04:56 PM
11/21/24
11/21/24
July 22, 2002
The optimal National League batting order puts the best hitter second and the pitcher seventh or eighth, according to a study by mathematician Bruce Bukiet. More on Bukiet: His baseball predictions page and the eGrandslam gambling site he runs.
tell that to the Reds in '00 damn those NY Mets!
posted by mick at 10:03 AM on July 23, 2002
A Markov Chain Approach to Baseball seems to be the work on which Bukiet is basing his statements. It's an interesting way of answering questions about baseball, without using the more common simulation approach. The Bukiet & Palacios model indicates that "optimal batting orders can expect to win approximately four more games per season than worst orders." No manager is stupid enough to use the worst possible order, so switching to the recommended line-up is probably good for, at most, one more win per year. No big deal.