12/21/24
September 02, 2010
Football Outsiders' 24 Laws of Football: Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders has summed up seven years of research on his site with 24 laws of football, including "Running on third-and-short is more likely to convert than passing on third-and-short" and "[a] running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or a loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson."
I paid out the money for FO's almanac this year in pdf format. 607 pages and totally worth the money. Fascinating reading.
I bought their prospectus from several years back and while I wanted to buy into what they were saying, I just couldn't. They were basing teams projections based on individual stats, which never translates in football..it's great for baseball and moneyball, but for a team sport like football? I just didn't buy it.
Too much of their analysis seemed to be coming from people who've no idea about the game itself, and just based on their assessment of stats. Like the current section on the shotgun being more efficient than under center, based on yards/play out of shotgun. I would expect shotgun to have more yards per play, because you're seldom running out of it. There's more to the game than yards/play...keeping defenses on the field, pounding them on the ground so that they're sucking wind by the 4th, etc. It's more physical than just trying to get 1 more yard/play through the air than on the ground, if that makes sense. Nevermind you're opening up play action in under center formations, which helps your passing game. That whole play action thing blows up their argument about it not being necessary to "run to win the game" theory, as well.
I remember a few years back, someone did a statistical study showing that all teams should go for it on 4th and 1, regardless of their position on the field or game time. Warran Sapp made the comment that the guy who said that never had to face Jerome Bettis coming at you from a short field...and that's sort of how I feel...great discussion points, but little to do with *real* football.
posted by bdaddy at 12:16 PM on September 03, 2010
bdaddy, give FO another try. You might be surprised how the varied pieces of their puzzle fit into a surprisingly good summary of a game, my go-to site for game breakdowns. They look at good teams and try to identify what characteristics did those successful teams share. If there is a strong correlation between a good passing offence and winning but a poor correlation between rushing and success you'd probably want to rethink your "run to win the game" theory, no? And a lot of "individual" stats in football really are team stats - no RB can be considered separate from his O-line, interceptions are affected by QB pressure, etc.
Football is a couple of decades behind baseball in statistical analysis, its interesting to see how it develops. Can't say I agree with all their conclusions, oh well. Check out what they are doing with game charting and play-by-play analysis.
(gah - sounds like I'm shilling, not my intent, just tired for reading Peter King)
posted by deflated at 02:09 PM on September 03, 2010
That's a fabulous link. I'm in a pick-em league for the first time, and that was fantastic reading. I had heard of these guys previously but that kind of accessible synopsis is a really good gateway.
Also helps that it confirms a number of thoughts.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 02:33 PM on September 03, 2010
"Like the current section on the shotgun being more efficient than under center, based on yards/play out of shotgun. I would expect shotgun to have more yards per play, because you're seldom running out of it."
...
"[The shotgun] is more efficient if you only look at the first half, on every down, and even if you only look at running back carries rather than passes and scrambles."
Of course, stats are a product of the game, not the game itself, but there's a lot of "common wisdom" spouted ad nauseum that falls apart under scrutiny and I appreciate FOs desire to look closely at what's happening rather than just accept that what was true yesterday is true today.
A key to take from their paragraph on the shotgun is the cyclical nature of the sport - this movement toward increased use of the formation is a recent development, defences will adjust and then the advantage will move elsewhere.
posted by Mr Bismarck at 11:59 PM on September 03, 2010
I like this one :
A bad offense will score as many points as a good offense if it starts each drive five yards closer to the goal line.
I paid out the money for FO's almanac this year in pdf format. 607 pages and totally worth the money. Fascinating reading.