January 18, 2017

Baggy, The Rock, and Pudge make the cut.:
Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez are inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

posted by grum@work to baseball at 10:58 PM - 9 comments

Full voting results:

Ballots Cast: 442 Needed for Election: 332 

Votes Name            Percentage 
381 Jeff Bagwell      86.2% 
380 Tim Raines        86.0% *
336 Ivan Rodriguez    76.0% ^
----------------------------
327 Trevor Hoffman    74.0% 
317 Vladimir Guerrero 71.7% ^
259 Edgar Martinez    58.6% 
239 Roger Clemens     54.1% 
238 Barry Bonds       53.8% 
229 Mike Mussina      51.8% 
199 Curt Schilling    45.0% 
151 Lee Smith         34.2% *
105 Manny Ramirez     23.8% ^
 97 Larry Walker      21.9%  
 96 Fred McGriff      21.7% 
 74 Jeff Kent         16.7% 
 59 Gary Sheffield    13.3% 
 45 Billy Wagner      10.2% 
 38 Sammy Sosa         8.6% 
 17 Jorge Posada       3.8% -
  3 Magglio Ordonez    0.7% -
  2 Edgar Renteria     0.5% -
  2 Jason Varitek      0.5% -
  1 Tim Wakefield      0.2% -
  0 Corey Blake        0.0% -
  0 Pat Burrell        0.0% -
  0 Orlando Cabrera    0.0% -
  0 Mike Cameron       0.0% -
  0 J.D. Drew          0.0% -
  0 Carlos Guillen     0.0% -
  0 Derrek Lee         0.0% -
  0 Melvin Mora        0.0% -
  0 Arthur Rhodes      0.0% -
  0 Freddy Sanchez     0.0% -
  0 Matt Stairs        0.0% -

^ First year on ballot
* Last year on ballot
- Will be dropped from future ballots for receiving less than 5.0% of the vote

posted by grum@work at 11:07 PM on January 18, 2017

Hoffman and Guerrero are pretty much locks to make it into the HOF on the 2018 ballot.

Martinez has two years left on the ballot. At 58.6%, he's actually in better shape than Raines was with two years left on the ballot (55.0%). He's expected to become the player to receive the "SABR push" (like Raines and Blyleven received before him) to get him in the hall of fame.

The jump by Bonds and Clemens to above 50% seems to signal to a lot of people that they might make it into the HOF on the BBWAA ballot (and not the Veteran's Committee) in the next 5 years.

Mussina's climb above 50% gives him 6 seasons to make to the promised land. He has Halladay, Pettitte, Moyer, Buehrle, and Hudson joining him on the ballot in the next five seasons, so he'll probably fair very well in comparison to those guys.

Speculation is that Schilling's personality was the reason he dropped about 7% from the 2016 ballot. It could be hard for him to make up that ground in the remaining 5 years on the ballot.

Ramirez received pretty much the same percentage of votes that Mark McGwire got in his first season. People think that if Bonds and Clemens get in through the BBWAA, the Ramirez's numbers might start climbing quickly afterwards. Still, he might stall out because of his two positive test for illegal (masking) drugs.

Walker, McGriff, Kent, Sheffield, and Sosa were all considered strong candidates by SABR writers, and all of them look like they have too far to go to make it through the normal voting procedure.

Posada is probably the best player on the ballot to be one-and-done, joining Edmonds (2016), Delgado (2015), and Kenny Lofton (2013) as the most overlooked for the past 5 years of balloting.

posted by grum@work at 11:24 PM on January 18, 2017

Walker, McGriff, Kent, Sheffield, and Sosa...

Kent Tekulve?! Oh please, please, please get him into the Hall.

posted by NoMich at 08:55 AM on January 19, 2017

On the 2018 ballot (and my guess at their vote percentages), newcomers in bold:

Inductees:

Chipper Jones (91%)
Vladimir Guerrero (81%)
Jim Thome (79)
Trevor Hoffman (79%)

Getting close but falling short:

Edgar Martinez 69%
Mike Mussina (65%)
Rogers Clemens (63%)
Barry Bonds (61%)
Curt Schilling (53%)
Omar Vizquel (41%)
Scott Rolen (36%)
Larry Walker (34%)
Manny Ramirez (33%)
Jamie Moyer (29%)
Fred McGriff (26%)
Andruw Jones (25%)

Players that will probably get at least one vote but no more than 5:

Kerry Wood
Livan Hernandez
Hideki Matsui
Brad Lidge

posted by grum@work at 09:45 AM on January 19, 2017

A fond farewell to Tim Wakefield as a Hall of Fame possibility. Wakefield's knuckler was a thing of hideous beauty. He was a great inning eater on some big playoff runs.

posted by rcade at 03:20 PM on January 19, 2017

If Rolen is that far from Chipper it would be a shame. I suspect Thome will have to wait until Year 2; you know how important it is to make it clear a player was great but not that great.

posted by yerfatma at 03:57 PM on January 19, 2017

If Rolen is that far from Chipper it would be a shame.

Rolen suffers from the same thing that Raines did. He happened to play at the same time as a clear first ballot player at the same position. Jones is better than him in almost every stat (both traditional and SABRmetric), except for fielding (which never gets much play unless you are acknowledged as a legend at it). Jones also has an much better MVP voting history and post-season resume, and has the bonus of being a single-team legend.

When Jones goes in, Rolen will move up the charts. I think that he'll become the new SABR push candidate after Mussina & Martinez get in (or drop off).

posted by grum@work at 06:29 PM on January 19, 2017

Eh. A couple of years ago I made my peace: the Hall of Fame has been rendered meaningless. Until and unless people such as Bonds and Clemens are in, why do I care what a bunch of out-of-touch old men with alcohol, nicotine, and caffeine addictions think about actual athletes?

posted by hincandenza at 08:37 PM on January 19, 2017

Seconded. I'm not even mad about it anymore, I just don't pay it any mind until the news comes out and then I check their percentages and go about my day. I look forward to the hall of fame meaning something again someday.

posted by tron7 at 03:43 PM on January 20, 2017

You're not logged in. Please log in or register.