March 17, 2002

So you think your brackets are busted?: As one friend put it, 'my bracket looks like Berlin in 1945.' But you probably aren't the only one. The stats in the link are illuminating- relatively few people made some of the correct calls. (slightly more inside.)

posted by tieguy to basketball at 09:12 PM - 6 comments

Some numbers: (percent of ESPN participants who picked them to get to the sweet 16) Kent St.: 12.66% Indiana: 19.13% UCLA: 11.97% Missouri: 18.64% Southern Ill.: 7.09% Texas: 21.1% So at least 6 of the remaining teams were picked by less than 1/4 of the people in the pool. In other words, you might not feel great at the moment, but odds are things won't look quite so bad when you get to the office in the morning and actually see the standings :)

posted by tieguy at 09:14 PM on March 17, 2002

I picked Indiana, Missouri & Texas, but I got everything else wrong. I think it's odd that I got two regions practically perfect, but the East and West are just awful. Use Yahoo to see Spofi's pick distribution.

posted by djacobs at 09:42 PM on March 17, 2002

Quick and dirty math: the product of all the percentages for the correct picks in round one (32 games) is 0.000000236647286464%, which is the same as one person out of about 422,569,814. The chance of getting the perfect sweet 16, based on the percentages listed: 0.000026834238773304% which is one person out of about 3,726,582. If you've got a perfect sweet 16, you're either psychic or lying.

posted by grum@work at 10:38 AM on March 18, 2002

my brackets are hurting (only picked 8 of sweet 16, 1 final four pick already gone) but i'm loving it. the unexpected is what makes march great (as long as maryland doesn't go out unexpectedly).

posted by danostuporstar at 11:12 AM on March 18, 2002

I'm always surprised that no one on Yahoo doesn't get it perfectly. The Quick & Dirty Math makes it look impossible, but there are some things you know: 16 will never beat 1, 15 will not be 2 (usually). As Yahoo (or whoever) gets more and more people to sign up, it's just a matter of time until one tournament gets nailed.

posted by djacobs at 12:33 PM on March 18, 2002

I have to admit, I didn't do any picks this year. Looking at the strengths and weaknesses in all the brackets, just made my brain bleed. Maybe I am psychic, but I definately saw this year as a "no way to pick 'em" proposition.

posted by Wulfgar! at 02:53 PM on March 18, 2002

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