fans like to argue. it's awesome.

posted by garfield at 09:57 AM on December 09, 2003

so if i were the sox i probably wouldn't do it. if you wait a couple of years you'll get the next arod at a cheaper price and a reasonable contract. remember people, arod is signed for a lot longer than a couple of years. You've got the right thinking, in a general baseball sense, but there's some issues with it specific to this instance. If it is true that the Red Sox came to the table to negotiate an extention twice with Nomar and Tellem, and both times Nomar came in with a much higher figure than the Red Sox were thinking, they have to move now. Nomar walks at the end of 04 if they don't sign him or move him. Who is the next arod in the meantime, while Nomar walks at the end of the season and the Red Sox missed the opportunity to get some warm bodies in exchange for him leaving? I think the Tejada and Kaz Matsui deals are a good barometer about where the market is now. Matsui gets 3ys/20m. Tejada, an MVP, gets approximately 8m/yr. Nomar, right now, makes 11.5m. He's a fantastic shortstop, but the market doesn't allow for much of an increase for him, based on Tejada and to a lesser extent, Matsui. He supposedly came to the table wanting 4yrs/60m. Nomar had a little media blitz yesterday to proclaim he wants to stay in Boston and he loves Boston. I believe that. But really, why do I think he did it? Because he and his manager realize he's not going to get any better money any where else. Market won't allow for it. Here's another twist and it's not likely, but it's something to ponder, especially if this Foulke deal doesn't happen (and the longer this goes on, the less likely i see it happening, IMO) and the money ear-marked for him is suddenly available. Say Nomar stays and moves to 3rd, agrees to a contract very similar to what he's making now. You put ARod at SS because he's a superior SS, and move Mueller to 2B as he's a natural 2B anyway. Now we're looking at an infield that has Ortiz/Millar at 1B, Mueller at 2B, Arod at SS, Nomar at 3B and Varitek behind the plate. It may be virtually impossible, but since we know nothing about what the Boston management is really doing, I like to keep that as a giddy pipedream in the back of my subconscious. Also, the possibility has been floated around that ARod would consider reconstructuring his contract, and even a more rare possibility - tearing it up altogether.

posted by jerseygirl at 10:06 AM on December 09, 2003

you'd get 2 quality pitchers, vlad, and whatever big name bat you want I was about to argue with that and then I realized you're right. There's one niggling other factor though: to be able to drop those kind of dollars, they need (supposedly) to get out from under Manny's contract. While A-Rod's is even heftier, he's an improvement over Manny. Waiting on the next A-Rod is easy to do. Finding and signing him is a bit tougher. And it may be 50 years before he arrives. And you don't need to apologize for being rude, especially if you don't feel bad about it. You're right, I don't. Sorry. In every baseball thread a bunch of people show up who either don't care or don't know about baseball and see fit to make broad proclamations. It bothers the crap out of me.

posted by yerfatma at 10:39 AM on December 09, 2003

I said it was rare. Reconstructing seems more likely. "The Boston Globe and Boston Herald, citing unidentified sources, reported that Red Sox owner John Henry had at least preliminary discussions with Rodriguez after being granted permission to do so. Reportedly, the two have a meeting scheduled for later this week, at which point they will discuss re-structuring the superstar shortstop's contract."

posted by jerseygirl at 10:54 AM on December 09, 2003

If Rivera isn't around (injured), or goes into a slump, the yankees are done. So there's one player for you. Cite? Let's see the links. That's what makes the Yankees a strong team. The Red Sox are coming closer, they have a lot of strong individuals, but they're not the strong team they should be. Well that's a whole lotta rhetoric backed up by nothing, isn't it? Not the strong team they should be? wtf? I'm not even sure what that means, Then I'll explain it to you. The Red Sox have many talented individuals, but collectively, they're a personality disco. You can hate the Yankees all you like, but when was the last time you heard a Yankee whining that he didn't get enough looooove? When was the last time you heard a Yankee finger-pointing at another part of the organization for why they didn't win? Let's see the links, if you got 'em. The Red Sox are twenty-five guys in twenty-five cabs. That, IMO, is the one thing they need to get over in order to be a truly great team. but that team (in most people's opinion) should have been in the world series this year. That's strong enough. Um, gee, so...if the Magic 8 Ball had spun the way it ought to have spun, they would have been in the series? To use your phrase, wtf? If they should have been in the series, why weren't they?

posted by lil_brown_bat at 12:33 PM on December 09, 2003

Yankee whining that he didn't get enough looooove? When was the last time you heard a Yankee finger-pointing at another part of the organization for why they didn't win? bwah.....are you serious? there's plenty of that stuff going on in every clubhouse in baseball. did ya read david wells book that came out earlier in the year? have you been living under a rock? the local papers in NYC thrive on the stuff you say doesn't exist on the yankees.....i'm sorry but your comment might be one of silliest things i've ever read on spofi. these overpaid little kids with big egos....nothing more and nothing less.... may i remind you're strong-bonded team has come up short three years running. if you want to talk about the glory years from 1996 to 2000 then you might have an argument but these yanks haven't accomplished anything and as far as i can tell aren't anymore of team than the sox or the rest of MLB.

posted by oliver_crunk at 01:02 PM on December 09, 2003

oliver already mentioned David Wells. There have been plenty of others. Did you forget Jeff Nelson's last time around with the team? Karim Garcia bitching most of the year? Shane Spenser thinking he was more valuable? Ricky Ledee was never quite happy either. The Red Sox are twenty-five guys in twenty-five cabs. FYI, that line referred to the 1986-90 edition. You might wanna check the date on your newspaper.

posted by yerfatma at 01:25 PM on December 09, 2003

This is also why seemingly no name people in Anaheim and Florida became great and won titles. And why big name people in Texas and San Francisco have been good, and not won titles.

posted by lilnemo at 01:48 PM on December 09, 2003

The Red Sox have many talented individuals, but collectively, they're a personality disco. You can hate the Yankees all you like, but when was the last time you heard a Yankee whining that he didn't get enough looooove? When was the last time you heard a Yankee finger-pointing at another part of the organization for why they didn't win? Let's see the links, if you got 'em. The Red Sox are twenty-five guys in twenty-five cabs. That, IMO, is the one thing they need to get over in order to be a truly great team. You're apparently watching a completely different league than the rest of us (and a different red sox team). Really, this has nothing to do with yankee hating. I just can't even imagine that you're being serious with those comments. Um, gee, so...if the Magic 8 Ball had spun the way it ought to have spun, they would have been in the series? To use your phrase, wtf? If they should have been in the series, why weren't they? Well, not to rehash an old subject, but I think its a pretty good concensus that it was a bad coaching decision that caused the loss. Oh, let me guess, you think leaving Pedro in was a good idea. OOk. Regardless, the loss had nothing to do with the sox not being a team. Again, I'm not sure you really watched this season.

posted by justgary at 02:26 PM on December 09, 2003

shit, i'm a die-hard yankee fan and even i give the sox props this year. i didn't follow them during the season but in the playoffs they seemed to be the more cohesive of the 2 teams, which made it very difficult to truly hate them. of course all that extra hatred i had for the team just spilled over to the bosox fans :-P as i've said before, the yankees were lucky to get into the WS this year.

posted by goddam at 03:07 PM on December 09, 2003

Does Boston really need a-rod? it's complicated. I've been following it for about 5 days now. There's a whole other matter that has nothing to do with A-Rod's value or this thread. i am going to try to put it together in some sort of sequence that makes sense, gather up some links and FPP it.

posted by jerseygirl at 10:12 PM on December 09, 2003