January 07, 2016

How This Works

For this year's NFL Playoff Pick 'Em contest, SportsFilter is giving away a prize to the season's winner: A copy of Gregg Easterbrook's new book The Game's Not Over: In Defense of Football ($24.99 value).

We're using similar rules to the regular season contest. Pick who you think will win and by how many points. You then get points based on the result:

Picked the winner? You get 5 points
Picked the winner and a spread within the margin of error? You get 7 points
Picked the winner and the exact spread? You get 10 points

What's the Margin of Error?

A window around the spread that's defined as the following:

spread - round(0.3 * spread) <= Margin of Error <= spread + round(0.3 * spread)

You get rewarded for being close to the spread. The bigger the spread, the bigger the margin of error, so you don't have to be as accurate predicting a blowout as a close game. Examples:

Actual Spread	Margin Starts at	Margin Ends at
1	1	1
4	3	5
7	5	9
11	8	14
20	14	26

So if you picked Jacksonville by 15, here's how you'd fare given certain outcomes:

Outcome	Your score
Jacksonville by 20	7 points (winner + spread within MoE)
Jacksonville by 10	5 points (winner only)
Jacksonville by 15	10 points (winner + nailed spread)
Carolina by 15	0 points

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks

You can choose one or more games each week to be a Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock. This doubles the points you win for that game, but if that team loses, you lose 5 points (even if you get the spread). You're not required to pick any locks each week.

There also will be additional categories based on the performance of individual players, such as predicting the quarterback with the most passing yards or a player who will get an interception. Each of these will be worth 3 points.

In the last week of the contest, there will be a tiebreaker: Pick the total score of the Super Bowl and the closest total wins. If two players choose the same score, the one who posted it first wins.

The Small Print

^{In order to receive the prize, you must respond to our email within 14 days of the winner announcement. Make sure you have a valid email address on SportsFilter or contact me within that time period. The prize does not include international shipping, so in that situation you can pay the cost or receive an equivalent cash prize over Paypal.}

This Weekend's Games

Kansas City at Houston
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Seattle at Minnesota
Green Bay at Washington

Bonus Categories

Pick the quarterback with the most passing yards.
Pick the running back with the most rushing yards.
Pick the player with the most receiving yards.
Pick a player who will record a sack or partial sack.

Note: Pick one player for each, covering all of this weekend's games.

Picks must be submitted in this discussion before the game's kickoff. So if you miss Saturday's games you can still choose the Sunday games.

posted by rcade at 02:47 PM on January 07, 2016

KC over Houston by 4
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 10
Seattle over Minnesota by 7 - Lock It In
Washington over Green Bay by 3

posted by Rock Steady at 03:30 PM on January 07, 2016

Kansas City by 9 - LOCK
Pittsburgh by 6
Seattle by 10 - LOCK
Green Bay by 3

No additional categories for the first week?
(And if the lock can get me 2*5 points for simply picking the winner, the broken lock should cost me more than 3 points. Maybe 5 at least?)

posted by grum@work at 03:45 PM on January 07, 2016

No additional categories for the first week?

Oops. I've added four bonus categories.

(And if the lock can get me 2*5 points for simply picking the winner, the broken lock should cost me more than 3 points. Maybe 5 at least?)

Good point. I changed it to 5 points. That's less of a penalty than in the regular season, when breaking a lock cost what you could win by picking the winner and exact spread (3 points).

posted by rcade at 03:59 PM on January 07, 2016

OK, I'll play your silly little game -- oh wait, I've been playing it all season. I came close, but not too close, in the regular season, so this will give me another chance for glory. As Bullwinkle said to Rocky whenever Rocky questioned Bullwinkle's expertise, "This time for sure".

Kansas City by 6
Pittsburgh by 10 Big Ben vs A J McCarron makes this one a high-scoring LOCK
Seattle by 7 The Ballard LOCK moves east.
Green Bay by 9

posted by Howard_T at 04:32 PM on January 07, 2016

Pick the quarterback with the most passing yards - R. Wilson (SEA)
Pick the running back with the most rushing yards. - A. Peterson (MIN)
Pick the player with the most receiving yards. - D.Hopkins (HOU)
Pick a player who will record a sack or partial sack. - J.J.Watt (HOU)

posted by grum@work at 04:36 PM on January 07, 2016

Kansas City by 7

Pittsburgh by 4 (lock)

Seattle by 10 (Lock)

Washington by 10

QB most passing yards - Ben Roethlisberger

RB most rushing yards - Marshawn Lynch

Player most receiving yards - Antonio Brown

Player with sack - J.J. Watt

posted by ic23b at 05:18 PM on January 07, 2016

KC by 7

Pittsburgh by 7 - LOCK

Seattle by 17 - LOCK

Green Bay by 3

QB YDS: Ben Roethlisberger

RB YDS: Adrian Peterson

RX YDS: Antonio Brown

SACK: JJ Watt

posted by cixelsyd at 06:21 PM on January 07, 2016

Kansas City by 14 (Lock)

Pittsburgh by 10 (Lock)

Seattle by 23 (Lock)

Washington by 7 (Lock)

Big Ben
Alfred Morris
Antonio Brown
J.J. Watt

posted by Goyoucolts at 07:23 PM on January 07, 2016

Aaron Rodgers
DeAngelo Williams
AJ Green
JJ Watt

posted by bender at 08:52 PM on January 07, 2016

Houston by 3

Cincinnati by 7

Seattle by 14 LOCK

Washington by 6

Bonus Categories

Pick the quarterback with the most passing yards - Russell Wilson

Pick the running back with the most rushing yards. - Adrian Peterson

Pick the player with the most receiving yards. Doug Baldwin

Pick a player who will record a sack or partial sack. Bruce Irvin

posted by rumple at 03:02 AM on January 08, 2016

Kansas City by 7
Cincinnati by 3
Seattle by 10 - LOCK
Green Bay by 5

Pick the quarterback with the most passing yards - Russell Wilson
Pick the running back with the most rushing yards - Giovani Bernard
Pick the player with the most receiving yards - Antonio Brown
Pick a player who will record a sack or partial sack - JJ Watt

If elected, I will refuse Gregggg's book and you can send it to a needy orphan.

posted by yerfatma at 09:02 AM on January 08, 2016

Out of the 60 picks so far, 11 have been home teams.

posted by tron7 at 12:21 PM on January 08, 2016

Out of the 60 picks so far, 11 have been home teams

It might have been 10, but the Packer offense is so short of red blood cells at the moment that I felt compelled to pick Warshington.

Plus, I want to see Gruden do just well enough to keep his job, so a more worthy coach won't get sucked into the Snyder storm drain. Gruden is a fair match for that situation even though Tomsula is now available and would be an ideal hire for the benefit of those who are actively placing curses on the DC franchise.

If Snyder ever hired Millen, I'd go out and get an ice cream cone. And have a talented person in a blue dress from the Weather Channel pour Irish whiskey all over it and set it on fire.

Added thought: Marshawn will fumble at a critical time trying to extend a run in zero degree weather.

posted by beaverboard at 12:49 PM on January 08, 2016

OK--Restart! My inclusive picks (maybe slightly inconsistent with yesterday's)

Kansas City by 13
Cincinnati by 4
Seattle by 10 Lock (?)
Green Bay by 6

QB with most passing yds: Roethlisberger (380, 3 INT's)
RB with most rushing yds: J. Hill (Cin.)
Player with most receiving yds: A. Brown (Pitt.)
Player with sack: Atkins (Cin.)

Can you tell which game I'm interested in?

posted by tahoemoj at 02:07 PM on January 08, 2016

Kansas City by 7
Cincinnati by 6
Seattle by 10 LOCK
Green Bay by 3

Russell Wilson
Jeremy Hill
Antonio Brown
J.J. Watt

posted by holden at 03:08 PM on January 08, 2016

Nice to know what the prize is. How the fuck do I enter the damn contest?

First head on over to espn.com...

posted by tahoemoj at 03:41 PM on January 08, 2016

Kansas City over Houston by 10
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 7
Seattle over Minnesota by 14 *LOCK*
Washington over Green Bay by 10

Russell Wilson will be the quarterback with the most passing yards.
Jeremy Hill will be the running back with the most rushing yards.
Antonion Brown will be the player with the most receiving yards.
JJ Watt will be a player who will record a sack or partial sack.

Seattle better win on Sunday or this first round is going to be a bloodbath for a lot of us. :)

posted by hincandenza at 01:12 AM on January 09, 2016

Hopefully those that saw the news today about Lynch will come back into this thread and update their choices for running back.

posted by grum@work at 08:55 AM on January 09, 2016

Longtime reader, first time contest player. Here goes.

Kansas City by 9 Lock

Pittsburgh by 4

Minnesota by 2

Green Bay by 6

Passing: Roethlisberger

Rushing: G. Bernard

Receiving: A. Brown

Sack: Matthews(G.B.)

posted by mrk124 at 01:02 PM on January 09, 2016

rcade's gonna need a personal Cratchit or go editable to keep up with this

posted by beaverboard at 01:46 PM on January 09, 2016

Hopefully those that saw the news today about Lynch will come back into this thread and update their choices for running back.

Crap. I'm just now seeing it. If it's not too late, I'll change my running back pick to Adrian Peterson.

posted by NoMich at 06:57 PM on January 09, 2016

Pondering over. As in fantasy football, you can change an individual pick until that player kicks off.

posted by rcade at 12:59 PM on January 10, 2016

I don't see anything wrong with the NoMich switch.

posted by grum@work at 01:31 PM on January 10, 2016