August 06, 2007

No. I don't buy it. For Tom to be the last you have to assume that there will never be another pitcher who lasts for 20 years and averages 15 wins a season (which nearly every 300 win pitcher has accomplished). Even now, pitchers are getting 32-34 starts in a full season. I can't believe we'll never see another pitcher last that long and win just half his starts. If Maddux and Glavine can do it in this era of 5-man rotations, pitch counts, and bullpen specialization, I find it hard to believe they will be the last. Of the guys who are close, I would think Mussina has the best shot at this point. After him, there are a fistful of guys in the league right now who could do it. Here's a short list of guys who I think have a reaonable shot given their talent and situation (age, career wins): Hudson (31, 131) Barry Zito (29, 110) Roy Oswalt (29, 109) Roy Halladay (30, 107) Mark Buerhle (28, 106) C. C. Sabathia (26, 95) Jon Garland (27, 90) Johan Santana (28, 89) Brad Penny (29, 85) Carlos Zambrano (26, 78) John Lackey (28, 74) Josh Beckett (27, 71) Jake Peavy (26, 68) Dontrelle Willis (25, 65) Dan Haren (26, 47) Oliver Perez (25, 40) Of course, not nearly all of these pitchers will make it, but can you honestly say NONE of them will do it? If this was Keno, I'd pick 3 and go with Hudson, Santana and Peavy. That said, I'm really pleased for Tom. I hope Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz all bow out in the same season. What a Hall of Fame class that would be.

posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 02:41 PM on August 06, 2007

Looking at Glavine, is there any doubt that this is another achievement that is steroid-aided? When he hugged his daughter after the game, I thought he was going to break her in half, he was roid raging so hard. As far as the 300-game winners thing goes, I think a key factor in today's day and age (but not always historically because of smaller rotations, more games pitched, different bullpen construction and usage, etc.) is that the player needs to play with a competitive team for most of his career, giving him the best opportunity to win the most games. Look at Glavine -- in his 20 full seasons in the big leagues, his teams have only missed the playoffs 5 times (1988-90 Braves and 2004-05 Mets). That's pretty amazing and certainly is highly unlikely to be replicated going forward except for perhaps anyone pitching a big chunk of his career with the Yankees or maybe a select handful of other teams. Of course, there are some examples of modern day 300 game winners who have pitched for some bad teams, but I think it's beyond argument that being on teams that can give you the run support to win a lot of games or that have other favorable conditions for winning a lot of games (e.g., a strong bullpen) is a big plus factor for a pitcher chasing this particular milestone.

posted by holden at 04:07 PM on August 06, 2007

I don't understand how pundits can look at a game with a one hundred year history of consistent change and say phrases like "never again" or "of all time". Well, there area some things that you can pretty much state "never again", mainly because the game has changed so much. The last 500 win or 7000 inning pitcher. The last 600+ IP in a season The last 70 complete games in a season. The last 30 game loser. 300 wins is going to be difficult just because you need to pitch VERY well, for a LONG time, for very good teams, without suffering a severe injury. If Johan Santana signed with the Yankees/Red Sox/Angels/etc, and he could get a real offense behind him, he'd have a great shot. Felix Hernandez could have a shot at it by virtue of starting so early (probably around 26 wins after age 21 season), but he has to get it in gear starting next season and run off a bunch of 15-18 win seasons. Sabathia was the same way (had 30 wins after age 21 season), but he's burned too many seasons with less than 15 wins. Buerhle's got a head start on Peavy, but Buerhle's team is going to be hard pressed in the near future to win games for him, so Peavy would be a better choice. If I were laying down my picks, it would be: King Felix (age + skill + decent team) Johan Santana (skill + free agency in 2008) Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay is developing a HELL of an offence in AA/AAA right now...) [some currently unknown 16-year old pitcher from the Dominican Republic who gets drafted by]

posted by grum@work at 10:57 PM on August 06, 2007

i don't think Mussina will make it to 300 either. but today i learned that with his win this past Sunday (#246) he just passed Dennis Martinez as the pitcher with the highest win total to never have a 20-win season.

posted by goddam at 12:17 PM on August 07, 2007