October 18, 2006

CFL Week 19: Statistical breakdown of the week 19 CFL matchups

Well, I went two-two, nailing the Winnipeg game dead on last week. Over two weeks 4-3. Not so great. skydivedad has suggested I use some stochastics in my predictions. Hopefully next week I'll have that lined up. A mea culpa, I discovered the Defensive Passer Ratings I used last week were off. I hadn't figured out how to do min/max functions previously and missed manual adjusting several scores to 0 or 2.375 as required. Quick breakdown on the stats for those not familiar with them from Cold Hard Football Facts. These are their "Stats that Matter". Scorability is total number of yards divided by points. This measures not only offensive efficiency but special teams play (PR/KR, short fields, etc) and defensive performance (forcing turnovers and punts, short fields, etc). The lower the number the better. Bendability is the opposite of scorability in that it measures how many yards the defense makes the opposing offense go to score a point. Again special teams play comes into effect due to its affect on the starting position from punts or kick offs. The more yards the better. Defensive Passer Rating is just that, the average passer rating of the opposing quarterback. It measures how good a pass defense is. Lower is better here. Yards per Attempt is the average number of yards per passing attempt. Yards divided by pass attempts plus sacks. Why plus sacks? Well, quarterbacks are rarely sacked when trying to hand the ball off so they are really pass attempts gone wrong. Higher the better. Hog Index is a measure of how good the offensive line is. It averages the ranks in three categories: Time of Possession, Negative Pass Plays, and Yards Per Carry. Lower the better. Quality Record is the record against teams with winning records. This fluctuates throught the year. On to this weeks games:

Week 19 Saskatchewan @ Toronto
SaskatchewanToronto Winner
Record 8-8 10-6 Toronto
Quality 4-5 1-5 Saskatchewan
YPA 7.61 7.72 Toronto
Scorability 14.22 15.44 Saskatchewan
Hog Index 3.33 7 Saskatchewan
Bendability 13.53 18.11 Toronto
DPR 86.27 66.05 Toronto
Point Diff 1.81 -0.31 Saskatchewan
Toronto has the better defense and Saskatchewan has a slightly better offense with a better offensive line and scorability score but Toronto has a better passing game. Saskatchewan is averaging 1.63 more yards a carry. I'm going to pick Toronto win on the strength of their defense. Toronto by 10

Week 19 Edmonton @ Montreal
Edmonton Montreal Winner
Record 5-11 8-8 Montreal
Quality 3-7 1-5 Edmonton
YPA 7.90 7.05 Edmonton
Scorability 17.73 14.20 Montreal
Hog Index 4.67 5.33 Edmonton
Bendability 14.90 15.3 Montreal
DPR 99.50 85.31 Montreal
Point Diff -3.25 1.63 Montreal
Despite the differences in record this is a match up between pretty close opponents. The biggest difference is in pass defense. Edmonton has the worst pass defense in the league, allowing an average of 8 points better passer rating than second worst team Hamilton. Montreal's air attack more than makes up for Edmonton's advantage on the ground. Montreal by 7.

Week 19 Calgary @ Winnipeg
Calgary Winnipeg Winner
Record 10-7 8-8 Calgary
Quality 4-3 3-6 Calgary
YPA 8.27 7.14 Calgary
Scorability 14.91 18.58 Calgary
Hog Index 2.67 3 Calgary
Bendability 16.04 13.75 Calgary
DPR 88.74 84.07 Winnipeg
Point Diff 3.88 -5 Calgary
Calgary dominates the statistics pretty handily. This is also their last game before the playoffs with a bye next week. I think Calgary wins by 14, even though its Winnipegs last home game of the season. Of course, all bets are off if Calgary rests its starters.

Week 19 Hamilton @ B.C.
Hamilton B.C. Winner
Record 4-13 11-5 BC
Quality 1-9 6-1 BC
YPA 6.06 8.55 BC
Scorability 18.11 12.13 BC
Hog Index 6 4 BC
Bendability 14.38 17.18 BC
DPR 91.33 69.07 BC
Point Diff -11.59 13.31 BC
Poor Hamilton. They've had a bad season. Fortunately it ends this week. BC by 21. Of course that was my prediction last week.

posted by apoch to commentary at 12:55 PM - 0 comments

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