12/21/24
September 26, 2015
Toronto Blue Jays Clinch Playoff Spot, But Nobody Notices: The Toronto Blue Jays clinched their first playoff spot in 22 years last night -- ending the longest drought in North American pro sports -- but this went without notice or celebration. The common perception was that they still had a magic number of 1, but it is impossible for the three other teams in contention (Texas, Houston and Los Angeles) to all tie Toronto in wins because they play each other. See the comments for the math that the media overlooked.
Here's another media report catching up to this news.
How did you figure this out, Grum?
posted by rcade at 11:30 AM on September 26, 2015
How did you figure this out, Grum?
Goat entrails. It's always goat entrails.
posted by Etrigan at 01:31 PM on September 26, 2015
I didn't figure it out, actually. It was someone else that figured it out in a reddit thread, and posted it to see if anyone could poke holes in it. Everyone went over the numbers and it was right.
I'm sorry if I gave the impression that I discovered this, or that it was my work. I usually link to this sort of thing properly, but it was late (early) and it slipped my mind to include the link.
I've been away from my computer all day, and didn't notice this post until now.
It would be good if rcade could remove my name from the description in the thread title so it doesn't make anyone think I was trying to steal credit for someone else's work.
(Ironically, I do this sort of calculation all the time near the end of the baseball season, looking for the ridiculous 3-, 4-, or 5-way tie for multiple playoff spots. This is the one time I didn't do it.)
posted by grum@work at 11:47 PM on September 26, 2015
I've edited the post. I'm amazed that the media could watch the MLB standings so obsessively in September and miss this -- particularly all the beat reporters in Toronto.
posted by rcade at 12:17 AM on September 27, 2015
grum -- you get credit for this the same way some previously stalwart defensive shortstop gets a Gold Glove on reputation even when his defense has slipped. Chalk one up to living on perception v reality, bitches.
posted by holden at 01:08 AM on September 27, 2015
(Ironically, I do this sort of calculation all the time near the end of the baseball season, looking for the ridiculous 3-, 4-, or 5-way tie for multiple playoff spots. This is the one time I didn't do it.)
I assume this has something to do with the improbable nature of the Blue Jays clinching a playoff spot with a week to go (or at all) and not wanting to jinx it.
posted by bender at 10:40 AM on September 27, 2015
I assume this has something to do with the improbable nature of the Blue Jays clinching a playoff spot with a week to go (or at all) and not wanting to jinx it.
Shhhh!
posted by grum@work at 10:04 PM on September 27, 2015
Yes, please keep quiet about the clinching. It's a very low-key thing. Nobody wants to jinx anything. Particularly the players.
posted by DrJohnEvans at 04:21 PM on September 28, 2015
All of the major sports networks keep saying the Toronto Blue Jays magic number for clinching a playoff spot (at least a Wild Card spot) is 1.
However, it's zero. They've already clinched. Even if LAA wins tonight, the Jays have still clinched.
Texas, LAA, and Houston are fighting for two playoff spots (one of the AL Wild Card and AL West). For Toronto to be knocked out of the playoffs (assuming the Yankees win outright), all three teams must have at least 88 wins at the end of the season (tying Toronto and forcing a nightmare playoff scenario to determine division/wild card spots).
If LAA wins tonight (leading 8-3 in the 8th as I type this), they'll have 79 wins.
Houston has 80 wins.
Texas has 84 wins.
For all three teams to tie (or pass) the Jays at 88 wins:
LAA needs to win 9 games, and they have 9 games left.
Houston has to win 8 games, and they have 8 games left.
Texas has to win 4 games, and they have 9 games left.
But Houston plays Texas for the next two games.
So Houston has to win those two games for them to pass Toronto.
So Texas would then have to win 4 games in the 7 remaining games.
But Texas plays LAA for four games, and LAA has to win all four of those games to have any chance of reaching 88 wins.
Therefore Texas would have to win 4 games in the 3 remaining games, which is impossible.
The Toronto Blue Jays have guaranteed at least a wild card spot, so their magic number should be 0.