12/18/24
October 16, 2014
SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle:
A place to discuss the sports stories that aren't making news, share links that aren't quite front-page material, and diagram plays on your hand. Remember to count to five Mississippi before commenting in anger.
What makes it even crazier is that if St. Louis had a one-run lead going into the bottom of the 9th, they would have brought in Rosenthal/Maness/not-Wacha to pitch. Why do managers save better pitchers for when they have a 1/2/3 run lead in the 9th, instead of using them when they have absolutely no room for error (tied in the 9th)?
posted by grum@work at 11:41 PM on October 16, 2014
Baseball idiot here, but I've wondered the same thing. The team's "closer" only seems to be used in a save situation. Is it something to do with the coach and the player trying to pad the closer's save stats?
posted by owlhouse at 01:21 AM on October 17, 2014
The team's "closer" only seems to be used in a save situation. Is it something to do with the coach and the player trying to pad the closer's save stats?
It seems to be a "push-button managing" mentality where it is better to stick to some pattern and fail, than it is to try something new (or smart) and fail.
Since Tony LaRussa popularized the 9th inning "closer", who only comes in when the team is ahead by 1/2/3 runs to "close" the game, it seems that every manager needs to have a "closer" on their roster that they use the same way.
I'm sure the player likes having the stupid "save" stat padded (as they can then use it in arbitration negotiations or free agent contract talks), but other than moping about not being used for a save, the player really shouldn't have any say in it.
You would think that a manager/GM would break this cycle by utilizing their best pitchers in high leverage situations (tied in the bottom of the 9th is MUCH more important than ahead by 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th) and say to hell with the "save" stat. It would give them a better chance at winning more games AND would help reduce payroll costs because they don't feel the need to saddle themselves with an expensive "closer".
Here are a list of relief pitchers from just this season who could have easily played the role of a "closer" (> 20 saves) but were not used that way and were amazingly effective:
Rk Player ERA+ SV IP Age Tm ERA 1 Wade Davis 403 3 72.0 28 KCR 1.00 2 Aaron Sanchez 361 3 33.0 21 TOR 1.09 3 Drew Storen 340 11 56.1 26 WSN 1.12 4 Ken Giles 316 1 45.2 23 PHI 1.18 5 Dan Jennings 287 0 40.1 27 MIA 1.34 6 Kelvin Herrera 285 0 70.0 24 KCR 1.41 7 Dellin Betances 277 1 90.0 26 NYY 1.40 8 Neil Ramirez 266 3 43.2 25 CHC 1.44 9 Buddy Carlyle 243 0 31.0 36 NYM 1.45 10 Fernando Abad 238 0 57.1 28 OAK 1.57 11 Joaquin Benoit 225 11 54.1 36 SDP 1.49 12 Matt Thornton 224 0 36.0 37 TOT 1.75 13 Darren ODay 223 4 68.2 31 BAL 1.70 14 Tony Watson 219 2 77.1 29 PIT 1.63 15 Bryan Morris 207 0 64.1 27 TOT 1.82 16 Kyle Crockett 207 0 30.0 22 CLE 1.80 17 Santiago Casilla 204 19 58.1 33 SFG 1.70 18 Joe Smith 202 15 74.2 30 LAA 1.81 19 Neftali Feliz 198 13 31.2 26 TEX 1.99 20 Pat Neshek 197 6 67.1 33 STL 1.87 21 Jake McGee 197 19 71.1 27 TBR 1.89 22 Zach Putnam 197 6 54.2 26 CHW 1.98 23 Andrew Miller 192 1 62.1 29 TOT 2.02 24 Jared Hughes 183 0 64.1 28 PIT 1.96 25 A.J. Ramos 182 0 64.0 27 MIA 2.11 Rk Player ERA+ SV IP Age Tm ERA 26 Roman Mendez 181 0 33.0 23 TEX 2.18 27 Sam Dyson 179 0 42.0 26 MIA 2.14 28 Luke Gregerson 176 3 72.1 30 OAK 2.12 29 Tyler Clippard 174 1 70.1 29 WSN 2.18 30 Pedro Strop 173 2 61.0 29 CHC 2.21 31 Burke Badenhop 169 1 70.2 31 BOS 2.29 32 Dominic Leone 168 0 66.1 22 SEA 2.17 33 Joe Beimel 166 0 45.0 37 SEA 2.20 34 Dan Otero 163 1 86.2 29 OAK 2.28 35 Tom Wilhelmsen 161 1 79.1 30 SEA 2.27 36 Jonathan Broxton 160 7 58.2 30 TOT 2.30 37 Al Alburquerque 159 1 57.1 28 DET 2.51 38 Jeurys Familia 158 5 77.1 24 NYM 2.21 39 Blaine Hardy 158 0 39.0 27 DET 2.54 40 Brad Boxberger 158 2 64.2 26 TBR 2.37 41 Justin De Fratus 156 0 52.2 26 PHI 2.39 42 Zach Duke 155 0 58.2 31 MIL 2.45 43 Chad Jenkins 154 0 31.2 26 TOR 2.56 44 Jeremy Affeldt 152 0 55.1 35 SFG 2.28 45 Jason Frasor 150 0 47.1 36 TOT 2.66 46 J.P. Howell 147 0 49.0 31 LAD 2.39 47 Brett Cecil 145 5 53.1 27 TOR 2.70 48 Aaron Barrett 143 0 40.2 26 WSN 2.66 49 Dale Thayer 143 0 65.1 33 SDP 2.34 50 Cory Rasmus 142 0 56.0 26 LAA 2.57 Rk Player ERA+ SV IP Age Tm ERA 51 Sam Freeman 142 0 38.0 27 STL 2.61 52 Bryan Shaw 142 2 76.1 26 CLE 2.59 53 Shawn Tolleson 142 0 71.2 26 TEX 2.76 54 Evan Marshall 139 0 49.1 24 ARI 2.74 55 Kevin Jepsen 139 2 65.0 29 LAA 2.63 56 Jeremy Jeffress 138 0 32.0 26 TOT 2.81 57 T.J. McFarland 138 0 58.2 25 BAL 2.76 58 Anthony Varvaro 137 0 54.2 29 ATL 2.63 59 Danny Farquhar 137 1 71.0 27 SEA 2.66 60 Brandon League 136 0 63.0 31 LAD 2.57 61 Yoervis Medina 136 0 57.0 25 SEA 2.68 62 Junichi Tazawa 136 0 63.0 28 BOS 2.86 63 Vic Black 136 0 34.2 26 NYM 2.60 64 Kevin Quackenbush 135 6 54.1 25 SDP 2.48 65 Marc Rzepczynski 135 1 46.0 28 CLE 2.74 66 Jean Machi 134 2 66.1 32 SFG 2.58 67 Scott Atchison 134 2 72.0 38 CLE 2.75 68 Javy Guerra 134 1 46.1 28 CHW 2.91 69 Jake Petricka 131 14 73.0 26 CHW 2.96 70 Adam Warren 130 3 78.2 26 NYY 2.97 71 Oliver Perez 130 0 58.2 32 ARI 2.91 72 Eury De La Rosa 130 0 36.2 24 ARI 2.95 73 Tommy Hunter 128 11 60.2 27 BAL 2.97 74 James Russell 127 1 57.2 28 TOT 2.97 75 Seth Maness 126 3 80.1 25 STL 2.91 Rk Player ERA+ SV IP Age Tm ERA 76 Mike Morin 126 0 59.0 23 LAA 2.90 77 Jordan Walden 126 3 50.0 26 ATL 2.88 78 George Kontos 125 0 32.1 29 SFG 2.78
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/17/2014.
posted by grum@work at 08:12 AM on October 17, 2014
The team's "closer" only seems to be used in a save situation
It's one of those weird things in sports where it became accepted wisdom because a team succeeded with it and people made the logical leap to it being the reason they succeeded. And Tony LaRussa was never one to deny his own brilliance. The reality was the A's were a fantastic team top to bottom and had a closer on perhaps the best run in history (which The Eck punctuated in perfect Eck style by remarking at the end of the year, "Let's see some other motherfucker do that!"1). Like in every sport, once there's an accepted practice, it's used by lesser coaches as a CYA thing: "Sure it might have been stupid to not bring my closer in for the high-leverage situation that cost us the game, but The Book says not to do that on the road!"
Jonah Keri mentions it in his current article about the Giants manager Bruce Bochy, praising Bochy for using his bullpen in a retro way instead of hewing to Conventional Wisdom.
1. The top (only?) Google result for this possibly apocryphal story is me saying it 8 years ago, so don't take it as gospel
posted by yerfatma at 09:36 AM on October 17, 2014
The reality was the A's were a fantastic team top to bottom and had a closer on perhaps the best run in history (which The Eck punctuated in perfect Eck style by remarking at the end of the year, "Let's see some other motherfucker do that!"1).
His 1990 season is definitely the contender for "best season by a modern closer".
The only other ones that I would put up there would be:
- Fernando Rodney (2012) - higher ERA+ but more walks
- Craig Kimbrel (2012) - less innings, but the lowest opposition OPS I've ever seen (.358) at that level of production.
- Eric Gagne (2003) - more innings, insane opOPS (.374)*
- Koji Uehara (2013) - same innings, lower WHIP, great opOPS (.400), but more HR
* My choice for the greatest "modern closer" season of all time, as those 14 extra appearances and 10 more innings are pretty important. Plus, he's Canadian. :)
posted by grum@work at 10:21 AM on October 17, 2014
Jonah Keri mentions it in his current article about the Giants manager Bruce Bochy, praising Bochy for using his bullpen in a retro way instead of hewing to Conventional Wisdom.
When Bochy managed the Padres, he'd frequently bring in Trevor Hoffman (2nd in career saves ever) in tie situations, so that's not a new thing for him either. It always seemed like Hoffy wasn't quite as reliable in a tie game as when he had a lead, but I don't know if that's some odd kind of confirmation bias or if stats would back that up (don't bother looking, grum).
posted by LionIndex at 01:51 PM on October 17, 2014
It always seemed like Hoffy wasn't quite as reliable in a tie game
The one that always drives me nuts is closers who routinely (again, possibly confirmation bias) give up runs in non-save situations. I feel like Papelbon and Lowe were kings of that. Oh look: "Papelbon has been flawless when securing a save this year [2012], with 16 scoreless innings. In non-save scenarios, however, his ERA is 6.48." Similar story the year before.
posted by yerfatma at 01:57 PM on October 17, 2014
I always liked how Sparky Anderson handled his Reds bullpen in the mid-70s. Without a staff of dominating starters who threw a ton of innings, he went to his pen whenever and in all types of situations.
His relievers didn't rack up a massive amount of saves, but they were involved in a significant number of decisions, and posted a noteworthy number of wins, with the top guy having a W-L record equivalent to the number 4 or 5 starter (and with a lower ERA to boot). Being able to field an insane everyday lineup of Bench, Perez, Rose, Foster etc. created a lot of latter inning plate production, which made it all possible.
But some of those Cincy pitchers could hit pretty good too...
posted by beaverboard at 03:12 PM on October 17, 2014
don't bother looking, grum
"Look, mister tiger, there is a big juicy antelope flank just hanging from that hook over there. But don't you dare take it, you silly cat!"
Trevor Hoffman
Behind: .633 OPS
Tie game: .656 OPS
Ahead: .589 OPS
Career: .609 OPS
So, he definitely did worse in tie game scenarios, but not so much it was worrisome.
Comparisons:
Mariano Rivera
Behind: .595 OPS
Tie game: .655 OPS
Ahead: .528 OPS
Billy Wagner
Behind: .543 OPS
Tie game: .540 OPS
Ahead: .565 OPS
posted by grum@work at 03:15 PM on October 17, 2014
ABC News compared last night's walk-off to the Bobby Thompson home run in 1951. Man, did that stir a memory. I was 10-years-old, listening to the game on the kitchen radio as my mom fixed dinner. I was a Braves fan, but for some reason I liked the Giants, or perhaps it was dislike for the Dodgers. I really don't remember the reason, but when Thompson hit the home run, I started jumping around and yelling. My mom was a bit of a fan too, she broke out the bottle of Four Roses, and poured each of us a shot. She was smart enough to sip, I wasn't! Once I could breathe again, I was considerably quieter. Perhaps that was mom's plan all along.
posted by Howard_T at 04:56 PM on October 17, 2014
I think Hoffy was especially bad in games played in Arizona under a waxing moon and where his brother was a base coach.
**waits**
posted by LionIndex at 08:29 PM on October 17, 2014
Howard_T: You'll like the video at the top of this article.
posted by grum@work at 08:31 AM on October 18, 2014
I think Hoffy was especially bad in games played in Arizona under a waxing moon and where his brother was a base coach.
Sorry, I was out of the house most of yesterday night and this morning.
Glenn Hoffman was a base coach for the San Diego Padres from 2006-present.
Trevor Hoffman played for the Padres during that time (1993-2008), so there is a three season window we have to examine (2006-2008).
Here are all the games in Arizona during that time where Hoffman pitched.
It's not that hard to find the state of the moon at any time in history.
Games in Arizona under a waxing moon while his brother was a base coach:
August 30, 2006
September 30, 2006
October 1, 2006
April 24, 2007
April 25, 2007
July 5, 2008
6 games, 5.0 innings pitched, 9.00 ERA, 5 saves, 1 blown save, 1 loss.
*drops mic*
posted by grum@work at 02:21 PM on October 18, 2014
Games in Arizona under a waxing moon while his brother was a base coach:
grum, you've outdone yourself this time. BTW, thanks for the Bobby Thompson video. I almost got in my truck to head for the State Liquor Store to buy a bottle of Four Roses. I'll make do with a beer later on.
posted by Howard_T at 04:07 PM on October 18, 2014
Ha! I was just pulling that out of my ass, but I was actually right. I'll have to mention those stats like they mean something sometime.
posted by LionIndex at 06:17 PM on October 18, 2014
*drops mic*
That was like the end of a b-boy competition.
posted by BoKnows at 10:49 PM on October 18, 2014
Huh.
I didn't think a manager would do something stupider than what Mattingly did these playoffs (benching Puig, and then using him as a pinch-runner instead of a pinch-hitter), but St. Louis' manager Matheny has managed to pull it off.
He decided to use a pitcher who hasn't thrown a competitive pitch in 20 days in the bottom of the 9th, and then left him in there after watching him give up a hit, a hard hit out, and a four-pitch walk. It was completely unsurprising that he threw two more balls, and then grooved one for a walk-off hit (which happened to be a home run, but it really didn't matter).
As one person said BEFORE the game-winning hit on another site:
Matheny should have to walk back to St. Louis.
At least Rosenthal/Maness is rested and ready for the next inning/game that never happened.