11/05/24
April 07, 2007
My problem here is the guy has something to sell. It's harder to treat him objectively because of that. I'd like to see statistics on how well his predictions have done, not just his assurance that they were pretty accurate last year.
posted by olelefthander at 04:41 PM on April 07, 2007
Even though Mathematics can explain and predict many things,it usually will fail when the human element is added.Just looking at his predictions tells me he is full of dog dirt.
posted by sickleguy at 05:23 PM on April 07, 2007
Although it seems highly unlikely that this will happen, can't help myself in praying that these mathematicians are right! ;-)
posted by Posada20 at 06:10 PM on April 07, 2007
They'd still have to win the Series Anyone remember Seattle?
posted by luther70 at 07:04 PM on April 07, 2007
They better get some pitchers...
posted by lil_brown_bat at 07:19 PM on April 07, 2007
Maybe there is some sort of cosmic balance. Bad pitching=clutch A-Rod. Good pitching=A-Rod playoff disappearing act.
posted by Ying Yang Mafia at 07:35 PM on April 07, 2007
110 seems a little excessive for any baseball team. math and baseball dont mix. the yankees will still probably win 100 games this year but no mathematical formula can predict injuries, rookie preformances, trades, etc. . . how many wins if they acquire clemens??? 130?
posted by GregBabbitt16 at 07:53 PM on April 07, 2007
I don't see the Yankees winning 110 games.Thats alot of games to win in a season.I still it will be close again with the Red Sox in the A.L. East.But there are a couple of teams that have improved alot in that division.
posted by Ghastly1 at 10:46 PM on April 07, 2007
math and baseball dont mix. Damn straight! Who needs projected totals or power rankings or fantasy leagues anyway?
posted by DrJohnEvans at 01:00 AM on April 09, 2007
Yep - I'm having a hard time seeing the pitching right now. Who the hell was that guy pitching yesterday? They need pitching. Nope - I'm not picking them to even make the playoffs. Riddled with injuries - they go down to third place and Steinbrenner spontaneously combusts. Hard to tell whether I'm predicting or merely fantasizing.
posted by WeedyMcSmokey at 07:51 AM on April 09, 2007
Any news on the A-Rod as a choker front?
posted by mbd1 at 09:03 AM on April 09, 2007
Yep - I'm having a hard time seeing the pitching right now. Who the hell was that guy pitching yesterday? They need pitching. From a distance I thought they were doing okay until I glanced at the latest Batter's Box post which featured the line for the first trip through the Yankees' rotation:
G GS W L QS IP H R ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERAY-y-y-y-yikes.
5 5 0 2 0 21.2 36 27 24 5 13 12 4.98 83.2 2.26 9.97
posted by DrJohnEvans at 10:17 AM on April 09, 2007
Would love to see the same chart for every team's first five. The Sox, among other teams with supposedly great pitching, would have some woeful numbers too (though maybe not as bad as the Yankees this particular week.)
posted by tieguy at 10:35 AM on April 09, 2007
The New York Yankees will win a whopping 110 games this season, more than any other major league team, according to a mathematician who applies math to real-life situations. How novel. I don't know anybody who does that. And he has some combination of six of the 14 teams in the AL making the playoffs. Clearly, he's got this whole thing figured out. With all due respect to mathematicians -- and there is plenty due -- I would as soon take the word of a good psychic as a good mathematician when it comes to the season-long behavior of baseball teams. There is just too much random human element to make too much of anybody's predictions over anyone else's. There have been seasons in which clubs like the Indians and Reds pulled the plug on their season even when it appeared they were still in the thick of the chase. And so far this guy is taking a beating betting on the Yankees. Any news on the A-Rod as a choker front? Here's an invitation to eyerolling, but it is fact: the update on A-Rod is that he has predictably jumped out to accumlate huge stats and highlights against two of the three worst teams in the AL. The grand slam was exciting and a great shot in the arm for the Yanks, but they have two weekend series against the Red Sox in April, and I can guarantee that, whether he is a success or failure or non-factor in those series, even a game-winning grand slam against Baltimore will be a scarce mental footnote in the minds of Yankees fans by the end of the month. Of course, if the Yankees pitching doesn't turn around pretty soon, A-Rod could conceivably hit 30 homers this month and still not garner a mention in the tabloids. At this point, only Mussina and Pettitte are guaranteed to improve if healthy.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 11:02 AM on April 09, 2007
The Sox, among other teams with supposedly great pitching, would have some woeful numbers too (though maybe not as bad as the Yankees this particular week.) Really? I'll take middle of the pack over last place.
posted by yerfatma at 01:42 PM on April 09, 2007
Really? I'll take middle of the pack over last place. No doubt, but middle of the pack vs. last place means nothing when the leaves haven't even come out yet.
posted by lil_brown_bat at 04:57 PM on April 09, 2007
Absolutely, I'm just not sure how the equivalence worked. The natural conclusion of all this anti-Eastern elitist bias is going to be for Sox and Yankee fans to join together into a rampaging mob of ego, self-pity and muscle. And then we'll see how you flyover states like it.
posted by yerfatma at 05:17 PM on April 09, 2007
then we'll see how you flyover states like it. What about us flyover provinces? Gotta love those first place Blue Jays!
posted by tommybiden at 05:38 PM on April 09, 2007
tommytrump, look out for the Royals tonight (2.93 ERA.) The pitching looks fantastic so far this year. Don't get me wrong, we know they will probably be average, but around here, there is an overwhelming attitude of, "Hooray! We might not suck!"
posted by hawkguy at 05:53 PM on April 09, 2007
The Sox, among other teams with supposedly great pitching, would have some woeful numbers too posted by tieguy So far, you're wrong, as yerfatma already pointed out. And it is early, but yankee pitching looks pretty bad, though they're getting good pitching tonight. The yankee lineup is scary. If they get good pitching, I'm not sure anyone can hang with them. If they don't, and boston (or a couple of other teams) gets good pitching NY becomes a fantastic slow pitch softball team that's very beatable. The question you have to ask yourself is how good NY would be if Jeter moves from short. Of course, he just made a spinning off balance off line throw on a routine play up the middle that the announcers called terrific. They did point out that he was on the field taking grounders at 1pm so he "knows where he is on the field" whatever the hell that means. It's all so confusing to me.
posted by justgary at 07:37 PM on April 09, 2007
Six games in, I was starting to worry that I wouldn't have another full summer of reading about Jeter's defensive shortcomings. Thanks for the update Gary. I guess Matsuzaka didn't start today.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 09:21 PM on April 09, 2007
Thanks for the update Gary. I've said before I don't watch jeter enough to know exactly where he rates defensively. Waswatching is a well respected yankees blog among yankee fans, so I'd say it's a little more valid than saying "jeter sucks". I'd say it's pretty big news. With no hidden agenda, a guy who obviously is a jeter/ny fan saying he should move over worthy of being discussed. At least every where but here it seems. And though it's not out of line with this thread, I'd say this (plus another one along the same line that's out there) would be a perfect front page post, so I stand by it. But it would only get generic 'jeter is overrated posts' and complaints that I must just hate the guy. So why bother. Feel free to look at my comment/post history if you think I'm unfair when it comes to jeter. And if you still think I am do what I do when you frequently put down yaz. Realize it's nothing personal. It's late, and I'm tired, but I'm baffled by your response. Not everyone is out to get jeter. He takes a lot of shit, I agree. But when respected voices start asking questions, I'm not sure why we have to put our heads in the sand. Or why your snark about Matsuzaka is appropriate at all.
posted by justgary at 10:01 PM on April 09, 2007
Sorry, Gary. I'm tired, too. My comment was a much more good-natured jab in my head than it came out. I understand why you read it as you did -- looking at it now, it doesn't read well to me either. Again, sorry about that. As far as the importance of the link, honestly, I say meh. Yankees fans as much as anybody have a tendency to overreact to what they're currently watching. (Feel free to look at my comment history for an example of that.) Jeter has been playing terrible defense so far this year, guys like Rob Neyer are using this slump as an opportunity to remind us that they told us so, and absent any other good explanation (except, of course, "it's a slump," which happens to the best players on both ends of the game) I'm sure some Yankees fans are starting to believe the anti-hype hype (and are more inclined to turn comments like "Jeter has better range to his right than to his left" into "Jeter is awful going to his left"). And I'm sure there are also Yankees fans who are drinking the Prospectus Kool Aid and letting the numbers trump what we've seen the past few years up until the last several horrible games. And I'm sure nobody in the world is having better sex than the sex my ex-girlfriend is having with her new boyfriend in my head. The Matsuzaka snark, which again was intended good naturedly, was just a nod to my observation that Dice-K is fast becoming, in many ways, the fascination/savior figure in Boston that Jeter has been in New York. And you'll never hear me say anything bad about the ballplayer that Yaz was (if you continue to check my comment history, I think you'll find your use of "frequently" is excessively strong). I'm sorry you took my comment personally -- I honestly didn't take yours as such, and to the extent that my reply was personal it was with a soft elbow to the ribs, not a hard poke in the eye.
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 11:07 PM on April 09, 2007
With no hidden agenda, a guy who obviously is a jeter/ny fan saying he should move over worthy of being discussed. while i highly value Steve's opinions (even though i don't always agree with him), i think it's too early to freak out now. moving Jeter from short is something that will have to be done in the off season. don't expect anyone in the organization to even entertain this issue during the season. yeah, those 3 errors in 2 games were pretty ugly. even fans at the stadium who usually shrug off Jeter's errors and poor range to his left were getting pissed off (but i think the cold and the shitty pitching from the starters contributed to that as well). "past a diving jeter" has become catch-phrase for michael kay. but still, i think it's too early in the season to be overly concerned about his range deteriorating. i'm more concerned about his throws to first actually, which seem to getting a bit erratic. i don't think i've seen him throw one chest high yet this year. but, that is something he's capable of improving, more so than moving to his left. and as long as Torre is in charge, Jeter's not moving unless he wants to. and as long as A-Rod is still on the team, i highly doubt that he would want to.
posted by goddam at 11:27 PM on April 09, 2007
i'm more concerned about his throws to first actually, which seem to getting a bit erratic. My theory is that Jeter keeps looking up to make the throw and thinking, "Who the hell is that?"
posted by The Crafty Sousepaw at 12:53 PM on April 10, 2007
If A-Rod keeps adding to his resume of being a choker like he did today, I have a hard time seeing the Yankees winning 110.