November 11, 2010

The Hoser's NFL Picks 2010 -- Week 10: NFL picks that tell you to get in here for your chance to win!

posted by wfrazerjr to football at 08:21 AM - 10 comments

Welcome to Week Ten of the 2010 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we're hotter right now than a turkey in a deep fryer.

The Hoser staff knocked it out of the park for the second week in a row, rolling up an incredible 11-2 record against the spread and a 10-3 mark straight up. That's terrific, but even with a sparkling 20-6 run ATS during the past two weeks, we're now sitting at exactly .500 for the season. Ouch.

Of course, it can't all be peaches and cream, and the Patriots falling asleep against the Browns cost us the Lock of the Week and our Trifecta. Still, we managed to pick up a couple hundred bucks towards the deep hole we've dug ourselves now we're just a little more than $2,000 in the red. Can a brother get some stimulus package?

Wade Phillips finally got the axe in Dallas, where Jerry Jones's patience had worn thinner than his lips. Front-runners for the job are Jon Gruden and Bill Cowher, although we fully expect Jones to make an offer to Robert Benigni he's already been Pinocchio once.

Tune in next week for our annual haiku edition, or ...

It comes once a year
Your chance to channel your muse
So get your poem on!

... and we're going to have a contest to boot! Pick the game from Week 11 you're surest about, then write it up in haiku form along with your prediction of the score and post it either in the comments section of this blog or in The Hoser's thread on sportsfilter.com. The person coming closest to the actual score of the game they picked will receive a framed piece of their favourite NFL player courtesy of The Hoser and The IceBox Cards & Collectibles in Barrie, ON!

Contest entries must be posted either on SportsFilter or this blog in the comments section by Sunday, Nov. 21 by 12:59 EST to be considered. Entries must be a valid haiku (5/7/5 form) and have a complete prediction to be considered.

Remember these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as trying to fit "Nantucket" in your haiku.

Baltimore (+1.5) at ATLANTA (43.5): It's just a hunch, but we think Joe Flacco will go Whacco this week. Ravens 26, Falcons 20.

Cincinnati (+8) at INDIANAPOLIS (46.5): You get the feeling the Colts could sign three homeless guys outside Lucas Oil Stadium and Peyton Manning would throw each of them a TD pass. Colts 29, Bengals 22.

Houston (+1.5) at JACKSONVILLE (50): Most of the stat geeks have this as a dead heat. They're almost right. Jaguars 27, Texans 24.

Tennessee (PK) at MIAMI (41.5): Chad Pennington alert! Chad Pennington alert! Be on the lookout for tons of dump offs, screens and ducks. Titans 23, Dolphins 19.

Minnesota (-1) at CHICAGO (40): Take the Vikings Chicago could still be suffering poutine withdrawal. Vikings 22, Bears 16.

Detroit (+3) at BUFFALO (42.5): Apparently, not a lot of faith out there in Drew Stanton. Bills 22, Lions 17.

New York Jets (-3) at CLEVELAND (37): Peyton Hillis and two draft picks for Brady Quinn? That's 10-20 years behind bars in some states. Jets 19, Browns 17.

Carolina (+8) at TAMPA BAY (37): Okay, so the Bucs aren't the best team in the conference but they're sure better than the Panthers. Buccaneers 22, Panthers 16.

Kansas City (-1) at DENVER (42): Thinking about the Broncos makes us feel like we just got off the Tilt-A-Whirl. Chiefs 23, Broncos 13.

St. Louis (+6) at SAN FRANCISCO (38): The good news is, pretty soon Mike Singletary will be able to hook up with Wade Phillips for two-for-one specials at Old Country Buffet. 49ers 17, Rams 16.

Seattle (+3) at ARIZONA (41): Shut it down! Cardinals 22, Seahawks 14.

Dallas (+13.5) at NY GIANTS (44.5): We'll miss the facial expressions Wade Phillips's made on the sideline, but you'd do it too if your boss's whole arm was up your ass all week. Giants 31, Cowboys 20.

New England (+4) at PITTSBURGH (43.5): We have no good read on this game, but it seems like a field goal at most even at Heinz Field. Steelers 23, Patriots 20.

Philadelphia (-3) at WASHINGTON (41.5): The Hoser would be pleased if somehow both these teams could lose. Eagles 24, Racists 17.

Lock of the Week: Jacksonville

Trifecta: Kansas City, Baltimore, Jacksonville

2010 Week Nine Hoser Picks:
Straight Up: 10-3
Against The Spread: 11-2
Lock of the Week: 0-1
Trifecta: 0-1
Money: $280

2010 Season Hoser Picks
Straight Up: 79-53
Against The Spread: 62-62-8
Lock of the Week: 3-6
Trifecta: 1-8
Money: $-2,190

2010 Week 9 Money Spent: $25
2010 Week 9 Money Made: $0
2010 Season Money Spent: $125
2010 Season Money Made: $50
2010 Total: $-75

The format will stay as it has been each game is $100 ATS, with a $100 Trifecta (6:1 odds) and a $300 Lock of the Week for an even $2K per week. When the bye weeks begin, we'll jump the Lock to $500 to keep the number even. We'll use Danny Sheridan's line in the USA Today each week.

posted by wfrazerjr at 08:23 AM on November 11, 2010

Pigs to the slaughter:

This week or next week the same

Cowboys lose again.

Best thing is you can use it game after game after game.

posted by graymatters at 09:39 AM on November 11, 2010

Apparently, not a lot of faith out there in Drew Stanton.

Luckily Shaun Hill should be starting which means the Lions still have a very good chance at winning. Then again, they haven't won on the road since 2007 so odds are not in their favor.

Of course, the Lions could always just stick Suh at quarterback. He seems to be able to do everything.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 10:16 AM on November 11, 2010

I have heard conflicting reports on Hill. They would be rushing him back from the broken arm, and several fantasy guys have speculated at the first hit, he would be out and Stanton would be in.

I kind of suspect they may just go Stanton from the beginning and not risk Hill for the remainder of the year.

posted by wfrazerjr at 10:32 AM on November 11, 2010

There's gold in them thar Hillis.

posted by beaverboard at 11:18 AM on November 11, 2010

*** Wednesday Update *** per the lovely and talented Joe Bryant at footballguys.com:

QB Shaun Hill (DET) partially participated in Wednesday's practice and was working with the first-team offense, reports Dave Birkett, of the Detroit Free Press. Hill was handing off using his left forearm and took snaps from the shotgun. Hill will start in the team's Week 10 game, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

I still don't see Hill playing the whole game. Why risk him against freaking Buffalo?

posted by wfrazerjr at 11:40 AM on November 11, 2010

He isn't the future of the franchise and the Lions really don't want to lose to Buffalo. Especially since the Lions tend to lose to teams they should beat (they rarely encounter them yes, but it does happen).

Fucking Rams

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 01:34 PM on November 11, 2010

True, but I don't think the Lions are considering themselves dead for the season yet. They have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way out and if they could beat the Bills with Stanton, they'd have Hill for NE and Tampa Bay.

I think it comes down to whether you need Hill to beat the Bills, and I don't think you do -- I think you run Best 30 times and control the ball and you win 17-14.

posted by wfrazerjr at 02:59 PM on November 11, 2010

Best is hurting though, and he hasn't been all that effective in the running game anyways. The Lions have been successful this year because they've been able to pass the ball.

posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 08:04 PM on November 11, 2010

Oh great, you list us (the Jaguars) as your lock of the week. As if our inability to play consistently, and our inability to play well after the bye week in Del Rio's tenure wasn't bad enough, then you have to add this to it/lol.

posted by jagsnumberone at 09:54 PM on November 11, 2010

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