January 27, 2005

The Manning Index: : Revisiting the question of Clutch Performance, Doug Drinen at Sabernomics looks at who spits the bit and who thrives at playoff time in the NFL. You'll never guess who the top clutch QB is.

posted by yerfatma to football at 08:59 AM - 4 comments

Jeff Hostetler is #5 and Steve Young #32? Looks like the same formula used by the BCS.

posted by smithnyiu at 12:34 PM on January 27, 2005

yfm, it seems to favor all-time greats(Montana), brady (unbelievable early success), and QBs who didn't make it to the dance much(Dilfer). Needless to say, the measurment of 'clutch'ness is flawed. Some sort of clutch performances vs. clutch opportunities is needed. And perhaps clutchness isn't best measured in post season wins? 4th quarter comebacks, away, against a team with a better record; now that is clutch.

posted by garfield at 12:51 PM on January 27, 2005

Great link! Hostetler reminds that I always wondered how much better Phil Simms' reputation would be if Simms hadn't gotten hurt late in the season and missed the '90 Super Bowl; I'm pretty sure the Giants would have won anyway and two rings shows a lot more than one. Also, my long simmering disregard for Marino gets another jet of flame, w00t!

posted by billsaysthis at 02:17 PM on January 27, 2005

It is a neat article, although when I think "clutch", I think of winning in conditions that are unfavorable somehow, and the homefield is the only part of the formula that takes that into account. OTOH, it does have the benefit of simplicity: while I could think of several other clutch-ness factors (coming from behind, winning with x percent of starters injured, whatever), how would you decide to weight them?

posted by lil_brown_bat at 08:10 PM on January 27, 2005

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