04/25/24
May 29, 2007
Crunch these numbers...: A website calculates the odds of when Barry will hit number 756. Place your bets now.
posted by boredom_08 to baseball at 04:44 PM - 6 comments
This comment represents all the time and energy that people would get into rehashing the assorted Bonds controversies. If you are feeling inclined to post about one of the assorted Bonds controversies, you no longer have to. --- That being said, wow, Bill James is my statistician hero of the day. Thank you, bordeom_08 for the first link and Crafty for the second two!
posted by Joey Michaels at 09:15 PM on May 29, 2007
Math is as complicated as you make it. You can analyze statistics forever using complex computers and still have a mediocre success rate at predicting outcomes (meteorologists come to mind) or you can use simple algebra and be just as unreliable. Using the knowledge that ratios are consistent (1/2 will always equal 2/4) if I know that I have 1 HR in 2 games than you can predict that for me to hit 2 HR it will take me 4 games. This oversimplifies and it is subject to the same fallibilities as any other ratio-based prediction (If Bonds hits 3 HR tomorrow you expect him to break the record much sooner than if he doesn't) but it still is a great way demonstrate how much fun math can be (not really kidding but I accept that I am a dork). Anyway Bonds has 12 HR and needs 22. The Giants have played 50 games so by crossmultiplying and dividing you can determine 12/22 = 50/x. when you solve for x Bonds should hit his 22 HR in SF 92nd game which is July 18 at Chicago Cubs. Incidentally using the same math the Red Sox are on pace to clinch their division on August 31.
posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 05:35 AM on May 30, 2007
Sort of a followup, you can see how accurate your prediction looks by checking it more frequently. As I have checked up on Bonds periodically I have found, like the author, that he is all over the place. However the Red Sox have consistantly between 8/31 and 9/5 for the last month or so.
posted by kyrilmitch_76 at 05:39 AM on May 30, 2007
*Applause* Well explained, well done.
posted by Joey Michaels at 06:31 PM on May 30, 2007
So there's a 7.4 % chance he won't do it this year? 7.4 is my new favourite number.
posted by tommybiden at 06:35 PM on May 30, 2007
This is kind of cool, given that there's a 30% chance that he'll do it during a nine-game home stand in June, and as much as a 7.4% chance that he won't even do it this year. That sounds like a pretty even statistical spread to me. In a related unpredictability-of-an-individual-player's-accomplishments story, Tom Verducci surmises which active players will reach 3,000 hits. Actually, it's really Bill James who's doing the predicting. And this study has Bonds breaking the mark next year even though he's less than 130 hits away.