04/25/24
December 10, 2014
Jon Lester Signs 6-Year, $155 Million Deal with Chicago Cubs: Free agent pitcher Jon Lester has reportedly agreed to the richest contract in Chicago Cubs history -- a six-year, $155 million deal. Other teams vying for his services were the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants. In terms of annual value, Lester becomes baseball's second-highest paid hurler behind Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers. How are they taking this news in Boston, Eric Wilbur? "Red Sox proved incompetent in losing Jon Lester."
Lester goes from being underpaid to sickeningly overpaid. I do expect he has 1 or 2 more good years left in the rotation ... Do the Cubs really think they have a squad capable of challenging during the next 2 years? Lester isn't going to bring the additional 17 wins the Cubs need to make the post season even if he has a career year.
posted by cixelsyd at 10:43 AM on December 10, 2014
Lester goes from being underpaid to sickeningly overpaid.
Relative to what?
"What if you set the cost of a win at $7 million, and then inflated by the customary 5%? Then given the standard half-win per-season decline, Lester would be worth about $151 million. And what if you set the cost of a win at $7.5 million? The market's been pretty crazy so far. Then you get Lester being worth about $162 million. Alternatively, what if Lester is a 4-win pitcher? Then you're more like $125 135 million."
posted by yerfatma at 11:20 AM on December 10, 2014
Lester isn't going to bring the additional 17 wins the Cubs need to make the post season even if he has a career year.
Lester, Montero, Hammel, Joe Maddon and a stable of young, talented, and growing players is a damn good way to close the gap, anyways.
Put another way - outside of your completely arbitrary two-year deadline on his effectiveness, at least two of the real contenders for his services - the Giants and Dodgers - were guys it was going to be easier to hurdle for a wild card spot with him than against him. If Lester's a 4.0 WAR pitcher next year, you gain 8 games on the potential outcome that he signs with one of them.
posted by dfleming at 12:19 PM on December 10, 2014
Lester isn't going to bring the additional 17 wins the Cubs need to make the post season even if he has a career year.
We'll see. If you get the right ace it affects more than just the games he plays in. Cliff Lee had a huge impact on getting the Rangers to their first World Series. They'd never had a postseason ace like him before, and he became the final piece in the puzzle to legitimize a sad-sack franchise as a title contender.
posted by rcade at 01:13 PM on December 10, 2014
They'd never had a postseason ace like him before ...
And Lester is a postseason ace?
posted by cixelsyd at 04:26 PM on December 10, 2014
He pitched like one in 2013 for the Sox, winning four of his five starts including two in the Series. His only loss was a 1-0 defeat in the ALCS.
posted by rcade at 05:07 PM on December 10, 2014
And Lester is a postseason ace?
3-0 and one earned run allowed in three World Series starts and 21 innings. No slouch for sure.
posted by dfleming at 06:47 PM on December 10, 2014
Is that a joke? He has a 0.43 career Series ERA.
posted by yerfatma at 06:52 PM on December 10, 2014
Reminder: The Cubs won the 2015 World Series in 'Back to the Future 2'
posted by NoMich at 08:23 PM on December 10, 2014
Please don't let Wilbur speak for us. He's a blogger-era Dan Shaughnessy. The Sox are only "incompetent" if they really wanted Lester for the next 6 years. They know him better than anyone (though it's telling he was signed by a GM group led by Theo Epstein and a manager who faced him in the AL East) and John Henry has been on record as not wanting to give big contracts to players past their 30th birthday. Wilbur's spun this as a failure because it makes for hits and the team finished in last so the Fellowship of the Miserable will lap his garbage up, but I'm not sure how he can mention Lester's World Series ERA without considering the ownership group that got Lester's team into three World Series. No matter which side you come down on, I will admit the $70 million offer this season was a weird/ awful way to open negotiations. It's funny their final offer wound up being short by $20 million . . .
I gotta be honest with you: I won't miss Lester. He and Buchholz teamed to produce the best sleep aid this side of Ambien. There's nothing wrong with being Tom Glavine, obviously, but I can't get excited about seeing him go even if they can't readily replace him.