September 06, 2007

The Hoser's NFL picks -- Week One 2008: NFL picks that plan to dress up as Tony Siragusa in drag for Halloween this year.

Welcome to Week One of the 2008 edition of The Hoser's NFL Picks, where we tap every available resource to bring you the best in handicapping – just not in the same way Senator Larry Craig might.

It’s been a busy offseason. Byron Leftwich is out in Jacksonville, Priest Holmes is still out in Kansas City, and apparently Michael Vick is going to be in for a while. At least Vick’s friends knew how to roll over.

It’s been hopping in The Hoser’s household, too. We’re expecting our second child, but my wife seems to be dead set against naming the new arrival Dobler Dierdorf Hoser. Oh well … maybe if it’s a boy I’ll have better luck.

The format will stay as it has been for the past two seasons – each game is $100 ATS, with a $100 Trifecta and a $100 Lock of the Week for an even $2K per week. When the bye weeks begin, we’ll jump the Lock to $500 to keep the number even. We’ll use Danny Sheridan’s line in the USA Today each week.

To recap last season, The Hoser was 129-123-6 ATS, 156-99 SU, 7-10 on the Lock and 2-15 for the Trifecta. We managed to lose nearly $3K during the season, but made a little back during the postseason.

Which leads us to this final sentence, a version of which you’ll see every week:

Remember – these picks are just for fun. Using them to wager money is advisable as having Wade Wilson pick up your prescription.

New Orleans (+6) at INDIANAPOLIS: According to NFL insiders, neither the Saints or the Colts are particularly nervous about opening the season on national TV. Both teams are petrified, however, that they might hear special guest John Cougar Mellencamp's “This Is Our Country” for the 8 billionth time. Saints 27, Colts 26.

Kansas City (+2.5) at HOUSTON: Masked gunmen broke into the home of Texans cornerback Dunta Robinson over the weekend. Police said the burglars were able to enter easily, as Robinson had hired Houston’s offensive line to guard the house. Texans 21, Chiefs 20.

Denver (-3) at BUFFALO: The Bills ranked a stellar 30th in total offense last season, and how did they react? They let disgruntled RB Willis McGahee walk in favor of rookie Marshawn Lynch and Bears castoff Anthony Thomas. The Hoser likens this to when ABC thought “Three’s Company” would be just fine with Cindy replacing Chrissy. Broncos 29, Bills 13.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) at CLEVELAND: Browns rookie quarterback Brady Quinn may not be the starter, but he’s still getting mobbed by girls – despite his uncanny new resemblance to Full Metal Jacket’s Private Pyle. Steelers 20, Browns 16.

Tennessee (+6.5) at JACKSONVILLE: The Hoser has read new starting Jags QB David Garrard will make everyone forget about Byron Leftwich. We looked at last year’s numbers – seven TDs, five picks and a 79.5 passer rating – and said, “Byron who?” Jaguars 30, Titans 20.

Carolina (PK) at ST. LOUIS: The Panther depth chart lists “M. Moore” as Carolina’s third-string QB. It’s Matt, not Michael, but given that Jake Delhomme and David Carr are ahead of him, we’d say that situation is pretty Sicko. Rams 24, Panthers 21.

Philadelphia (-3) at GREEN BAY: The Hoser doesn’t want to say Brett Favre is getting old … but he totally dug our Jenilee Harrison reference back there. Eagles 22, Packers 17.

Atlanta (+3) at MINNESOTA: The Hoser has said for the past two or three seasons the Falcons needed to replace Michael Vick with a real quarterback. Well, we’re still waiting. Falcons 19, Vikings 17.

Miami (+3) at WASHINGTON: Given the drafting of Lorenzo Booker and the emergence of unheralded RB Jesse Chatman, the Dolphins may be planning a musical revival this season – “The Extremely Sinkable Ronnie Brown”. Redskins 24, Dolphins 13.

New England (-6.5) at NEW YORK JETS: Boston Herald writer John Tomase broke the story this week that Pats’ DL Le Kevin Smith enjoys painting roses in his spare time. Smith is not the first NFL player to show an interest in flowers, as I believe several Vikings players had tulips on their members during a boat ride last season. Patriots 24, Jets 20.

Tampa Bay (+6) at SEATTLE: I was mystified to read this week the Buccaneers had decided to keep four QBs on their roster. I did the math several times, and then realized many people are still counting Chris Simms as a quarterback. Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 16.

Arizona (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO: The Hoser doesn’t expect this to be a very exciting game, but check out and listen to the “Wolfleyisms” – the odd phrasings of Cards’ color man Ron Wolfley. Our fave? Here's Wolfley on a certain former Rams' head coach's free hand with the flag -- “Mike Martz would challenge the First Amendment.” Cardinals 29, 49ers 21.

Chicago (+5.5) at SAN DIEGO: This line increases to two touchdowns if Lance Briggs drives Chicago’s team bus. Chargers 22, Bears 14.

Detroit (+1.5) at OAKLAND: The Raiders will start Josh McCown at quarterback in Week One after a ridiculous amount of secrecy from Oakland head coach Lane Kiffin. Man, if that doesn’t sound like a character from a John Hughes film. Lions 24, Raiders 13.

New York Giants (+5.5) at DALLAS: After Tiki Barber retired this offseason, most fans expected to see a big hole in the New York offense. Now, they also get to see one every time Tiki’s on camera. Cowboys 27, Giants 17.

Baltimore (+1.5) at CINCINNATI: The Bengals are reportedly looking at RB DeDe Dorsey, late of the Indianapolis Colts. Head coach Marvin Lewis, short on bodies in the backfield, is also interested in a.a. milne, B.B. King and CeCe Peniston. Bengals 26, Ravens 19.

Lock of the Week: Washington

Trifecta: Washington, Denver, Detroit

posted by wfrazerjr to commentary at 03:47 PM - 0 comments

You're not logged in. Please log in or register.