12/22/24
September 25, 2014
SportsFilter: The Thursday Huddle:
A place to discuss the sports stories that aren't making news, share links that aren't quite front-page material, and diagram plays on your hand. Remember to count to five Mississippi before commenting in anger.
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posted by BornIcon at 09:16 AM on September 25, 2014
Bill Simmons dares ESPN to punish him, gets suspended
posted by BornIcon at 09:17 AM on September 25, 2014
Sometimes, the Mets let you down immediately, even if it takes a whole year to set it up.
posted by Etrigan at 03:25 PM on September 25, 2014
From Bonker's article:
"There's been so much talk about this during the course of the season, and I've said, you look at Derek, he had a slow April. He had a pretty good May, a pretty good June and pretty good July.
Presented without comment:
April: .272/.352/.309 - 127th out of 171 players with at least 80 AB that month
May: .275/.327/.343 - 126th out of 175 players with at least 80 AB that month
June: .272/.309/.330 - 127th out of 165 players with at least 80 AB that month
July: .289/.340/.320 - 105th out 137 players with at least 80 AB that month
posted by grum@work at 04:21 PM on September 25, 2014
So he's better than 99.9999999 percent of the population of the world. That's pretty good.
posted by Etrigan at 04:49 PM on September 25, 2014
I think he'd come pretty close to leading the Padres all those months, if not doing so outright.
posted by LionIndex at 07:34 PM on September 25, 2014
Just checked. He'd be leading the team in average by 10 points. He'd be better than the team's average OBP by 40 points or so, but his slugging is a little below average. I'm sure we can work out a deal with him for next year, right?
posted by LionIndex at 07:39 PM on September 25, 2014
"The suspension given to Simmons by ESPN for criticizing Goodell is actually one week longer than the original suspension given to Rice for knocking out his girlfriend in an Atlantic City elevator."
Does anyone know what condition his socks were in?
posted by Mr Bismarck at 08:00 PM on September 25, 2014
I think he'd come pretty close to leading the Padres all those months, if not doing so outright.
April:
Jeter OPS: .661
Rank if compared to Padres (min 80 AB): 3rd behind Chris Denorfia (.775) & Everth Cabrera (.691)
May:
Jeter OPS: .670
Rank if compared to Padres (min 80 AB): 3rd behind Seth Smith (1.142) & Yonder Alonso (.779)
June:
Jeter OPS: .639
Rank if compared to Padres (min 80 AB): 1st (only one qualifier Everth Cabrera .344)
July:
Jeter OPS: .660
Rank if compared to Padres (min 80 AB): 2nd behind only other qualifier, Alexi Amarista (.669)
Overall:
Only one player qualified for the batting title in San Diego this year, Seth Smith, and his OPS is .814 (compared to Jeter's .611).
If you drop the requirements to only 100 games played, then Seth Smith, Yasmani Grandal (.706), and Tommy Medica (.705) beat him.
If you use OPS+ (therefore equalizing by factoring in park effects, as Petco is a pitcher's park), then Jeter (74) would finish behind those three and Alexi Amarista (78), Jedd Gyorko (77), and Wil Venerable (77).
As well, the Padres team OPS (.634) and OPS (85) are higher than Jeter.
posted by grum@work at 09:24 PM on September 25, 2014
So he's better than 99.9999999 percent of the population of the world. That's pretty good.
If the Earth's population is 7.125billion, your suggestion is that he's better than everyone but 7 people on Earth. Obviously that isn't true. Based on OPS+ (min 100 games), there are 227 players in this league that are better than him (out of 247 that meet the requirement).
A better statement would be that ~92% of MLB players were better than him (min 100 games played in 2014).
posted by grum@work at 09:30 PM on September 25, 2014
As well, the Padres team OPS (.634) and OPS (85) are higher than Jeter.
Right but the stat lines you posted previously are avg/obp/slug, right? And obviously, we have some injury/PED/consistency issues with the constantly rotating non-Seth Smith people and only one person qualifying for the batting title. So, yeah, I think Jeter would have been a net benefit to the Pads this season.
I'm going to go sit on the porch and look forlornly into the distance now.
posted by LionIndex at 10:11 PM on September 25, 2014
After everything I just posted, Derek Jeter went ahead and wrote his storybook ending tonight.
I feel bad for the Yankee/Red Sox fans who shelled out thousands of dollars for tickets to this weekend's games, cuz I don't think Jeter is going to play in any of them after tonight.
posted by grum@work at 10:32 PM on September 25, 2014
I believe the "Kirk Cousins should be starting vice RGIII" train has officially derailed.
posted by Bonkers at 10:55 PM on September 25, 2014
After everything I just posted, Derek Jeter went ahead and wrote his storybook ending tonight.
Jeter isn't going to be remembered for a walk off single in a season where his presence prevented his team from securing a playoff berth, but a nice ending non the less. He will be remembered for clutch performances when the competition was most intense.
I guess this clears the way for ARod to play shortstop for the next 3 seasons.
posted by cixelsyd at 11:14 PM on September 25, 2014
I guess this clears the way for ARod to play shortstop for the next 3 seasons
It might be 11 years to late, but Jeter finally did leave the shortstop position for ARod!
In all seriousness, there isn't a chance ARod plays anything but DH next year. His fielding at 3B was beginning to unravel the last couple of years, and being another year older after sitting out for an entire season means he's going to be...well...Jeteriffic at shortstop.
As a DH, he might still have something left in the tank, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him be...well...Jeteriffic (2013-2014) at the plate in 2015.
posted by grum@work at 11:27 PM on September 25, 2014
I'd be interested in your take on this, grum: one of my long-standing dislikes about WAR metrics is how much it seems to favor, or even double-count, positional adjustments. I.e., that a given offensive output is worth more or less based on the position you play (which I will still believe is a flawed analysis in WAR), on top of the defense elements of WAR.
My own misgivings aside, when A-Rod went to the Yankees any sabermetrician would tell you that A-Rod was the clear choice for SS... which of course isn't how the Yankees handled it.
So: how much would their WAR values change if they'd done the right thing from 2004 onward, with Jeter at 3B and A-Rod at SS?
The napkin guess is that the positional adjustment alone is +5 runs from 3B to SS, so half a win a year over 10 years = ~5 wins more for A-Rod and ~5 wins less. But that would be leaving aside the likely defensive adjustments; Jeter is often criticized for not being good moving far to his left ("pasta diving Jeter" being the joke in Red Sox Nation), which is somewhat less important at 3B.
Jeter cost the Yankees collectively quite a few wins with his horrible SS glovework, where A-Rod was still about replacement level or slightly better at 3B (and a win or two better than replacement at SS). Presumably, both players would have become better defenders by each switching to the other's positions.
In addition, Jeter might collectively have been worth more WAR since while he'd lose the positional adjustment bonus, he also might have been replacement level or so at 3B which would potentially bump his overall WAR well up. Similarly, A-Rod would benefit his WAR with that positional adjustment- because his offensive stats in his prime would be even more godlike at SS- and from what I can tell at he did leave a win or two on the table in the defensive falloff from SS to 3B.
It seems like the Yankees literally left several wins on the table each year by playing these guys at their wrong positions (and as a Sox fan- thanks, guys!). I'm curious if we could go back and guesstimate how each would play the other's positions, and what the raw runs/wins and positional adjustment would have played out.
posted by hincandenza at 12:20 AM on September 26, 2014
Jeter isn't going to be remembered for a walk off single in a season where his presence prevented his team from securing a playoff berth, but a nice ending non the less. He will be remembered for clutch performances when the competition was most intense.
You're wrong. Baseball is arguably the most romantic of the major professional sports. The narrative of one of the most clutch hitters in this generation going out on a walk-off single in his last home game is the kind of story arc that lasts. This will be part of the folklore on Jeter.
The playoff moments will certainly be what people recall first, but going out on a game-winning hit is more or less the plot of most sports fiction for a reason. People love to imagine things ending like this.
posted by dfleming at 02:37 AM on September 26, 2014
Jeter isn't going to be remembered for a walk off single
Will that be the only thing he's remembered for? Of course not. But to think baseball fans won't remember that is silly. Ted Williams ended his career with a home run. He did so 15 years before I was born and I know that off the top of my head.
one of my long-standing dislikes about WAR metrics is how much it seems to favor, or even double-count, positional adjustments
What's the problem with valuing production more at SS than 1B? There are plenty of guys in the minors who could hit .250/.300/.400 and hide at 1B/DH in the majors; their problem is there are 60 or so people who can produce a bit to a whole lot better blocking them. I can understand disagreeing with the weights applied to the various positions, but it seems like a decent if rough way to level the comparison. It's a nod to scarcity: if you can generate a 100 OPS+ at any position that's nice, but if you can do it at a premium defensive position while not hurting the team, that's more valuable.
Is that what you're describing as "double-count[ing]" or is that a separate part? I suppose if defensive metrics were better than guesswork we could drop the adjustment but until then, it makes sense to me. And even with a perfect defensive metric, wouldn't you weight runs saved at SS/CF/C over runs saved at 1B? Hmm, maybe not, that doesn't make sense when I type it out. WAR does wind up doing double- or even triple-duty: firstly people want to use it to compare pitchers to position players and then, at least at FanGraphs, it seems to be the building block for player dollar values which is probably where the problem lies: the scarcity thing isn't that important on the field during a game, but it makes a huge difference when putting together a team.
posted by yerfatma at 09:01 AM on September 26, 2014
FanGraphs on Jeter's value. Touches on at least part of the question of what he was or was not worth. Includes a link to an analysis of his defensive value:
In the past 50 years, 507 different players have batted at least 5,000 times . . . sort by Positional-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 57th place, around names like Cal Ripken, Rafael Furcal and Omar Vizquel. This is the positional adjustment, and Jeter gets major points for being a shortstop — a position of considerable difficulty.Sort by Defense-per-150-games, and you find Jeter in 252nd place. In other words, he's right in the middle of the pack, near guys like Jeff Blauser, Andre Dawson and Willie McGee. He comes out at -1.5 runs on that scale. He's ahead of John Olerud. He's ahead of Mark Grace and Rickey Henderson and Moises Alou. Jeter has drawn the criticism that he's cost his team runs by playing a lousy shortstop, but overall he's still been a reasonably valuable defensive player. That's just because of his reliability at a difficult position.
posted by yerfatma at 09:58 AM on September 26, 2014
My specific question about WAR and position with ARod and Jeter is, assuming they'd each play the other's position about equally well (or better/worse if you want to speculate), how much would their WAR change simply by putting SS or 3B by their names. The napkin math is they'd each go up/down 5 wins over the last decade, possibly more if they were each better suited to the other's position (i.e., that Jeter would play 3B better than ARod and vice versa).
My general double-counting issue with WAR is that it grants a blanket bonus for defensive position while also counting their actual defensive contribution- positive or negative. If Jeter for example were a below-replacement level shortstop (and your last post above suggests he was about break even compared to replacement level?), why should he get a positional bonus? I could put David Ortiz at shortstop, he'd play it really poorly and lose points for that, but apparently that would also swing his WAR from -15 runs to +7.5 simply by having him put on a glove. He'd still make some plays, it's not like he'd be a statue, but he'd miss a lot of plays in his zone, plays a AAA replacement SS would make and ultimately cost his team significant runs.
To my way of thinking, the positional bump comes from the number of plays over the number of chances. The goal is to get 27 outs and have more runs than the opposing team, and all outs are created equal. Of course, more plays are generally made involving a SS or CF than by a LF or 3B, which is the root of their greater value; you want your best defenders touching the ball the most, same as you want your best hitters getting the most at-bats.
A player who played poor shortstop would actually cost his team more runs than playing a replacement-level LF. Similarly, a great defender will make more outs- and thus save more runs, and thus have a greater defensive WAR- than the average, and in a position where they make a lot of plays that can be substantial! For example, in 1999 Andruw Jones lapped the league and had nearly 100 more putouts in CF than the next highest person (and the 10th highest all time), for a defensive WAR of 3.8. He was worth 3.8 more wins than a replacement player just with his glove!
Which is great, but he doesn't need a CF positional bonus: he already got it by having a chance at and making 492 putouts on balls hit in his general area. Again, if we could put David Ortiz (not to pick on the guy) in CF on that same team, he might be lucky to make 1/3 of the plays Jones did, and thus would be a huge negative in the field, and promptly put back at DH. But someone has to play each position, and in the case of ARod and Jeter, the wrong person was in each by manager's discretion.
Now, separately a GM would clearly want to know if they were hiring a SS or a 1B, because a SS with a +3 WAR glove is rarer than a generic hitter with a +3 WAR bat. But from the assessment of WAR as "wins above replacement" I think it should be more position neutral. If you play a position and have a net positive runs saved (or negative runs allowed) over replacement, that should alter your WAR.
Just my two cents...
posted by hincandenza at 04:24 PM on September 27, 2014
For only the second time in his career, Derek Jeter will play a baseball game today while not in contention for a playoff spot.