12/18/24
August 10, 2002
Bonds is signed through the 2006 season, so I think the most likely scenario at this point is that he will play all four of the remaining seasons and retire at age 42. He is projected to end this year with 613 home runs, leaving him 143 home runs shy of the record. He would need 36 home runs a year to break it over four years (or 48 home runs a year over three). I don't believe that fear of pitching to Bonds will make a difference, since it didn't stop him from breaking the single-season record. I also don't believe he needs playoff success; his workout regimen has never diminished in all the years the Giants have been golfing in October. The most likely thing that will stop Bonds is a serious injury that costs him a half-season or more (see also McGwire, Mark). However, my bet is that he'll be able to stick around, stay healthy, and break the record.
posted by rcade at 09:23 AM on August 10, 2002
I can't imagine Barry staying interested in baseball that much longer
I think the prospect of being a the top of a list that includes Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Willy Mays is a pretty good inducement, and then there's the money. He would need 36 home runs a year to break it over four years (or 48 home runs a year over three).
That's assuming there's no decline in his physical skills (which are amazing). However, a dropoff from where he is now would still leave him better than most ballplayers. What amazes me about Barry Bonds is not his strength, but his quickness and his eye for the ball. If you pitch a strike, he hits a home run. I'd like to see stats on the percentage of hittable pitches he hits for home runs. I agree with rcade that he'll stay around and break the record. And then the question becomes: will anyone be able to pass him?
posted by kirkaracha at 11:09 AM on August 10, 2002
According to this Washington Post story, "Bonds went from 500 to 600 in just 710 at-bats." Willy Mays took 1,981 at-bats to go from 500 to 600; Hank Aaron took 1,402; and Babe Ruth took 1,121.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:19 AM on August 10, 2002
Let's not forget a) possible exteneded work stoppage and b) possible drug testing next season. Methinks the days of the 50+ HR sluggers may be coming to an end.
posted by herc at 12:18 PM on August 10, 2002
Projection for this year is 613? I think he'll probably do better than that. I still think this steroid thing has been overestimated. Testing for it is probably not going to impact things very much at all. Those that do use them will find something else, but mostly I don't think that some of these people (Barry included) are using them anyway. I discussed this in a previous large steroids thread. I also am not expecting much of a dropoff from Barry, because he's already shown that the typical rules of aging to 40 don't apply to him. He's getting better every year. Stronger and smarter. Barring injury or work stoppage, I think he'll be at 800 by the end of his contract. And then of course we'll watch as ARod comes along and breaks that, maybe Sammy in the meantime, since none of these records for power are going to hold up for any significant amount of time...
posted by Bernreuther at 01:45 PM on August 10, 2002
A drug testing regime will not kick in until sometime in 2005. Maybe. Under the proposal at the table, there will be three unannounced tests in 2003, then a verification round in 2004. Not to catch dopers -- to determine the level of dopers in the league. If that level is above 5%, then MLB and the Players' Union will sit down and figger out some sort of regime.
posted by Cap'n Swing at 06:43 PM on August 10, 2002
re: 'roids. If Barry isn't using steroids but some pitchers are, wouldn't that help his HR chase?
posted by JawaKing at 10:48 PM on August 11, 2002
JawaKing: No, not really. Most of Barry's HR aren't line drive shots that just clear the wall. He's killing the ball whether it's a Johnson fastball or a slow curve from Glavine. Just because some pitchers might be throwing the ball 3 mph faster than usual isn't going to do much for Barry's boomers.
posted by grum@work at 11:23 PM on August 11, 2002
Yeah, Barry hits them off everyone. I was pretty surprised to see on sportscenter last night that he's hit more HRs (8) off Maddux than any other picture. That's probably proof positive he's not just a dumb jock.
posted by tieguy at 07:46 AM on August 12, 2002
It'd take parts of three seasons at his current pace, and if you figure in some decline in his pace (it has to happen, if not from age then from continued fear of pitching to him) it'll probably take four. I can't imagine Barry staying interested in baseball that much longer, unless the Giants improve radically enough that they become a Series contender.