October 16, 2014

SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle:

A place to discuss the sports stories that aren't making news, share links that aren't quite front-page material, and diagram plays on your hand. Remember to count to five Mississippi before commenting in anger.

posted by huddle to general at 06:00 AM - 17 comments

Huh.

I didn't think a manager would do something stupider than what Mattingly did these playoffs (benching Puig, and then using him as a pinch-runner instead of a pinch-hitter), but St. Louis' manager Matheny has managed to pull it off.

He decided to use a pitcher who hasn't thrown a competitive pitch in 20 days in the bottom of the 9th, and then left him in there after watching him give up a hit, a hard hit out, and a four-pitch walk. It was completely unsurprising that he threw two more balls, and then grooved one for a walk-off hit (which happened to be a home run, but it really didn't matter).

As one person said BEFORE the game-winning hit on another site:
Matheny should have to walk back to St. Louis.

At least Rosenthal/Maness is rested and ready for the next inning/game that never happened.

posted by grum@work at 11:20 PM on October 16, 2014

What makes it even crazier is that if St. Louis had a one-run lead going into the bottom of the 9th, they would have brought in Rosenthal/Maness/not-Wacha to pitch. Why do managers save better pitchers for when they have a 1/2/3 run lead in the 9th, instead of using them when they have absolutely no room for error (tied in the 9th)?

posted by grum@work at 11:41 PM on October 16, 2014

Baseball idiot here, but I've wondered the same thing. The team's "closer" only seems to be used in a save situation. Is it something to do with the coach and the player trying to pad the closer's save stats?

posted by owlhouse at 01:21 AM on October 17, 2014

The team's "closer" only seems to be used in a save situation. Is it something to do with the coach and the player trying to pad the closer's save stats?

It seems to be a "push-button managing" mentality where it is better to stick to some pattern and fail, than it is to try something new (or smart) and fail.

Since Tony LaRussa popularized the 9th inning "closer", who only comes in when the team is ahead by 1/2/3 runs to "close" the game, it seems that every manager needs to have a "closer" on their roster that they use the same way.

I'm sure the player likes having the stupid "save" stat padded (as they can then use it in arbitration negotiations or free agent contract talks), but other than moping about not being used for a save, the player really shouldn't have any say in it.

You would think that a manager/GM would break this cycle by utilizing their best pitchers in high leverage situations (tied in the bottom of the 9th is MUCH more important than ahead by 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th) and say to hell with the "save" stat. It would give them a better chance at winning more games AND would help reduce payroll costs because they don't feel the need to saddle themselves with an expensive "closer".

Here are a list of relief pitchers from just this season who could have easily played the role of a "closer" (> 20 saves) but were not used that way and were amazingly effective:

                                                
Rk              Player ERA+ SV   IP Age  Tm  ERA
1           Wade Davis  403  3 72.0  28 KCR 1.00
2        Aaron Sanchez  361  3 33.0  21 TOR 1.09
3          Drew Storen  340 11 56.1  26 WSN 1.12
4            Ken Giles  316  1 45.2  23 PHI 1.18
5         Dan Jennings  287  0 40.1  27 MIA 1.34
6       Kelvin Herrera  285  0 70.0  24 KCR 1.41
7      Dellin Betances  277  1 90.0  26 NYY 1.40
8         Neil Ramirez  266  3 43.2  25 CHC 1.44
9        Buddy Carlyle  243  0 31.0  36 NYM 1.45
10       Fernando Abad  238  0 57.1  28 OAK 1.57
11      Joaquin Benoit  225 11 54.1  36 SDP 1.49
12       Matt Thornton  224  0 36.0  37 TOT 1.75
13         Darren ODay  223  4 68.2  31 BAL 1.70
14         Tony Watson  219  2 77.1  29 PIT 1.63
15        Bryan Morris  207  0 64.1  27 TOT 1.82
16       Kyle Crockett  207  0 30.0  22 CLE 1.80
17    Santiago Casilla  204 19 58.1  33 SFG 1.70
18           Joe Smith  202 15 74.2  30 LAA 1.81
19       Neftali Feliz  198 13 31.2  26 TEX 1.99
20          Pat Neshek  197  6 67.1  33 STL 1.87
21          Jake McGee  197 19 71.1  27 TBR 1.89
22         Zach Putnam  197  6 54.2  26 CHW 1.98
23       Andrew Miller  192  1 62.1  29 TOT 2.02
24        Jared Hughes  183  0 64.1  28 PIT 1.96
25          A.J. Ramos  182  0 64.0  27 MIA 2.11
Rk              Player ERA+ SV   IP Age  Tm  ERA
26        Roman Mendez  181  0 33.0  23 TEX 2.18
27           Sam Dyson  179  0 42.0  26 MIA 2.14
28      Luke Gregerson  176  3 72.1  30 OAK 2.12
29      Tyler Clippard  174  1 70.1  29 WSN 2.18
30         Pedro Strop  173  2 61.0  29 CHC 2.21
31      Burke Badenhop  169  1 70.2  31 BOS 2.29
32       Dominic Leone  168  0 66.1  22 SEA 2.17
33          Joe Beimel  166  0 45.0  37 SEA 2.20
34           Dan Otero  163  1 86.2  29 OAK 2.28
35      Tom Wilhelmsen  161  1 79.1  30 SEA 2.27
36    Jonathan Broxton  160  7 58.2  30 TOT 2.30
37     Al Alburquerque  159  1 57.1  28 DET 2.51
38      Jeurys Familia  158  5 77.1  24 NYM 2.21
39        Blaine Hardy  158  0 39.0  27 DET 2.54
40      Brad Boxberger  158  2 64.2  26 TBR 2.37
41    Justin De Fratus  156  0 52.2  26 PHI 2.39
42           Zach Duke  155  0 58.2  31 MIL 2.45
43        Chad Jenkins  154  0 31.2  26 TOR 2.56
44      Jeremy Affeldt  152  0 55.1  35 SFG 2.28
45        Jason Frasor  150  0 47.1  36 TOT 2.66
46         J.P. Howell  147  0 49.0  31 LAD 2.39
47         Brett Cecil  145  5 53.1  27 TOR 2.70
48       Aaron Barrett  143  0 40.2  26 WSN 2.66
49         Dale Thayer  143  0 65.1  33 SDP 2.34
50         Cory Rasmus  142  0 56.0  26 LAA 2.57
Rk              Player ERA+ SV   IP Age  Tm  ERA
51         Sam Freeman  142  0 38.0  27 STL 2.61
52          Bryan Shaw  142  2 76.1  26 CLE 2.59
53      Shawn Tolleson  142  0 71.2  26 TEX 2.76
54       Evan Marshall  139  0 49.1  24 ARI 2.74
55        Kevin Jepsen  139  2 65.0  29 LAA 2.63
56     Jeremy Jeffress  138  0 32.0  26 TOT 2.81
57      T.J. McFarland  138  0 58.2  25 BAL 2.76
58     Anthony Varvaro  137  0 54.2  29 ATL 2.63
59      Danny Farquhar  137  1 71.0  27 SEA 2.66
60      Brandon League  136  0 63.0  31 LAD 2.57
61      Yoervis Medina  136  0 57.0  25 SEA 2.68
62      Junichi Tazawa  136  0 63.0  28 BOS 2.86
63           Vic Black  136  0 34.2  26 NYM 2.60
64   Kevin Quackenbush  135  6 54.1  25 SDP 2.48
65    Marc Rzepczynski  135  1 46.0  28 CLE 2.74
66          Jean Machi  134  2 66.1  32 SFG 2.58
67      Scott Atchison  134  2 72.0  38 CLE 2.75
68         Javy Guerra  134  1 46.1  28 CHW 2.91
69       Jake Petricka  131 14 73.0  26 CHW 2.96
70         Adam Warren  130  3 78.2  26 NYY 2.97
71        Oliver Perez  130  0 58.2  32 ARI 2.91
72     Eury De La Rosa  130  0 36.2  24 ARI 2.95
73        Tommy Hunter  128 11 60.2  27 BAL 2.97
74       James Russell  127  1 57.2  28 TOT 2.97
75         Seth Maness  126  3 80.1  25 STL 2.91
Rk              Player ERA+ SV   IP Age  Tm  ERA
76          Mike Morin  126  0 59.0  23 LAA 2.90
77       Jordan Walden  126  3 50.0  26 ATL 2.88
78       George Kontos  125  0 32.1  29 SFG 2.78

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/17/2014.

posted by grum@work at 08:12 AM on October 17, 2014

The team's "closer" only seems to be used in a save situation

It's one of those weird things in sports where it became accepted wisdom because a team succeeded with it and people made the logical leap to it being the reason they succeeded. And Tony LaRussa was never one to deny his own brilliance. The reality was the A's were a fantastic team top to bottom and had a closer on perhaps the best run in history (which The Eck punctuated in perfect Eck style by remarking at the end of the year, "Let's see some other motherfucker do that!"1). Like in every sport, once there's an accepted practice, it's used by lesser coaches as a CYA thing: "Sure it might have been stupid to not bring my closer in for the high-leverage situation that cost us the game, but The Book says not to do that on the road!"

Jonah Keri mentions it in his current article about the Giants manager Bruce Bochy, praising Bochy for using his bullpen in a retro way instead of hewing to Conventional Wisdom.

1. The top (only?) Google result for this possibly apocryphal story is me saying it 8 years ago, so don't take it as gospel

posted by yerfatma at 09:36 AM on October 17, 2014

The reality was the A's were a fantastic team top to bottom and had a closer on perhaps the best run in history (which The Eck punctuated in perfect Eck style by remarking at the end of the year, "Let's see some other motherfucker do that!"1).

His 1990 season is definitely the contender for "best season by a modern closer".
The only other ones that I would put up there would be:

  • Fernando Rodney (2012) - higher ERA+ but more walks
  • Craig Kimbrel (2012) - less innings, but the lowest opposition OPS I've ever seen (.358) at that level of production.
  • Eric Gagne (2003) - more innings, insane opOPS (.374)*
  • Koji Uehara (2013) - same innings, lower WHIP, great opOPS (.400), but more HR



* My choice for the greatest "modern closer" season of all time, as those 14 extra appearances and 10 more innings are pretty important. Plus, he's Canadian. :)

posted by grum@work at 10:21 AM on October 17, 2014

Jonah Keri mentions it in his current article about the Giants manager Bruce Bochy, praising Bochy for using his bullpen in a retro way instead of hewing to Conventional Wisdom.

When Bochy managed the Padres, he'd frequently bring in Trevor Hoffman (2nd in career saves ever) in tie situations, so that's not a new thing for him either. It always seemed like Hoffy wasn't quite as reliable in a tie game as when he had a lead, but I don't know if that's some odd kind of confirmation bias or if stats would back that up (don't bother looking, grum).

posted by LionIndex at 01:51 PM on October 17, 2014

It always seemed like Hoffy wasn't quite as reliable in a tie game

The one that always drives me nuts is closers who routinely (again, possibly confirmation bias) give up runs in non-save situations. I feel like Papelbon and Lowe were kings of that. Oh look: "Papelbon has been flawless when securing a save this year [2012], with 16 scoreless innings. In non-save scenarios, however, his ERA is 6.48." Similar story the year before.

posted by yerfatma at 01:57 PM on October 17, 2014

I always liked how Sparky Anderson handled his Reds bullpen in the mid-70s. Without a staff of dominating starters who threw a ton of innings, he went to his pen whenever and in all types of situations.

His relievers didn't rack up a massive amount of saves, but they were involved in a significant number of decisions, and posted a noteworthy number of wins, with the top guy having a W-L record equivalent to the number 4 or 5 starter (and with a lower ERA to boot). Being able to field an insane everyday lineup of Bench, Perez, Rose, Foster etc. created a lot of latter inning plate production, which made it all possible.

But some of those Cincy pitchers could hit pretty good too...

posted by beaverboard at 03:12 PM on October 17, 2014

don't bother looking, grum

"Look, mister tiger, there is a big juicy antelope flank just hanging from that hook over there. But don't you dare take it, you silly cat!"

Trevor Hoffman
Behind: .633 OPS
Tie game: .656 OPS
Ahead: .589 OPS

Career: .609 OPS

So, he definitely did worse in tie game scenarios, but not so much it was worrisome.

Comparisons:

Mariano Rivera
Behind: .595 OPS
Tie game: .655 OPS
Ahead: .528 OPS

Billy Wagner
Behind: .543 OPS
Tie game: .540 OPS
Ahead: .565 OPS

posted by grum@work at 03:15 PM on October 17, 2014

ABC News compared last night's walk-off to the Bobby Thompson home run in 1951. Man, did that stir a memory. I was 10-years-old, listening to the game on the kitchen radio as my mom fixed dinner. I was a Braves fan, but for some reason I liked the Giants, or perhaps it was dislike for the Dodgers. I really don't remember the reason, but when Thompson hit the home run, I started jumping around and yelling. My mom was a bit of a fan too, she broke out the bottle of Four Roses, and poured each of us a shot. She was smart enough to sip, I wasn't! Once I could breathe again, I was considerably quieter. Perhaps that was mom's plan all along.

posted by Howard_T at 04:56 PM on October 17, 2014

I think Hoffy was especially bad in games played in Arizona under a waxing moon and where his brother was a base coach.

**waits**

posted by LionIndex at 08:29 PM on October 17, 2014

Howard_T: You'll like the video at the top of this article.

posted by grum@work at 08:31 AM on October 18, 2014

I think Hoffy was especially bad in games played in Arizona under a waxing moon and where his brother was a base coach.

Sorry, I was out of the house most of yesterday night and this morning.

Glenn Hoffman was a base coach for the San Diego Padres from 2006-present.
Trevor Hoffman played for the Padres during that time (1993-2008), so there is a three season window we have to examine (2006-2008).
Here are all the games in Arizona during that time where Hoffman pitched.
It's not that hard to find the state of the moon at any time in history.

Games in Arizona under a waxing moon while his brother was a base coach:
August 30, 2006
September 30, 2006
October 1, 2006
April 24, 2007
April 25, 2007
July 5, 2008

6 games, 5.0 innings pitched, 9.00 ERA, 5 saves, 1 blown save, 1 loss.

*drops mic*

posted by grum@work at 02:21 PM on October 18, 2014

Games in Arizona under a waxing moon while his brother was a base coach:

grum, you've outdone yourself this time. BTW, thanks for the Bobby Thompson video. I almost got in my truck to head for the State Liquor Store to buy a bottle of Four Roses. I'll make do with a beer later on.

posted by Howard_T at 04:07 PM on October 18, 2014

Ha! I was just pulling that out of my ass, but I was actually right. I'll have to mention those stats like they mean something sometime.

posted by LionIndex at 06:17 PM on October 18, 2014

*drops mic*

That was like the end of a b-boy competition.

posted by BoKnows at 10:49 PM on October 18, 2014

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