11/05/24
July 20, 2005
Rafael Palmeiro and the Keltner Test: What is Rafeal Palmeiro's chances of making the Hall of Fame? SportsFilter columnist Grum@work uses the Keltner Test to find out.
mbd1: I agree, but since Palmeiro himself is still active, I decided to include the active ones (including Rickey Henderson) in the discussion. The Keltner Test is usually done on a player during the year that they are first eligible for the HOF, but the discussion around Palmeiro was so big right now, I thought I'd jump ahead 6 (7? 8?) years and see how he ranked at this point.
posted by grum@work at 08:03 AM on July 20, 2005
Yes, we live in an inflated statistical era, but still 3,000 and 500 are not just rare - but totally rare. Only 4 players. That's not just consistency - that's excellence. And let's not forget that he is still having a good year at age forty, will finish (unlike Eddie Murray, his statistical compadre) well over 500 HRs (closer to 600, if he plays one more year, probably 600) and his RBI totals are also worthy. He's a first ballot HOFer. This I guarantee.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 08:49 AM on July 20, 2005
Here's a good article by Aaron Gleeman at Hardball Times on the same subject, but primarily using WS and RCAA.
posted by holden at 09:07 AM on July 20, 2005
And by the way, hurrah to whoever figured out how to make the columns not be all the way over on the far left side of the screen.
posted by holden at 09:28 AM on July 20, 2005
Point well taken.
posted by mbd1 at 09:36 AM on July 20, 2005
Palmero is like an iron man. He isnt very good and never has been, but if you do anything long enough you will eventually put up numbers. Dont hold your breath on him going to the Hall his first few tries. Somebody will probably argue the point that it would mean alot to his people (Mexicans or where ever in the hell he's from).
posted by BubbaG at 10:23 AM on July 20, 2005
Was he the best player on his team? 1994 Orioles - Definitely, and by a wide margin. 1995 Orioles - Tough call. He's the best batter Those teams featured Roberto Alomar in his prime, to say nothing of Cal Ripken. But this is silly and Raffy belongs in the Hall. The steroid thing is a witch-hunt and I see no reason why a guy who a) never hit particularly long home runs, b) was incredibly consistent and never had a sudden jump in stats, and c) got his hits because of a very sweet, technically perfect swing and not huge muscles should be singled out.
posted by drjimmy11 at 11:22 AM on July 20, 2005
1994 Orioles - Definitely, and by a wide margin. 1995 Orioles - Tough call. He's the best batter Those teams featured Roberto Alomar in his prime, to say nothing of Cal Ripken. Robbie Alomar didn't join the Orioles until 1996. I did, however, jump the gun and say that Palmeiro was the best in 1997. He did lead the team in HR and RBI, but if I had checked a little closer, I'd have noticed that Alomar was indeed having a much better year. The 1994 season was the first of back-to-back short seasons for MLB. Ripken had good numbers (.315 .364 .459) but Palmeiro was just plain better in every way (.319 .392 .550). The 1995 season was a bit tougher than I let on, as Bobby Bonilla was picked up midway through the season and he was VERY good that year. But for contribution to the team over the entire year, Palmeiro was head-and-shoulders above everyone else (with Harold Baines being the closest competitor with a bat).
posted by grum@work at 12:03 PM on July 20, 2005
Somebody will probably argue the point that it would mean alot to his people (Mexicans or where ever in the hell he's from). Born in Cuba. One major leaguer from Cuba already in (Tony Perez). If I had a vote, he would go in. Regardless of nationality.
posted by graymatters at 02:38 PM on July 20, 2005
There is no question here to be asked. Rafi is every bit as deserving as anyone. His defense was always far better than average and his offense...well it was plain and simply always consistant for the better. He has always been my first choice for fantasy baseball. His time with the Cubs in the late 80's gave us a nice insight into what he was going to be...an all around great ballplayer as well as great embassador for the sport. Everyone asks if Biggio will make it like it matters. He has made a mochery of the hit batsman. Can't remember the last time I saw him even try to move out of the way and many of the pitches were strikes! I know he was one of the 90's leading hitters {behind Mark Grace} but there is a guy who's played defense as an average player while hitting very well. Let's focus on Palmeiro more for what he does right and less about Robo-Biggio with what he does that's supposed to be so great.
posted by melcarek69 at 03:17 PM on July 20, 2005
Uhm, I think Rafael deserves to be there, but if we're looking at a Hall of Fame with different levels of greatness, he'd need an up elevator to see Craig Biggio.
posted by yerfatma at 03:43 PM on July 20, 2005
Nice job, grum. One comment - I've always thought that questions 6 and 10 usually consider the Listee against players that are eligible for the HOF. That is, active players who are no-brainers don't enter into the discussion.