October 12, 2006

CFL - Week 18 Preview: Statistical breakdown of the CFL week 18 games

I analyzed the games for Week 18 using the quality statistics that The Cold Hard Football Facts describe here. They were initially developed for the NFL. I'm not sure how to adjust them for the differences between the NFL and the CFL, but for the most part the games are similar and so they should be relatively accurate. For a further description of the equations and statistics used follow the previous link.

Week 18 – Montreal @ Saskatchewan
Montreal SaskatchewanWinner
Record 8-7 7-8 Montreal
Quality 1-5 4-5 Saskatchewan
YPA 8.411 7.53 Montreal
Scorability 14.2 14.09 Saskatchewan
Hog Index 4.67 5 Montreal
Bendability 15.24 13.48 Montreal
DPR 86.15 86.73 Montreal
Point Diff 1.8 1.87 Saskatchewan
The only thing Saskatchewan does better is play Quality Opponents. That could be because Montreal is one of the four teams considered Quality Opponents for this week. Montreal is averaging almost a whole yard better per pass attempt. Saskatchewan is averaging 1.34 more yards a carry and almost a minor more in time of possesion a game. Saskatchewan also has a better scorability score, but only by .11 yards a point. Montreal makes up for the very small differences in offense with a much better defense. My pick this week is Montreal by 14, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Roughriders pulled a victory out at home.

Week 18 – Toronto @ Edmonton
Toronto Edmonton Winner
Record 9-6 5-10 Toronto
Quality 1-5 3-6 Edmonton
YPA 7.56 8.02 Edmonton
Scorability 15.92 17.59 Toronto
Hog Index 6.33 3.33 Edmonton
Bendability 17.98 15.24 Toronto
DPR 65.92 98.09 Toronto
Point Diff -0.53 -3.27 Toronto
Edmonton has a better quality record and goes .46 yards further per pass attempt. That question is, does that half a yard make up for the 1.33 yards further they have to go to earn a point? Against Toronto, probably not. Toronto makes their opponents go over two and a half yards further per point than Edmonton and the average passer rating is over 30 points higher against Edmonton's defense. I predict Toronto beating the Eskimo's in front of their home crow by 21.

Week 18 – Winnipeg @ Hamilton
Winnipeg HamiltonWinner
Record 7-8 4-12 Winnipeg
Quality 3-6 1-9 Winnipeg
YPA 7 6.04 Winnipeg
Scorability 18.94 18.8 Hamilton
Hog Index 7.33 4 Hamilton
Bendability 13.97 14.32 Hamilton
DPR 83.7 89.15 Winnipeg
Point Diff -5.8 -11.88 Winnipeg
Hamilton has a rough season, having to play quality opponents ten times so far, and only beating Calgary back in week 5 in surprise 20-17 victory. This is an intriguing matchup, despite the overall records. Winnipeg gains almost a yard more per pass attempt and half a yard more per rush attempt. The scorability ratings for both team are so close as to be negligble. Hamilton is making their opponents work harder to score than Winnipeg (.35 better bendability rating), but is getting out scored by an average of almost 12 points a game. Passers also do better against Hamilton then Winnipeg. This bodes well for the Winnipeg passing game. I see Winnipeg moving up to .500 with a victory over Hamilton by 7.

Week 18 – British Columbia @ Calgary
B.C Calgary Winner
Record 11-4 9-7 BC
Quality 6-0 3-3 BC
YPA 8.61 8.29 BC
Scorability 12.09 15.04 BC
Hog Index 2.33 3 BC
Bendability 17.63 16.25 BC
DPR 67.38 88.77 BC
Point Diff 14.67 3.69 BC
This easiest prediction of the week. BC is the best team in the league, with a perfect 6-0 record against opponents with quality records. They've lost to Saskatchewan 3 times and Edmonton once. If the Roughriders run the table, BC's record against quality opponents would drop to 6-3. The Lions travel over three yards less per point than Calgary. Have a better offensive line. Make opponents travel almost one and a half yards more per point and Passers have a 20 point worse rating against the Lions defense. On average the Lions are outscoring their opponents by over 14 points a game. BC by 21.

posted by apoch to commentary at 07:48 AM - 0 comments

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