12/21/24
September 01, 2007
For The Love of Sport: The End of the Race for the Chase: NASCAR's race for the chase comes down to the wire
This marks my first effort at what I hope will be a weekly column. Every Saturday I will take a look at the sports calendar for the week ahead and try to find and discuss that compelling match-up, under-reported event, human interest story, or just the game that I plan on watching. As a matter of housekeeping I am mostly doing this to brush up on my writing skills and I am looking forward to any feedback, but I am aware that none of my paragraphs seemed to seperate. I can be reached via email at kyrilmitch_76@yahoo.com. Once I had decided that I would write a weekly column, and the basic format for the column, the next question was, “OK, so what’s the story of the week?” The easy answer was opening day of the NFL season with an article chock full of war metaphors, hope springs eternal clichés, and a definite underlying bias for the Patriots. But on Sunday the 2nd of September in California and Saturday the 8th in Richmond NASCAR’s Nextel Cup Series will have their final two races where drivers can jockey for position and solidify their place in the top 12 of the standings. From there on out, in a novel approach to playoffs, all of the drivers will race in the final ten races but the only results that matter are the results of those top 12 drivers. It seems a bit bizarre to me that mediocre drivers could potentially have such a huge impact on who qualifies for and ultimately how others drivers will do in the chase. I mean Michael Waltrip could crash into Jeff Gordon causing Tony Stewart to win the title. And by the way Michael, not to pour lemon juice on your paper cut, but how do you end up in 51st place in the standings? Don’t you do this for a living? I mean they only have 43 guys in the race (unfortunately, a big part of Michael’s problem is getting into the races). I think that it would be great if the NFL could find a way to do something similar for their playoffs. I can see next year’s AFC title game now; the Indianapolis Colts are driving for the go ahead score against the Patriots. Time is running out as Manning steps to the line and begins his ridiculous chicken dance. The defensive line shifts, Adalius Thomas points and yells, and just as Jeff Saturday snaps the ball Mario Williams of the Houston Texans screams in from the sideline knocking Tony Dungy aside and sacks Manning from behind. Manning is down, time expires, and the Pats win. While the analogy at face value sounds silly, even the most casual NASCAR fan could imagine the racing equivalent where Juan Pablo Montoya causes a wreck involving Kurt Busch at the race in California (through no fault of his own I’m sure). Busch finishes in 43rd, Montoya finishes 42nd and in a slightly more unlikely scenario Earnhardt Jr. wins the race. Dale’s 158 point deficit would disappear just like that. NASCAR.com suggests that there are basically six drivers competing for four spots. Gordon, Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards have already punched their tickets for the chase and Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton and Kyle Busch are almost certain to lock up spots six, seven and eight this weekend. But to say that there are six drivers fighting for four spots gives the impression that Ryan Newman (starting fourth at California) could climb into the chase from 14th (175 points behind Kurt Busch who sits in 12th spot and is starting from the pole) or that Clint Bowyer could collapse out of the eighth spot and land in 13th (he is presently 223 points ahead of Earnhardt Jr.) Harvick sits 167 points ahead of Earnhardt Jr. in 10th, 11th place Martin Truex Jr. is 166 ahead of Earnhardt and 12th place Kurt Busch has the earlier mentioned 158 point lead over the 13th spot. The most likely change to the top 12 would be for Earnhardt Jr. (starting seventh at California) to somehow bump Busch out of the top 12. Basically, for Earnhardt Jr. to qualify for the chase he would have to more or less win in California on the 2nd while Kurt Busch pulls a Lightning McQueen and gets lost in Radiator Springs (If you haven’t seen the movie Cars watch it with your kids). Earnhardt Jr. would then have a 3 point lead, so assuming Busch finished his community service road paving project and made it to Richmond on the 8th then Earnhardt Jr. would still have to finish ahead of Busch in the final race before the chase. Bear in mind that Earnhardt Jr. has not won in 24 starts this year and has won just twice in his last 96 starts dating back to the start of 2005. Whatever happens I expect a lot of exciting racing especially among the guys who have already clinched their spots and have nothing to do but race for the win and all important seeding once the chase starts. The point is that in a sport that moves at 190 miles per hour unless a driver is mathematically eliminated than anything can still happen. Will it happen? I doubt it, but if I had to bet on whether media darling Dale Earnhardt Jr. pulls out an amazing comeback or Kurt Busch holds on to clinch the final spot in the Chase for the Cup my money is on Miller Time rather than the King of Beers but I would definitely consider putting a side bet on the suggestion that someone like a Montoya will come along and rain on the parade of one of the guys presently sitting in those 9 through 12 spots. No matter what happens it is bound to be quite a show.
posted by kyrilmitch_76 to commentary at 02:59 PM - 0 comments