November 19, 2012

Better Timing Triple Crown Winners: Some times ball players put up great offensive numbers in the Triple Crown categories, but they do it in the wrong year. Here are a list of hitters who might have won a Triple Crown if their timing was better.

Time line:
1947-2012

Process:
For each season, find the lowest league leading total for each Triple Crown category in a 5 year window (2 seasons before, current season, 2 seasons after).

I excluded 1994 and 1981 from the process because they are significantly shorter seasons than those around them (due to strikes).

1947 and 2012 only have 3-year windows (2 after or 2 before), while 1948 and 2011 only have 4-year windows (1 before and 2 after, or 2 before and 1 after).

Example: If we choose American League 2001, then the lowest league leading Triple Crown categories for the 5 year window are:

HR/RBI/AVG
2003: 47/145/.326
2002: 57/142/.349
2001: 52/141/.350
2000: 48/165/.372
1999: 48/165/.357

So, for 2001 we would check to see if any players had Triple Crown numbers of 47/141/.326.

Results:

Here is the list of players in the NL and AL who would have beat the 5-year window lowest Triple Crown totals for their season, but did not win the Triple Crown:

NL
1993 - Barry Bonds (46/123/.336)
1972 - Billy Williams (37/122/.333)
1954 - Willie Mays (41/110/.345), Duke Snider (40/130/.341)
1953 - Duke Snider (42/126/.336)

AL
2010 - Miguel Cabrera (38/126/.328)
1979 - Fred Lynn (39/122/.333)
1961 - Norm Cash (41/132/.361)
1953 - Al Rosen (43/145/.336)
1949 - Ted Williams (43/159.343)

Data:

Below is the raw 5-year window values I used for each season in each league.

NL

Season	HR	RBI	AVG

2012	39	115	336

2011	39	115	336

2010	39	115	336

2009	39	118	336

2008	42	118	336

2007	47	128	335

2006	48	128	335

2005	47	128	335

2004	47	128	335

2003	47	128	335

2002	47	128	350

2001	47	128	350

2000	49	128	350

1999	49	140	350

1998	47	140	353

1997	40	128	353

1996	40	123	353

1995	35	109	330

1993	35	109	319

1992	35	109	319

1991	35	109	319

1990	35	109	313

1989	38	109	313

1988	37	109	313

1987	37	109	313

1986	36	106	313

1985	36	106	323

1984	36	106	323

1983	36	106	323

1982	36	106	323

1980	37	109	323

1979	37	109	324

1978	38	118	324

1977	38	118	334

1976	36	120	334

1975	36	119	338

1974	36	119	333

1973	36	119	333

1972	36	119	333

1971	40	119	333

1970	36	105	333

1969	36	105	335

1968	36	105	335

1967	36	105	329

1966	36	105	329

1965	39	111	326

1964	44	119	326

1963	44	119	326

1962	41	119	325

1961	41	119	325

1960	41	119	325

1959	41	129	325

1958	41	109	325

1957	43	109	328

1956	43	109	328

1955	43	109	328

1954	37	109	328

1953	37	121	336

1952	37	121	336

1951	37	121	336

1950	37	121	336

1949	40	121	342

1948	40	126	342

1947	51	127	342



AL

Season	HR	RBI	AVG

2012	43	119	330

2011	39	119	330

2010	37	119	328

2009	37	119	328

2008	37	122	328

2007	37	122	328

2006	37	130	328

2005	43	137	326

2004	43	137	326

2003	43	141	326

2002	43	141	326

2001	47	141	326

2000	47	141	339

1999	47	141	339

1998	47	145	339

1997	48	126	339

1996	46	126	339

1995	43	124	343

1993	43	124	341

1992	43	124	329

1991	36	119	329

1990	36	119	329

1989	36	119	329

1988	36	119	329

1987	36	119	339

1986	40	121	343

1985	39	121	343

1984	39	121	332

1983	39	122	332

1982	39	122	332

1980	39	122	332

1979	39	119	332

1978	32	109	333

1977	32	109	333

1976	32	109	333

1975	32	109	333

1974	32	109	318

1973	32	109	318

1972	32	113	318

1971	32	113	318

1970	33	109	301

1969	33	109	301

1968	44	109	301

1967	32	108	301

1966	32	108	301

1965	32	108	316

1964	32	108	316

1963	32	108	321

1962	40	112	320

1961	40	112	320

1960	40	112	320

1959	40	112	320

1958	40	112	320

1957	37	112	328

1956	32	114	328

1955	32	114	337

1954	32	105	327

1953	32	105	327

1952	32	105	327

1951	32	105	327

1950	32	105	327

1949	32	114	343

1948	32	114	343

1947	32	114	343

posted by grum@work to at 01:33 PM - 0 comments